Let's play "Antibodies for Alzheimers!"







Not even close.
I don't know about you, but I'm going to buy a ton of out of the money puts starting in November.

Worst Case - Phase 3 trial doesn't meet its primary endpoint...stock tanks.

Best Case - The trial has a statistically significant, but clinically meaningless endpoint. Stock will not tank, but will drop nicely.

It is a win-win regardless of the outcome. muwhaahahaha.
 






I don't know about you, but I'm going to buy a ton of out of the money puts starting in November.

Worst Case - Phase 3 trial doesn't meet its primary endpoint...stock tanks.

Best Case - The trial has a statistically significant, but clinically meaningless endpoint. Stock will not tank, but will drop nicely.

It is a win-win regardless of the outcome. muwhaahahaha.

a P/E of 40 is insane. Somethings gotta give, but I don't touch options, too much price rigging
 












I don't know about you, but I'm going to buy a ton of out of the money puts starting in November.

Worst Case - Phase 3 trial doesn't meet its primary endpoint...stock tanks.

Best Case - The trial has a statistically significant, but clinically meaningless endpoint. Stock will not tank, but will drop nicely.

It is a win-win regardless of the outcome. muwhaahahaha.
Don't gobblefunk around with words!
 




























































careful with that antibody, Eugene

Human amyloid-beta acts as natural antibiotic in the brain: Alzheimer's-associated amyloid plaques may trap microbes
Date:
May 25, 2016
Source:
Massachusetts General Hospital
Summary:
A new study provides additional evidence that amyloid-beta protein -- which is deposited in the form of beta-amyloid plaques in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease -- is a normal part of the innate immune system, the body's first-line defense against infection.
 












The implications are YUGE
ALIEN-GUY.jpg
 












I don't know about you, but I'm going to buy a ton of out of the money puts starting in November.

Worst Case - Phase 3 trial doesn't meet its primary endpoint...stock tanks.

Best Case - The trial has a statistically significant, but clinically meaningless endpoint. Stock will not tank, but will drop nicely.

It is a win-win regardless of the outcome. muwhaahahaha.

The whole recent phase 3 trial was based on "data dredging" or "p-value hacking". Let's look at the studied FALSE POSITIVE error rates for p-values. For instance, a p-value of 0.05, that magical value in pharma, leads to a probability of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis of AT LEAST 23% and typically can reach levels as high as 50%. A p-value of 0.01 has a false positive error rate of at least 7%.

Remember that reps the next time you start throwing p-values around an office. Sir Ronald Fisher who developed the p-value statistic never ever meant it to be used as a binary accept/reject criterion. The idea that the prior study in Alzheimers showed clinically benefit in a subset of patients was essentially just a little better than a coin flip.
 






https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/11/161117151205.htm

The study is published in the journal Science.

Studying human brain tissue, the UNSW and Neuroscience Research Australia research team identified a protein, kinase p38γ, which is lost as AD progresses. When they reintroduced the protein into the brains of mice, it was shown to have a protective effect against memory deficits associated with the disease.

"This study has completely changed our understanding of what happens in the brain during the development of Alzheimer's disease," said lead author UNSW Professor Lars Ittner.