Did we learn anything today?

[Anonymous]

Such cowards...the deal is done and apparently it was too rich for Pfizer which is a great thing for us. What the stock does now day to day is irrelevant. You don't walk away from a deal because you didn't want to up the ante by $20. They knew $120 was the basement. Guessing their first bid WASN'T $138! You trolls have no idea!

"Trolls" is a bit harsh, but I agree. The current stock price is irrelevant to the purchase price of the company. The stock will sell for some premium above what the stock price was BEFORE the Amgen news leaked out, and the amount is likely to be closer to double the $80ish the stock was, not the mere 40% or so premium ($120/share) that Amgen originally offered. I hear about people who couldn't wait to sell their stock at $135 and scratch my head in wonder. I guess if the rice goes any lower though, I'll be buying more shares.

 

[Anonymous]

"Trolls" is a bit harsh, but I agree. The current stock price is irrelevant to the purchase price of the company. The stock will sell for some premium above what the stock price was BEFORE the Amgen news leaked out, and the amount is likely to be closer to double the $80ish the stock was, not the mere 40% or so premium ($120/share) that Amgen originally offered. I hear about people who couldn't wait to sell their stock at $135 and scratch my head in wonder. I guess if the rice goes any lower though, I'll be buying more shares.

Gilead at 11.7 billion...they like that number.

 

[Anonymous]

Gilead at 11.7 billion...they like that number.

It get's my one shareholder vote!

 

[Anonymous]

Such cowards...the deal is done and apparently it was too rich for Pfizer which is a great thing for us. What the stock does now day to day is irrelevant. You don't walk away from a deal because you didn't want to up the ante by $20. They knew $120 was the basement. Guessing their first bid WASN'T $138! You trolls have no idea!

So what do you think of Amgen's new offer at $130. I know people are still saying $145 is the number. I am so ready to cash out and hit the beach.

 

[Anonymous]

So what do you think of Amgen's new offer at $130. I know people are still saying $145 is the number. I am so ready to cash out and hit the beach.

What "new offer at $130" are you referencing?

 

[Anonymous]

So what do you think of Amgen's new offer at $130. I know people are still saying $145 is the number. I am so ready to cash out and hit the beach.

It's going to happen but I'm not sure why anyone thinks there is going to be an announcement anytime soon. Even if a deal has been reached in principal it could take several weeks for the announcement.

 

[Anonymous]

"Trolls" is a bit harsh, but I agree. The current stock price is irrelevant to the purchase price of the company. The stock will sell for some premium above what the stock price was BEFORE the Amgen news leaked out, and the amount is likely to be closer to double the $80ish the stock was, not the mere 40% or so premium ($120/share) that Amgen originally offered. I hear about people who couldn't wait to sell their stock at $135 and scratch my head in wonder. I guess if the rice goes any lower though, I'll be buying more shares.

And what fundamentals are you looking at to give you this price of approximately $160?

 

[Anonymous]

And what fundamentals are you looking at to give you this price of approximately $160?

Unlikely...but stranger things have happened. This is a two horse race Amgen and Gilead. Amgen is desperate and so is Onyx, that is why we were "put up for sale" on June 30th. The board rolled the dice, thought Pfizer, Celegene or someone, anyone...would start the bidding war at much higher level. We all have seen some players have dropped out. We rejected $120, and the board would look stupid to accept any thing less than $130 or at least cheap and petty. $160 is high, my guess is $140-150 range, likely $145. This is Tony's legacy, if a deal isn't done nicely, he'll be playing golf with his buddy Ted for the rest of his life and counting his millions. Time will tell. The current stock price means shit, it is all in the deal.

 

[Anonymous]

And what fundamentals are you looking at to give you this price of approximately $160?

From another thread and to me it makes sense...let's use Alexion to show that there is no 'fundamental' valuation method for biotech...


Did you think we’d see $136 a month ago? Did you think we’d turn down $120 a share a month ago? Heavy investors are still buying in the $130’s…they’re not buying in to be sold at $140. If $120 was ‘substantially undervalued’ in TC’s mind $140 is not ‘accurately valued’. There are many different ways to do company valuations especially in biotech which has less to do with current revenue models but prospective models. Biotech like the tech industry is the second coming of the gold rush…it’s all based on speculation. Does Alexion’s mkt cap make any sense based on their revenue when using traditional valuations when compared to that of Onyx? Of course not. We’ve all read the same reports that say Amgen’s $120 was an "over bid" and conversely we’ve read that ONXX could fetch as much as $180-$200. Since it’s all over the place I would say that noting is out of question at this point, and futher tells you that there is not 'fundamental' valuations method in place.

My thinking is a 16% increase from the Amgen offer of $120, that TC scoffed at, is not going to get it done so scratch $140 off the board. If $140 is not going to get it done let’s bump it up to $150 a share which is a 25% increase from Amgen’s $120 a share. So let’s say that TC thought that Amgen’s offer was 25% undervalued, which I believe would be the minimum percentage break point for being called "significantly undervalued". That brings the fair market value, in TC’s mind to $150. Add in multiple bidders and you can throw on another 10% premium due to up bids. That is how I come to $165 and that is why Pfizer walked away...they wouldn't walk away if the bids where in the ballpark of $135. They had to know the bidding was going to start at a minimum of $135...

Lastly my advice is to stop looking at what the share price is doing now as that has zero effect on what a deal price will be. Pfizer was rumored to be out and cowards sold off...that's it. There is no less than four remaining and probably a few the talking heads have no idea about so my guess there are at least 7 interested companies. The press, especially blogs like MF and SA are notoriously wrong in these situations so I would say believe half of what you see and none of what you read...

 

[Anonymous]

From another thread and to me it makes sense...let's use Alexion to show that there is no 'fundamental' valuation method for biotech...


Did you think we’d see $136 a month ago? Did you think we’d turn down $120 a share a month ago? Heavy investors are still buying in the $130’s…they’re not buying in to be sold at $140. If $120 was ‘substantially undervalued’ in TC’s mind $140 is not ‘accurately valued’. There are many different ways to do company valuations especially in biotech which has less to do with current revenue models but prospective models. Biotech like the tech industry is the second coming of the gold rush…it’s all based on speculation. Does Alexion’s mkt cap make any sense based on their revenue when using traditional valuations when compared to that of Onyx? Of course not. We’ve all read the same reports that say Amgen’s $120 was an "over bid" and conversely we’ve read that ONXX could fetch as much as $180-$200. Since it’s all over the place I would say that noting is out of question at this point, and futher tells you that there is not 'fundamental' valuations method in place.


My thinking is a 16% increase from the Amgen offer of $120, that TC scoffed at, is not going to get it done so scratch $140 off the board. If $140 is not going to get it done let’s bump it up to $150 a share which is a 25% increase from Amgen’s $120 a share. So let’s say that TC thought that Amgen’s offer was 25% undervalued, which I believe would be the minimum percentage break point for being called "significantly undervalued". That brings the fair market value, in TC’s mind to $150. Add in multiple bidders and you can throw on another 10% premium due to up bids. That is how I come to $165 and that is why Pfizer walked away...they wouldn't walk away if the bids where in the ballpark of $135. They had to know the bidding was going to start at a minimum of $135...

Lastly my advice is to stop looking at what the share price is doing now as that has zero effect on what a deal price will be. Pfizer was rumored to be out and cowards sold off...that's it. There is no less than four remaining and probably a few the talking heads have no idea about so my guess there are at least 7 interested companies. The press, especially blogs like MF and SA are notoriously wrong in these situations so I would say believe half of what you see and none of what you read...

I like your analysis as it makes more sense than the crap being posted on MF and the street. Are you an Onyx trader or employee? My guess is you haven't sold or panicked but are holding out for the deals end.

 

[Anonymous]

I like your analysis as it makes more sense than the crap being posted on MF and the street. Are you an Onyx trader or employee? My guess is you haven't sold or panicked but are holding out for the deals end.

I agree with your take…look at what just a little bit of news did today…right back up to a high of $132.26. If the banks are saying $140 then my guess is $150 is the deal price. This thing is going to bounce around back and forth until the deal is announced. The best thing I saw written so far is that Pfizer backed out because the bids got out of hand…and now the news is they are back in or never left!!! Here’s to bids being out of hand means $165+!!!

 

[Anonymous]

I agree with your take…look at what just a little bit of news did today…right back up to a high of $132.26. If the banks are saying $140 then my guess is $150 is the deal price. This thing is going to bounce around back and forth until the deal is announced. The best thing I saw written so far is that Pfizer backed out because the bids got out of hand…and now the news is they are back in or never left!!! Here’s to bids being out of hand means $165+!!!

News flash. Merck has been in this deal the whole time, get your companies straight. They are very quiet. Remember a short few years ago? All quiet then boom, 45 billion dished out for SP. They have the cash and like to nickel and dime. SP employees got squat for stock/severance. How you ask? Research Reverse Mergers. Merck uses this tactic all the time, a pharma loophole of sorts. I am not saying we will get nothing. Probably 25% of what we had expected. We shall see.

 

[Anonymous]

News flash. Merck has been in this deal the whole time, get your companies straight. They are very quiet. Remember a short few years ago? All quiet then boom, 45 billion dished out for SP. They have the cash and like to nickel and dime. SP employees got squat for stock/severance. How you ask? Research Reverse Mergers. Merck uses this tactic all the time, a pharma loophole of sorts. I am not saying we will get nothing. Probably 25% of what we had expected. We shall see.

A reverse merger is something a private company does to acquire a public company and go public in the process. Not sure how that applies to the merk-schering merger unless you are suggesting merck first set up a shell company with 45 billion in cash, acquired schering to form a new public entity and then bought that public entity. Not saying that didn't happen but would be good to see some sources to back your claim.

 

[Anonymous]

News flash. Merck has been in this deal the whole time, get your companies straight. They are very quiet. Remember a short few years ago? All quiet then boom, 45 billion dished out for SP. They have the cash and like to nickel and dime. SP employees got squat for stock/severance. How you ask? Research Reverse Mergers. Merck uses this tactic all the time, a pharma loophole of sorts. I am not saying we will get nothing. Probably 25% of what we had expected. We shall see.

Oh my are you a crazy one. First reverse mergers would have zero impact on the share price. Second they are generally done between a private company acquiring a public company and generally because the publicly company is in bad financial shape. None of those scenarios seem likely nor would it pass a shareholder vote if is devalued the shares.

 

[Anonymous]

I agree with your take…look at what just a little bit of news did today…right back up to a high of $132.26. If the banks are saying $140 then my guess is $150 is the deal price. This thing is going to bounce around back and forth until the deal is announced. The best thing I saw written so far is that Pfizer backed out because the bids got out of hand…and now the news is they are back in or never left!!! Here’s to bids being out of hand means $165+!!!

I did see where one bank downgraded from buy to hold saying that the target price would be around $140 and that they did not feel there was enough upside at that price to buy the stock.

 

[Anonymous]

A reverse merger is something a private company does to acquire a public company and go public in the process. Not sure how that applies to the merk-schering merger unless you are suggesting merck first set up a shell company with 45 billion in cash, acquired schering to form a new public entity and then bought that public entity. Not saying that didn't happen but would be good to see some sources to back your claim.

I don't want to write a novel here but search "merck reverse merger". They changed the status-company name three times in a loophole shell game. Went to court over it and won. We could end up with diluted worthless Merck stock. Also, look at the Merck threads. To avoid paying severance with the WARN act they let 99 (under 100) employees go at a time every few days. By doing this it isn't considered mass layoffs and they follow another loophole. Do some research on the exec team. Especially the ceo ken frazier. They are jds not mds. Big pharma is ruthless. Do not assume "they have to pay me out".

 

[Anonymous]

I don't want to write a novel here but search "merck reverse merger". They changed the status-company name three times in a loophole shell game. Went to court over it and won. We could end up with diluted worthless Merck stock. Also, look at the Merck threads. To avoid paying severance with the WARN act they let 99 (under 100) employees go at a time every few days. By doing this it isn't considered mass layoffs and they follow another loophole. Do some research on the exec team. Especially the ceo ken frazier. They are jds not mds. Big pharma is ruthless. Do not assume "they have to pay me out".

I am very familiar with the Merck/SP deal and this has zero parallels. SP was not being auctioned in a bidding war nor had a cash offer on the table. It was struggling financially and was desperate. That is the exact opposite of what is happening with ONXX. Get a clue on M&A's beyond Google...it makes you look foolish.

 

[Anonymous]

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Try $ dummy. You are such fools with no business sense. I know you hire state skool people with pe duhgrees but please! Onyx? What a joke. All will be fired and left with enough to buy a used ford taurus. We all enjoy your stock analysis payout on this site, third grade math at its best. After terms and dilution don't forget to subtract 42%.

 

[Anonymous]

Try $ dummy. You are such fools with no business sense. I know you hire state skool people with pe duhgrees but please! Onyx? What a joke. All will be fired and left with enough to buy a used ford taurus. We all enjoy your stock analysis payout on this site, third grade math at its best. After terms and dilution don't forget to subtract 42%.

Awesome that leaves me with $1.4M free and clear if sold at $140 without counting on the unvested being accelerated. If that happens it's just icing. What was your point again? If it was to be funny that didn't work...what else ya got?

 

[Anonymous]

Try $ dummy. You are such fools with no business sense. I know you hire state skool people with pe duhgrees but please! Onyx? What a joke. All will be fired and left with enough to buy a used ford taurus. We all enjoy your stock analysis payout on this site, third grade math at its best. After terms and dilution don't forget to subtract 42%.

Well, I guess we have certainly been told off. Please tell us Mr. IV Leeg degrre, why are you trolling on this site? Shouldn't you be closing big deals on Wall Street or curing incurable diseases? While us PE duhgree majurs sure do preciate you smart fellers comin on an teachin us a thang or 2 but plees, go bak to makin shur our guvment is workin rite an that u an ur privat skool frat brothers r keepin us dummys from makin mistakes.