Of course there‘s no “talk” of layoffs. There was no “talk“ of Animal Health becoming independent of Human Health either. It is not smart for any organization to let employees think layoffs are coming. But, at the risk of the inevitable middle school-esque replies that may come, consider the following (which is all available “open source”) :
-Farxiga has a generic available now (and you better believe talks are in the works with Medicare to bring the price down)
-Farxiga beat Jardiance to market by 7 months back in 2014. How long before BI releases its own AG?
-2 other dapa generic manufacturers WILL have a generic on the market by October 2025
-Even though Jardiance has many years left until expiry, that’s no guarantee that reps will promote it up until expiry. Many companies stop active promotion well before the end of a drugs patent life. Just ask an old Januvia rep the last time they promoted Januvia, yet it doesn’t expire until 2026 and made 2.3 billion on 2023 with no share of voice for the year and a half prior.
-Even though Jardiance has Medicare contracts for years, there’s no guarantee language won’t be Included that states patients must “ try and fail” a generic first. it will still be “covered“, but additional hoops may likely be coming for patients to jump through
-A new study less than 2 weeks old states a certain GLP1 demonstrated 38% RRR in HF with preserved EF.That indication will launch 2025.
-The new Medicare Part D changes will have a catastrophic cap of $2,000 and patients will pay $0 toward their drug costs after that. This is a large cost for companies to absorb, so anytime you hear it’s been “factored in” just remember headcount reductions are part of that factor
-The new IRA costs for Farxiga, Jardiance, and others have been set (just not released yet). Although the changes don’t go into effect until 2026, changes to the sales structure will need to happen well before that.
Things are changing quickly. It’s just smart to see what’s happening and objectively come to the conclusion that certain changes to the field force need to happen. Tale-tell signs are overly optimistic assessments of the short-term future, talk of the importance of collaboration, and the need for urgency as there needs to be as many new scripts as possible before restructure occurs. This isn’t to say everyone will be let go. It also isn’t to say that BI reps won’t have a bright future. But for the next 3 years there will definitely be a large change/reduction to the existing sales force. It’s just a matter of when.