Vertex stock

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Anonymous said:
Pharmasset ain't gonna have to pay super-premium to hire mercenary sales force...you see that data that was just presented? That product gonna have looooong legs.

Agree that Vertex will be fertile recruiting ground - but better make hay whilst the sun shines. Pharmasset ain't gonna throw their EBIT out of whack with labor costs way over industry average like we got here..but I'll take it while I can!

Let's just hope that all those providers who bragged about their laundry-lists of patients continue to treat for the next couple of years, and that some of these other products have a couple of bumps along the way.
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Remember, pharmasset data is on Genotype 2 and 3 easy to treat patients. Lets see some phase 3 on Genotype 1, before we got all excited!
 






Anonymous said:
No bumps. These drugs look VERY clean.

People think they will jump ship but look at what Vertex did - they only chose a few from each company. The great majority of current Vertex reps will be left out in the cold as only the best of the best will be asked to interview. It is delusional to assume most or even half of the Vertex sales force will jump ship. Ain't going to happen.
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Genentech reps are the cream of the crop, the are far more experienced, and very successful. Vertex reps are babies in the field! Also, the head of pharmaseet sales used to work at Roche for HCV. The pecking order will be Roche, Merck, then Vertex (the babies).
 






Anonymous said:
Genentech reps are the cream of the crop, the are far more experienced, and very successful. Vertex reps are babies in the field! Also, the head of pharmaseet sales used to work at Roche for HCV. The pecking order will be Roche, Merck, then Vertex (the babies).
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Sorry guys, as more DRESS and SJS come out, the lack of ethics that the company has will be a stain on the Vertex sales force. Also, the Vertex reps already have a reputation as being overly aggressive and pissing off the customers - even ones they had great relationships with.

The next ones with drugs are BI, Janssen (aka Tibotec), Novartis, BMS and Abbott.

Abbott and Janssen have virology sales force - they will roll over their HIV teams to HCV and not need to hire much outsiders, probably need to add about 40 or so. BMS has HBV team of course.

BI's drug is such a dog that only a fool would go there. Also have some HIV reps that will move to HCV but will be hiring more - 60 or so. Novartis' drug will only be a minor player.

Pharmasset and Inhibitex are take over targets, most likely Inhibitex because Pharmasset is overpriced right now.

If you're at Vertex right now, my suggestion would be to make as much bank as you can in '12 and '13 because the party ends in 2014. After that try primary care. Your reputation will be stained like the company - will be surprised if the drug doesn't get pulled but should make it through '12 and most of 2013.
 


















Anonymous said:
Sorry guys, as more DRESS and SJS come out, the lack of ethics that the company has will be a stain on the Vertex sales force. Also, the Vertex reps already have a reputation as being overly aggressive and pissing off the customers - even ones they had great relationships with.

The next ones with drugs are BI, Janssen (aka Tibotec), Novartis, BMS and Abbott.

Abbott and Janssen have virology sales force - they will roll over their HIV teams to HCV and not need to hire much outsiders, probably need to add about 40 or so. BMS has HBV team of course.

BI's drug is such a dog that only a fool would go there. Also have some HIV reps that will move to HCV but will be hiring more - 60 or so. Novartis' drug will only be a minor player.

Pharmasset and Inhibitex are take over targets, most likely Inhibitex because Pharmasset is overpriced right now.

If you're at Vertex right now, my suggestion would be to make as much bank as you can in '12 and '13 because the party ends in 2014. After that try primary care. Your reputation will be stained like the company - will be surprised if the drug doesn't get pulled but should make it through '12 and most of 2013.
Click to expand...

I do not work for vertex or merck, but it is amazing how you speak with such conviction, yet you have no idea of what you are talking about. HIV is not the same as HCV, yet you state that these reps will simply rollover to HCV drugs. What relationships do they have in HCV, what knowledge or credibility do they have in HCV? It is logical to believe that HIV reps will continue to call on "HIV" doctors! There is very little crossover between HCV and HIV. If you want a precedent, just look at Roche, they had an HIV sales force, but also had a seperate HCV sales force. The fact of the matter is that Reps with HCV relationships and experience will be sought after, and that includes Vertex.

In addition, do you assume that Vertex will not conduct studies with some of these other oral agents, perhaps to also be part of an all oral regimen; of course they will. The treatments paradigmns in HCV will evolve, and will include a mix of cocktails, etc just like HIV. Vertex will not disappear just because of new competitors in the market. Just look at antibioticsm,, etc where there are/were many, many branded competitiors. Finally, there has not been a single "all oral' regimen that has yet proven to be as efficacious as the current standard of care (plus vertex or merck drug), in genotype one patients, not ONE!, including Pharmasset.

Vertex reps, dont panic, yes obviously as there are new competitors, new options things will become more complicated, and your job will actually become a little more interesting. However, that does not mean that your drug will not continue to be a viable treatment option. Just ignore the chicken littles of the world, that predict that the sky is falling.
 






Anonymous said:
Going to $25 real soon.
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So lets get this straight, you are on the job for a year, and you are worried about the paper value of your options? Dont you know that these are long term instruments, and that stock values rise and fall in the short term, but over time almost always RISE long term. You shouldnt even be looking at stock price now. If you cant excersize your options for several years, why do you care about the value today? Well this is what happens when you hire people with no business education?
 












Anonymous said:
Remember, pharmasset data is on Genotype 2 and 3 easy to treat patients. Lets see some phase 3 on Genotype 1, before we got all excited!
Click to expand...

Yeah, Phase 3 data will be crucial...but 12 weeks, no interferon, QD, better adverse event profile - seems to fit the engineering mantra of "faster, better, cheaper". I am less concerned about the actual product itself, since still ~3 years away, and more concerned about HCP diminished enthusiasm for treating. To think these product took so long to come to market, so many patients waiting in the wings!

Q3 was a home-run; Q4 gonna be a stretch - hope Q1 goals do not reflect the same growth %.
 






Anonymous said:
Yeah, Phase 3 data will be crucial...but 12 weeks, no interferon, QD, better adverse event profile - seems to fit the engineering mantra of "faster, better, cheaper". I am less concerned about the actual product itself, since still ~3 years away, and more concerned about HCP diminished enthusiasm for treating. To think these product took so long to come to market, so many patients waiting in the wings!

Q3 was a home-run; Q4 gonna be a stretch - hope Q1 goals do not reflect the same growth %.
Click to expand...

It's actually less than 2 years away - that's why their stock jumped in early Oct.
 






Anonymous said:
I do not work for vertex or merck, but it is amazing how you speak with such conviction, yet you have no idea of what you are talking about. HIV is not the same as HCV, yet you state that these reps will simply rollover to HCV drugs. What relationships do they have in HCV, what knowledge or credibility do they have in HCV? It is logical to believe that HIV reps will continue to call on "HIV" doctors! There is very little crossover between HCV and HIV. If you want a precedent, just look at Roche, they had an HIV sales force, but also had a seperate HCV sales force. The fact of the matter is that Reps with HCV relationships and experience will be sought after, and that includes Vertex.

In addition, do you assume that Vertex will not conduct studies with some of these other oral agents, perhaps to also be part of an all oral regimen; of course they will. The treatments paradigmns in HCV will evolve, and will include a mix of cocktails, etc just like HIV. Vertex will not disappear just because of new competitors in the market. Just look at antibioticsm,, etc where there are/were many, many branded competitiors. Finally, there has not been a single "all oral' regimen that has yet proven to be as efficacious as the current standard of care (plus vertex or merck drug), in genotype one patients, not ONE!, including Pharmasset.

Vertex reps, dont panic, yes obviously as there are new competitors, new options things will become more complicated, and your job will actually become a little more interesting. However, that does not mean that your drug will not continue to be a viable treatment option. Just ignore the chicken littles of the world, that predict that the sky is falling.
Click to expand...

You are kidding yourself (or bought some bad weed) if you think that a Vertex product will combine with these products in an all oral regimen. I know VRTX would LOVE to have this happen but there are WAAAAAY too many pipeline drugs out there that show greater potency and a better side effect profile - sure, there will be a good handful that fail but there will be many cocktails that will phase vertex out.

Another poster mentioned a half dozen other companies with good pipelines but there are still a few that were left off that list - some large, some small - that will be players in this as well. Congrats to Vertex for building what they have built but this is just a 2-3 year run for Vertex in Hep C based on current drugs and current pipeline.
 












Anonymous said:
I do not work for vertex or merck, but it is amazing how you speak with such conviction, yet you have no idea of what you are talking about. HIV is not the same as HCV, yet you state that these reps will simply rollover to HCV drugs. What relationships do they have in HCV, what knowledge or credibility do they have in HCV? It is logical to believe that HIV reps will continue to call on "HIV" doctors! There is very little crossover between HCV and HIV. If you want a precedent, just look at Roche, they had an HIV sales force, but also had a seperate HCV sales force. The fact of the matter is that Reps with HCV relationships and experience will be sought after, and that includes Vertex.

In addition, do you assume that Vertex will not conduct studies with some of these other oral agents, perhaps to also be part of an all oral regimen; of course they will. The treatments paradigmns in HCV will evolve, and will include a mix of cocktails, etc just like HIV. Vertex will not disappear just because of new competitors in the market. Just look at antibioticsm,, etc where there are/were many, many branded competitiors. Finally, there has not been a single "all oral' regimen that has yet proven to be as efficacious as the current standard of care (plus vertex or merck drug), in genotype one patients, not ONE!, including Pharmasset.

Vertex reps, dont panic, yes obviously as there are new competitors, new options things will become more complicated, and your job will actually become a little more interesting. However, that does not mean that your drug will not continue to be a viable treatment option. Just ignore the chicken littles of the world, that predict that the sky is falling.
Click to expand...

What the hell is "antibioticsm"?? Your knowledge is outstanding!

With new protease inhibitors coming there is no need for a drug that is laden with side effects (anemia, rash, itchy ass) and is dosed three times a day (and no, you cannot do BID - look at the pk levels-not sustained, and the higher exposure leads to more side effects, and yes I know there is a small study showing efficacy but it was an easy population to treat, even milk thistle would have showed efficacy).

Taking reps with a strong background in infectious disease will be the way companies build their HCV teams now and in the future - just because someone has sold an interferon product means nothing in the area of antivirals - who cares if you know the local gastro?

Sorry to tell you but Vertex is in HCV for the short-term...your PI will be obsolete by the time the new PI's come out from Janssen and BI (or before if the reports of DRESS keep coming in as fast as they have been). Your non-nuc is in a class that is the dogs of the direct acting antivirals - poor efficacy and lot of resistance. Bye bye!!

Oh, I do agree with you that the Vertex reps jobs will be more interesting as new competitors come out...if you mean being unemployed is more interesting!
 






Here comes 25. Nice hyper inflated stock due to goodwill accounting procedures. I am sure the higher ups sold at 60 and all of us will never be above water. See you next year at 20.
 












Anonymous said:
You are kidding yourself (or bought some bad weed) if you think that a Vertex product will combine with these products in an all oral regimen. I know VRTX would LOVE to have this happen but there are WAAAAAY too many pipeline drugs out there that show greater potency and a better side effect profile - sure, there will be a good handful that fail but there will be many cocktails that will phase vertex out.

Another poster mentioned a half dozen other companies with good pipelines but there are still a few that were left off that list - some large, some small - that will be players in this as well. Congrats to Vertex for building what they have built but this is just a 2-3 year run for Vertex in Hep C based on current drugs and current pipeline.
Click to expand...

BAM! Tough day at the Vertex office today...
 






Workin' like a dog for the boss man
Workin' for the company
I'm bettin' on the dice I'm tossin'
I'm gonna have a fantasy
But where am I gonna look?
They tell me that love is blind
I really need a girl like an open book
to read between the lines

Love in an elevator
Livin' it up when I'm goin' down
Love in an elevator
Lovin' it up 'til I hit the ground
 
























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