Argos Therapeutics

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And to clarify, Dr. Snyderman is a generalist and has never been close to the field of dendritic cell based immune therapy. He's more of a champion of "proactive" vs "reactive" healthcare and more a champion of planning for health long term. That's the point about his appointment being simply an "inside" tactic that doesn't represent his personal belief that ARGS will succeed anytime soon. In principle, he along with many others in the field can appreciate that ARGS is trying to develop an individualized treatment for each cancer patient. It simply doesn't mean that they will succeed.

Again, with the control arm median OS already "achieved" at between 15-18 months per Company projections and the reality that a good percentage (probably 2/3) of the AGS-003 arm subjects now out in follow up or dead after 21-24 months of follow up by the early 2017 time frame ... this means that if the study is not concluded during the February 2017 data review meeting, the study is most likely doomed to failure because it will clearly indicate that the difference in survival between the 2 arms is either negligible or insignificant with nearly 75% of events / deaths recorded.

Investors should be ready to sell quickly and certainly should sell if their is an insider driven uptick in stock price over the next 4 weeks leading up and through the JP Morgan conference and pre-data review meeting.

No readout in February 2017 spells the following simple equation for ARGS:

ARGS = DNDN(2) = FAILURE(2) for dendritic cell immune therapy.

SH = INSIDER = Well, you get my drift. Ignore his suggestions and lies and you will benefit short and long term if you have invested in ARGS.
 












By the way, Ralph Snyderman was the kind of "generalist" who won the 2012 David E. Rogers Award from the Association of American Medical Colleges, recognizing him as "The Father of Personalized Medicine." and the 2016 winner of the Pioneer Award at the Personalized Medicine World Conference. If he chooses to spent his time at Argos, it's probably for some reason other than he has nothing better to do.
 






There will be no early readout Donkey aka Burro aka one of the "asinus" species otherwise referred to in the animal kingdom as "asses". As a male ass or burro, one must first appreciate your origin. You hail from Argos Therapeutics and reside at 4233 Technology Drive when not feeding at the stable or in the pasture.

Now beyond the origins of SH - it's clear the company was parading the notion of early readout when your core management team went about raising money earlier this year. One could refer to the discussions some of my core investor friends had with one coiffed lad by the name of "Chuck". He is if the most arrogant species and indicated the study would readout by early 2017. And we have all been led to believe the company is blinded to the results. Hmmmm ... Lead scientific officer ... Is he manipulating data or sneaking a peak at something he shouldn't?

Regardless - those predictions are now being backed away from and the reality is the study will not readout in early 2017.

Based upon the following tangible facts that even a donkey / burro / male ass might find in one of several company released or recorded quarterly updates or CEO presentations ...

1) trial enrolled 450 patients between early 2013 and July 2015, with nearly 2/3 enrolled as of late 2014 per scientific presentations

2) control arm projected to survive 15 months

3) AGS003 arm needs to achieve about a 6 month improvement in survival (eg., 21 months)

4) trial follow up 18-24 months for majority of study subjects based upon timing of enrollment

With these facts and access to real biostatisticians on the outside of ARGS, it is now CLEAR that if this study does not readout in Feb 2017 (highly doubtful), this signals the following:

1) Control arm patients living longer
2) AGS003 not improving survival to the extent expected or predicted from a 21 patient uncontrolled study with non-validated immune signal
3) a little bit of 1 and 2 combined and a trial that will prove AGS003 was not only non-toxic but also not effective when added to standard treatment

SH - go on break and take some time to reflect. When you can uncover what Dr Snyderman has done to advance personalized immune therapy for cancer ... tuck it away and let some other uninterested parties know about it. The reality is you won't find it.

The bigger reality is you are a burro and in fact an insider. The SEC will be knocking in early 2017 after your data committee says nothing and the investigation into your lies and others will ensue. A failed trial with a lot of unsupported projections of success by your core management team will be frowned upon as you've all contined to mislead the public investors.

Enjoy your final holiday at home in civilian clothes. The stripes will look great and your cell mate "Bubba" can't wait to hang out with you daily.

ARGS = DNDN(2) = FAILURE(2)
 






Last post with trial projections is interesting. If this person is correct and the survival projections were accurate (control arm - 15 months; AGS arm - 21 months; most patients are now between 18-36 months of follow up by early 2017, with most being out past 24 months of follow up from study entry), then it's simple math.

This study has to readout in early 2017 if it is going to be positive. The median survival projections have been surpassed by most patients on both arms.

If it doesn't readout it does appear as though the treatment arms have and will continue to be associated with similar not different survival - statisticians refer to this as lack of separation of the curves.

Hmmm - holding pattern here. Not sure it's a good time to buy or sell.
 






Bottom dwellers are carelessly scooping up ARGS to start the holiday break. Based upon the prior post, which appears to be on target with what will happen with or without a trial readout in early 2017, this is a stock folks ought to steer clear of unless they are in a holding pattern. Why?

1) Nearly 2/3 of study enrolled by end of 2014
2) It's 2 years later and thus nearly 2/3 of the study subjects have been followed for between 2-4 years
3) Average survival for this group of kidney cancer patients projected to be in the 15 month range
4) The study hasn't been "called" and the results have not been "unblended" yet, which means it's most likely going to be a negative study.
5) If the AGS-003 arm was outperforming the control arm of this study, the data monitoring committee most likely would have had the data before Feb 2017 to call the study for superiority.
6) Vaccine trials in cancer that go longer than anticipated do so because the treatment is non-toxic, yet ineffective.

ARGS unfortunately appears to be another company on the long bandwagon of vaccine based companies to get to phase 3 based upon uncontrolled early phase studies and fail.

Everyone seeking a cheap stock at the bottom of the price range ought to look elsewhere. ARGS is most likely going to sink to penny stock status in 2017 without any positive trial results.
 






I'm kind of reminded of the Kobayashi Maru test from Star Trek, which Captain Kirk rigged so he could win it. During the test, with the Klingons shooting and closing in, McCoy says to Kirk: "Should we do something, like, shoot back?" And Kirk says: "Don't worry about it."

So, as we approach February, and DOOM as one here would put it, guess how worried insiders are about what is going to happen?

The answer would be that not one insider has ever sold a single share of stock, as we approach the critically important IDMC meeting in February.

The 15 months was the baseline for the first study, which had about half poor risk patients and half intermediate risk. But, the phase 3 study stacked the deck with more intermediate risk patients, who were living longer. 23 months is the baseline for those types of patients, i.e. an extra 8 months on average for the control arm. That means that if you want to demonstrate more overall survival with intermediate risk patients, it takes longer. By amazing coincidence, the next IDMC meeting was scheduled for February, which is some 8 months after their last meeting.

The setting up the trial with intermediate risk patients is as close to rigging the phase 3 trial for success as you can get. Argos had its best results with these types of patients in phase 2. They don't have to cure cancer - they just have to demonstrate that AGS-003 is at least an incremental improvement. Apparently, even anonymous recognizes that AGS-003 is not toxic, what all by itself is an improvement over the toxicity of the current standard of care.

Anonymous says I'm an insider. I'm not. Do what you want to do. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.
 






SH is an insider and now it's clear who he is with the Star Trek reference. The soon to be former head of commercial for ARGS is not only lying about his affiliation with ARGS but he is also not disclosing one very, very important fact about the core insiders at ARGS. They have only ever invested and have never been able to profit from their investment pre or post IPO. They simply are forbidden and further would only be taking losses.

Regardless, this RTP based company is going to suffer the same fate as a neighboring RTP based company. Go checkout Cempra (CEMP) today and see how they have plummeted nearly 90% in value since October. Their product is toxic and doesn't work.

The only difference for ARGS vs CEMP in 2017:

AGS003 will fail to provide any benefit in the p3 study but at least it will prove that it's not toxic!! (see previous post by another Anon poster - makes perfect sense that the median should have been achieved and thus the 6 month improvement should have been evident by now ... So if there is no news in Feb 2017 ... There is no positive trial readout for this study ever).

SH = Insider = Head of Commercial = LNPL (eg., late night posting loser)

ARGS = DNDN(2) = 2017 FAILURE = 2017 Penny Stock
 












Yer ass is my source SH. As the head of commercial at ARGS, you know that the entire base and core investors can't sell unless they are authorized by JA. You are such a quirky burro. Now get back to your pasture and kick your hind legs only when I brand your ass with a big "L".

To all non insiders, don't forget:

ARGS = DNDN(2) = Failure in 2017 = Penny Stock in 2017 when DMC returns nothing but a trial should continue verdict.

SH = Insider = Burro = Big L
 












SH is an insider (eg, he heads up commercial at ARGS) and he's finally posted something worth noting here on CP, although it's still probably against company policy for employees to post opinions on sites like CP. Nonetheless, as SH pointed out with his latest post and link, the trial was supposed to readout in 2015. Yes, the company indicated at some point that the study would take longer to enroll and of course they concluded 2/3 of enrollment by end of 2014 and finished up full enrollment to their study during mid-2015. With all of that shared, it's now as simple as follows:

1) 100% certainty that if the study continues and is not stopped for superiority / survival benefit in February 2017 (eg., next month, which means the data are already being cleaned and scrubbed for the DMC to review), the study is DOOMED to failure.

2) Let's repeat that in simpler terms, if the data committee indicates the study should continue without any further comments after the Feb 2017 meeting, that means the study treatments are performing similarly and that no survival benefit will be observed when the data committee meets again at 100% or so of events. They will announce or hint to timing of next meeting based upon past precedent.

3) The longer it takes for the study to readout, the higher the probability at this stage that there is simply no difference in survival, however due to the safety profile for the ARGS product AGS-003, the study will continue because it simply poses no risk, even though it offers no significant benefit.

After the Feb 2017 meeting, investors should be warned that no readout and no stoppage means the following will occur:

ARGS = DNDN(2) = Failure in 2017 = Penny Stock in 2017 when DMC returns nothing but a trial should continue verdict.

welcome to 2017 and your new reality SH. Time to look for a new job.
 












Once again Silent Hunter (aka Head of Commercial, ARGS) is up late watching Star Trek and making stupid Spock references.

Pivotal studies with registration intent proceed to 100% of events prior to data unblinding in situations where there is no harm. Vaccine studies in oncology are classic examples of studies that run the full course (eg., do not read out until 100% of events) because they routinely involve adding an investigational agent (eg. vaccine or vaccine like immune therapy) to standard treatment. Since most vaccines, including AGS-003, do not cause significant side effects (eg., they are designed to stimulate an immune response that should be "natural" but doesn't occur when cancer has grown and spread), the studies and the Independent Data Committees charged with reviewing the data periodically (while maintaining the blind so as not to bias the treating investigators, consented subjects or company officials) allow the studies to proceed through full data readout prior to unblinding and statistical analysis. This maintains study power and allows for a clean, unbiased look at the results.

SH is so dead wrong and quite honestly simply needs to take his piehole and spew it on another message board out here in cyberland. SH is the Head of Commercial for ARGS and shouldn't be listened to by any rationale person (investor, investigator, layperson, etc).

The ARGS phase 3 study MUST read out in Feb 2017 or it will be a total FAILURE by the time they accrue 100% of events later this year or well into 2018. The company indicated they expect the upcoming review to occur at about 75% of events. With the duration of participation by 2/3 of patients (enrolled prior to end of 2014), now between 24-48 months and the final 1/3 of patients between 18-24 months of participation and/or follow up, now is the time for the study to conclude if it's going to be positive.

After the Data Committee indicates trial continues and we'll meet again in late 2017 or early 2018, that will be everyone's signal that there is simply NO separation in the survival between the arms (at least nothing significant) and there will never be a 6 month or greater separation. The trial will conclude when there is 100% of events and the study will have FAILED to produce any meaningful survival improvement.

However, as Smarty Pants Hunter has pointed out in the past, AGS-003 is non-toxic and very safe. That means the Data Committee is charged with allowing the study to proceed to 100% of events, because AGS-003 may not produce a survival benefit for more than a small % of subjects on study, but because it's not harming patients ... the DC will not stop the study early or unblind to avoid bias and to protect study power.

SH = Insider = Head of Commercial = Trekky

ARGS = DNDN(2) = FAILURE after no news next month from DC

If ARGS is to succeed, it's simply now or never. SH will succeed when he finds another job after the ARGS ship sinks completely later this year and into 2018. Don't feel bad for him.
 






No worries. In phase 2, 11 out of 21 of patients experienced long-term survival > 30 months.

In phase 3, the deck was stacked with the most favorable type of patients for the drug ( i.e. the 11).

You don't get 11 patients living that long against cancer with a sugar cube.

All they have to see if that what happened in phase 2 is more or less being replicated in phase 3, and in an age where the FDA is more lenient, they'll approve it.

Counselors will be standing by to assist as you watch the stock price run up.
 






Don't need counselors - you do SH (aka Mr ARGS Commercial). Still shocked the company hasn't recommended you stay off the social networks and message boards. You know that's a big time no-no and could perhaps represent and SEC violation. Oh well, if you end up wearing stripes in the near term along with ARGS mgmt for the amazingly stretched truth (eg., lies about when data would readout - supposed to be this year per last year's big raise), at least you will have 2-3 meals per day guaranteed and a bed to sleep in and pot to piss.

Once the ARGS ship sinks and trust me it will, you'll be unemployed. Stripes and cold cement with the comforts of home (eg., prison) sounds better than your current gig and where you'll be when the proverbial hits the fan.

Investors are confused, it's close to JPM and I'm sure there are tons of "projections" being made by your core management team about what to expect in Feb.

For everyone who is sensible and not an insider, beware of ARGS. This little run won't take them too far when it's evident in 1 month or so that the data is not ready for prime time. Again, Quirky Spocky Hunter (aka SH) is going to try to undermine reality and the truth, but longer follow up is a DEATH SENTENCE for ARGS. It simply means the phase 3 trial will readout as a WASH on the survival front with no added toxicity from AGS-003. The 6 month survival impact should be "visible" and "evident" now, not in 2018.

Hold onto to the rollercoaster ride that will be ARGS in the coming weeks and months. Go short term and have fun with the upswing and pay the extra % to get out quickly, but if there is no readout in 1 month, stay the hell away from this company. It's simply a slowly sinking ship led by Spocky Hunter.
 






It's almost like I don't work there.

Friend, learn this: the stock market is always right. If you buy today for $5 and sell next month for $10 (even if the tax rate is higher), you can laugh all the way to the bank. I would take that trade any day of the week.
 


















Thanks to SH (eg., Head of Commercial for Argos) for the enlightening, 2AM post once again. At least he doesn't post when he's on site at 4233 Technology Drive. I guess this provides him with some degree of anonymity. He's still a BL and fraud.

In any event, funny the posts are now referring to former COO ... He was canned and despite his cash out, not so sure he's off on some remote island soaking up the rays and enjoying tropical drinks.

The reality is nobody will ever make much on this dog. Once the DMC concludes "nothing" in the next 4-6 weeks and the press release indicates "DMC indicates trial to continue", this will be everyone's signal that we once again have a VACCINE trial that is going to go to 100% of events because it's safe yet not highly effective. The survival difference should have been met by this stage and because it hasn't been ... with 75% of events or so per company statements at present, this study will NEVER be positive.

Don't be fooled by the Spockmeister / SH / Insider / BL / Employee. He's simply posting to cloud the reality that ARGS will face in the coming months / years ... Closure of its doors and firesale of its "assets" due to failure of its phase 3 study in kidney cancer.

Too bad for cancer patients this company never had it's shit together and never will. That's what happens when you get rookies and ego-centric scientists to guide things ... including SH.
 






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