Argos Therapeutics

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Vanilla baby vanilla - brief summary of the 3Q update call this morning. SH continues to lie about his affiliation with ARGS. The BS about early readout at the Kidney Cancer meeting earlier this month was another attempt to thwart accurate predictions around actual study readout.

Quite funny how the company looks forward to a February 2017 data committee review (scheduled - not unexpected, meaning there will be no results to share other than potential green light to continue due to lack of inferiority) and then expects topline results 1st half of 2017. Based upon how they've operated for the past few years, this means that by summer or fall of 2017, there might be a topline readout. Thank goodness they have enough cash to get to 4Q17, otherwise they'd be pumping the uninformed public investors for another financing.

And for all of my fellow investors out there, simply remember one thing and one thing only about ARGS:

This is a one shot on goal company. If their phase 3 study fails, they will be a penny stock in a matter of minutes and trading will be halted. Don't buy the hype. If you got in between $2-4 per share hold ... if you got in for more ... take your losses before they get even worse!

Lol at this clown SH and his attempt as an insider to skew this message board. Good riddance SH.
 






What was actually said on today's conference call is this:

1) Argos anticipates that in Feb 2017 we'll be at 75 percent of events.

2) In the immediate future, Argos will spend some 5 to 10 million on manufacturing.

3) Earnings per share was a loss of 32 cents per share for the last quarter. (Analysts
will like this.)

4) More details to come about manufacturing and other concerns at the December 7
investor's meeting at NASDAQ MarketSite in New York City.

Speaking as a ham and egg investor, I admit some impatience that the events aren't further along, but take consolation that Argos will be addressing manufacturing in the very near future. You don't spend money on this if you know you're not going to have a product.

Vanilla is actually not a bad description of the call.
 






Wow - did have the opportunity to replay and listen again, I totally missed the uptick in MFG spend. So their 60-70MM in cash really does only get them to mid-2017. That's an issue when you think about timing to 100% data readout.

Highly concerning they will spend 10s of millions on an unproven MFG process prior to readout of the phase 3 trial. If they are at 75% of events in 1Q 2017, that suggests their final readout and topline data will not be available until late 2017 or perhaps even early 2018.

I'd rather see them invest in more shots on goal than manufacturing at this stage. They're continuing to place their bets on the wrong side of the equation.
 






Coupled with the uptick in MFG spend and no true experience or leadership on the inside of this company I'm really concerned about this company's limited chance of success on any front (see link to news article below regarding the very strange circumstances under which this company got rid of their COO - the only high level executive with true cell therapy experience in this entire company - seems fishy or perhaps seems like this guy was the fall guy for their continued missteps over the course of 15-20 years).

https://management-change.com/argos...signs-at-short-notice-unsung-departure-2/3942

So they kicked a Harvard trained PhD with 2 decades of cell therapy expertise to the side and made room for whom ... yes, nobody else has come on board other than a CFO. Perhaps they needed to make room for the money man's salary.

Only problem is this company will keep spending and then will tank without a positive phase 3 study readout and success internally with an unproven, non-validated cell manufacturing process run by rookies.

YIKES!
 






They were definitely subdued on this conference call. I would characterize the tone of the previous conference call, some months ago as "It's a horse race and we're in the lead." The trick is in how you interpret this. There is a style of management that says: "Under promise and over deliver." It could be that's how the new guy wants to handle things.

Stated another way, is the glass half full or is it half empty. I definitely see the risk. There's also a risk/reward ratio.
 






If management is accurately predicting the data review meeting in February 2017 will occur at about 75% of required deaths / events on their kidney cancer study, this suggests that getting to 100% of events will take at least another 9-12 months.

With the increased spend on manufacturing, commercial readiness, etc .. this company will be out of cash before they have a readout from their single phase 3 study.

YIKES!!!
 






Well I suppose you could argue that if they were at 50 percent in June and 75 percent in February, it will take until October 2017 to get to 100 percent.

However, I'm thinking about a question somebody coyly asked a couple of conference calls ago. He asked if there would be a noticeable difference between the control arms at the 75 percent threshold. The answer was, yes there would. That small detail just might mean everything. You couldn't approve this at the 50 percent threshold like everyone was hoping (since there was no difference), but now there would be a noticeable difference.
 






This just in .... Santa Claus is real and SH is smoking crack again.

Santa Claus has indicated that Argos will not have data or any readout at 75% of events. Further, events should be slowing down as the trial matures, meaning patients who are better risk survive for longer on both arms.

Santa Claus also indicated that 100% of events for the study will happen late 2017 or 1st half 2018 after Argos has spent their money on SH and the insiders new manufacturing facility run by rookies.

Santa Claus indicated the joke is on SH and anyone else invested in ARGS. Good luck and Happy Holidays! Lots of turkeys going to get fried soon.
 






Anyone else see that provocative preclinical data presented during the recent SITC meeting? If not, check it out. It's critical to understanding the games this company is playing with the investment and clinical community.

Why? Well, the lead author and spokesperson happens to be the single largest shareholder of Argos. Yes, read between the lines investors. Cellthera is a subsidiary of Pharmstandard (eg., Russian company that is currently the single largest shareholder of ARGS - closing in on 50% ownership soon). Dr. Alexander Shuster in essence runs Argos. He and his colleagues at Pharmstandard need to make some money on their > $100MM investment to date in Argos.

By the way, "AGS-003 like" ... what the hell does that mean? Someone ought to ask during their upcoming Investor Day, in addition to asking why the company continues to refrain from allowing renowned, independent immunologists to directly validate their science.

Joke. Well, perhaps joke is on all of us who invested between 2014 and present.
 






I'd ask Santa why they are even having a highly publicized investor's meeting on Dec. 7. If you're going to just stand up there and give a powerpoint presentation, you're going to get laughed out of there.

Maybe they have something to say that's worth hearing.
 






Santa says they are holding an investor day because they have to continue to make "something" out of "nothing".

Argos will have no results to share from their phase 3 trial by Feb 2017 (if they do it will be negative) and thus need to keep stringing along the investment community. They are really good at prolonging things and with their new CFO, have raised more money from an unsuspecting / under-informed public.

When you have one shot on goal and you have no idea when you're going to get that breakaway, you simply string investors along.

Nothing pertinent to be shared in December ... nothing at all in February (unless it's trial failure). Strap on your seat belts ... at best their one phase 3 study will readout late 2017 or early 2018.

Here they go asking for money again (projecting what happens 1st half 2017).
 












We would all have recommended Amgen back in the day, particularly those of us fortunate enough to learn about the amazing, near immediate impact of such a "simple" biologic. Of course, there was no voodoo nor mystery around how G-CSF worked. Patients simply left transplant units weeks to months ahead of schedule and recovered faster than ever, following barbaric chemotherapy.

ARGS is all about smoke and mirrors, which is in fact why SH continues to post here. He's an insider trying to address damage control because the company has nothing to report and no data to rely upon for any future, except the results of the phase 3 kidney cancer study. The only issue with their one shot on goal is that if they are off-target, the company sinks ... immediately. And, due to the long, slow death of Dendreon and its flagship product Provenge, nobody, well except for the Russians (eg., Pharmstandard) would every consider spending a dollar on ARGS to revive it. It will be buried and forgotten if their phase 3 study fails. The likelihood of that, well do the math over the years with companies in phase 3 with a market cap of less than $300MM ... none has ever succeeded. Thus, all you to need to know is the following:

Three (3) truths about ARGS that every investor should know:

1) The phase 3 kidney cancer study will not readout in February 2017

2) Nobody knows how this product (AGS-003) works and nobody external to a few internally motivated and biased scientists has ever validated their scientific premise (eg., expansion of memory T cells yields prolonged survival)

3) Pharmstandard will own ARGS within the next 12-24 months after the phase 3 study fails. Every public investor in ARGS will own ... well nothing. It's similar to what happens when you ask Siri what Zero divided by Zero is (eg., Cookie Monster has no cookies and you have no friends) ... meaning every public investor will have nothing other than massive losses to record.

Remember that SH is an insider or paid by ARGS for damage control. God bless his sorry soul.
 






Actually, a company co-founder was Ralph Steinman, and he received a minor award called the Nobel Prize. Those scientists did a wee bit of validation of the treatment Argos is using. When he got pancreatic cancer, he injected himself with this drug. Instead of dying within 1 year like he was supposed to, he lived for 4 years. That's why it came as no surprise to the company that results were so promising in Phase 2. The stage 3 trial will be at the 75 percent point in February, exactly as the company has been saying for many months. Go back and watch that video I pointed you to over the summer. Things are proceeding exactly as Jeff Abbey said they would. It's nice that you repeat something over and over again that has already been out in the public domain for months, though.

I was reading over form 10 K filed with the SEC, for Dec. 2015, and among other things it says that PharmStandard only gets 33 percent of the vote regardless of how many shares they own - it's part of their stock purchase agreement. If they're buying more, it's for the simple reason they they expect to make a profit on the excess shares. Other insiders have also reached into their wallets to buy shares.

As we approach the critical IDMC review in February, guess how many shares insiders have sold since the company's IPO?

The correct answer is: 0.

I'm not an insider. You seem to want to convince folks out there not to buy the stock. That's fine. If you can find fact based reasons not to, not just idle speculation, then by all means present them.

As Bill Parcells says, the truth is whatever it is, and with every month that goes by without this trial not being cancelled, the odds continue to increase for FDA approval.
 






Folks, simply stated, Argos is on the same collision course with reality as the original drummer for the Who, Keith Moon.

Known for his erratic, eccentric and self-destructive behavior, Keith Moon represents much of what Argos is going to deliver in the coming months and years -- simply nothing, beyond disappointment in failure to thrive.

Keith Moon failed to curb his lifestyle and paid the ultimate price. ARGS will do the same after never validating their science with any "outsiders". They have simply stayed the course and committed to one shot on goal. ARGS is primed for failure similar to every vaccine company and every < 300MM market cap biotech company in phase 3 development that has preceded them. Despite the early "success" the most similar biotech company to ARGS truly does foreshadow the final conclusion to the ARGS story. That company would be Dendreon and their failed product would be Provenge. Once in a blue moon, even the FDA is puzzled and approves ineffective products.

Again, SH is an insider and continues to demonstrate with his posts. He should really stick to determining how to help ARGS salvage something from their one shot on goal pipeline.
 












By the the way, this is where being a cold-hearted outside investor is an advantage. You say that Dendreon was a failure? Before the FDA approval process, it was trading at 4 bucks a share. Then it went to $54 a share. Know what this cold-hearted investor does then? He sells his stock and says: "Thank you, may I have another?"
 






Lmao - SH is not a cold hearted investor and simply an insider.

Regardless - DNDN represents deceit at its finest in our business. Any other country or market - the true cold hearted bastard Mitch Gold would have been locked up and the key would've been thrown out. Criminal indeed ...

Again, ARGS will have nothing to share this week other than repeating the same ol propaganda.

The only key difference this week at Investor Day is they will begin to back away from their BS promise of an early trial readout in Feb 2017. They will claim patients are living longer and this they will lead folks to believe the trial will be positive.

The longer he study goes from early 2017 to actual study readout and unblinding... The higher he likelihood there will be limited difference in survival between the arms.

PD-1 will rescue the non AGS patients as wil other effective treatments ...

Good luck SH. This stock isn't running up to $54 but might peak at $5.40 per share before it plunged into oblivion.

Lmao at SH and the foolishness ...
 






SH - how was your Investor Day today? You've been silent for a few days, so appears you were probably finalizing your slides to present during the meeting and assisting others in their remarks.

We've narrowed down your identity, so it's probably best you continue posting elsewhere.

ARGS = DNDN repeat = FAILURE

Good luck to all the sorry investors who buy into the propaganda. Again, when there is no news in early 2017 and the company is running out of money due to the required $100MM investment in a manufacturing facility that may never amount to anything other than an Amazon.com distribution center, the Company will be asking for more public dollars by mid-2017.

One shot on goal is still the key challenge and biggest risk. But, no worries, if they don't report a successful trial outcome in early 2018 or so, but there's a glimmer of hope, the big buzzards (eg., biotech, pharma) will be swooping and scooping up the penny stock company for virtually nothing and will try to salvage this immunotherapy approach (simply will take another 5 years to see any fruit .. meaning 2022-2023).

SH - time for your comments / rebutttal once you're done with the Investor Lunch and festivities.
 






SH - perhaps the Investor Day festivities are just concluding? On your way back to NC? Well, we know you'll be back to it once you're settled back in NC.

In any event, thanks for sharing the really, really BIG news yesterday!!! ARGS will not be spending up to $100MM in the near term on the new facility, but will instead lease space at NC State to prepare for potential commercial launch of AGS-003. That's good news for cash flow, as ARGS will not necessarily have to come back to the public for the 25th round of fund raising (eg., give or take a few rounds over the past 18-19 years since inception). They might now be able to extend the cash flow runway through any potential BLA filing in 2018 and approval in 2019 based upon this news.

This news clearly suggests ARGS is finally admitting they do not anticipate having final data in early 2017. They need the cash to last a whole lot longer. Not a huge surprise for anyone other than SH. It's a signal that the data will be in by early 2018 in all likelihood. Hopefully the public investors will all know potential timing after the February 2017 data committee review meeting.

If the data are mature by early 2018, the company will require time to finalize the BLA, which will also include this "new" facility at NC State ... hopefully that will not throw a wrench into things since that site wasn't involved in their pivotal phase 3 study from a production / processing perspective.

The BAD news my fellow investors? Well, simply stated, their commercial production capacity will be limited to a few thousand patients annually for the first 3-5 years post launch. When it comes to complex manufacturing processes, and this would be one of the most complex (eg., even Dendreon's process was less complex, albeit still 100% manual which is what ARGS announced they will pursue to support their BLA). The ARGS manual process will be resource intensive, and they may need some sort of lottery system in place because the advanced RCC population is much larger than 1800 - 2400 patients. In any event, even if the other larger facility is readied and approved by the FDA 3 years or so post launch, this company will not be moving into positive direction from a cash flow or EPS perspective for a long time after launch. This will certainly impact valuation and their stock price even with a positive study readout.

So, lots of risk still in play and now a longer timeline to break even / profitability? Looking like $5.40 per share might be a good number to shoot for in the next 2 years.

SH - we all look forward to your summary of the Investor Day events. Since you attended and participated, perhaps you can provide us with some more clarity on the MFG site announcements. Thank you sir!
 






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