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ValGan Not Happening ... Here's Why

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Anonymous

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Debt Servicing

Allergan has 2 billion debt

Valeant has 17 billion debt

To buy Allergan at existing price Valeant will have to take on additional 15 billion debt

Combined entity ValGan will be carrying 32 billion debt

ValGan will have no R & D pipeline which means the combined entity will have to depend on existing products for servicing 32 billion debt.

If anybody thinks that Pearson will do more acquisitions after taking on 32 billion debt then that's not happening. Lenders will not lend more or lend at exorbitant rates.

In either case, his debt servicing alone will kill proposed combined entity.

Unattractive Valeant Offer

Valeant is basically offering 48 cash and rest in Valeant stock totaling to 152 in ValGan. AGN shareholders know that Allergan can easily reach 152 by mid-2015 with just dual Darphin. We are not even considering the multiple indications for Botox that are in various advanced stages.

Also, why would AGN stock holders who have invested in debt free company want stock in debt ridden combined entity with no R & D pipeline?

Valeant cannot increase the cash as it is already maxed out so 152 or maybe couple of dollars more is what they can offer.

Regulatory Pressure

By the time this deal reaches negotiation stage between Allergan & Valeant we will be well near election season. 6k high paying R & D based jobs that contribute a great deal to state and national taxes disappearing in thin air will not be acceptable to any party. There will be
enough furor in media for regulators to step in.
 




Allergan opened it up to other companies which means the board is considering the offer. Either way Allergan will be sold to J&J Sanofi or Valeant. They are hoping to get a higher bid and accept the better offer. Allergan will be independant no more. it was a good run.

Senior Leadership will go first I guess Todd Wood will learn about Karma.
 
















Pay a dividend. Split the thing...Pyott's returned 2000% growth. We really that desperate to accelerate the share price by 18 months just to get Valeant's mortgaged stock??
 




Anonymous said:
Debt Servicing

Allergan has 2 billion debt

Valeant has 17 billion debt

To buy Allergan at existing price Valeant will have to take on additional 15 billion debt

Combined entity ValGan will be carrying 32 billion debt

ValGan will have no R & D pipeline which means the combined entity will have to depend on existing products for servicing 32 billion debt.

If anybody thinks that Pearson will do more acquisitions after taking on 32 billion debt then that's not happening. Lenders will not lend more or lend at exorbitant rates.

In either case, his debt servicing alone will kill proposed combined entity.

Unattractive Valeant Offer

Valeant is basically offering 48 cash and rest in Valeant stock totaling to 152 in ValGan. AGN shareholders know that Allergan can easily reach 152 by mid-2015 with just dual Darphin. We are not even considering the multiple indications for Botox that are in various advanced stages.

Also, why would AGN stock holders who have invested in debt free company want stock in debt ridden combined entity with no R & D pipeline?

Valeant cannot increase the cash as it is already maxed out so 152 or maybe couple of dollars more is what they can offer.

Regulatory Pressure

By the time this deal reaches negotiation stage between Allergan & Valeant we will be well near election season. 6k high paying R & D based jobs that contribute a great deal to state and national taxes disappearing in thin air will not be acceptable to any party. There will be
enough furor in media for regulators to step in.
Click to expand...


Allergan has NO debt. Cash on hand!
 




Valeant's days in the limelight are looking less and less likely as this thing unfolds. It's clear NO ONE, not even the shareholders, want to be bought out by Valeant. So Valeant will have to move on to something else...and soon.
 












No way that Novartis could afford Allergan. Over the past 3 years they have payed off 3/4 of the sales force. They went from 6,000 reps to 600. What a aste of a company with nothing in their pipe line. Novartis is not a contender to purchase Allergan. Chill out my fellow teammates.
 








Anonymous said:
I would love to see AGN stock go back down so Ackman loses money. He bought at around 126 and how sweet would it be to see this greedy bastard lose his ass!
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All stock is at 166.00 if Shareholders defy Ackman and push back on the VRX merger he will sell the stock, make millions and force AGN stock well below 100 bills, you really don't get what's going on here, sad that transparency is so sh!tty! Buckle up and smarten up for Christs sake!
 




Anonymous said:
All stock is at 166.00 if Shareholders defy Ackman and push back on the VRX merger he will sell the stock, make millions and force AGN stock well below 100 bills, you really don't get what's going on here, sad that transparency is so sh!tty! Buckle up and smarten up for Christs sake!
Click to expand...

Finally, someone with some sense!!
 








Oh come on - there are clearly levers to pull and a position to take to drive up share prices. No one wants a cash advance from Valeant's visa. And we could make it much less attractive for debtors to want to back their play.

Ackman is out of the box but he's also not been flawless. Furthermore he's used to dealin with idiots and being a bully, errr activist. Good luck with that against the best in the business ... Especially with Pearson stumbling about where cuts will come from and bumbling bout golf courses by his side
 




Anonymous said:
All stock is at 166.00 if Shareholders defy Ackman and push back on the VRX merger he will sell the stock, make millions and force AGN stock well below 100 bills, you really don't get what's going on here, sad that transparency is so sh!tty! Buckle up and smarten up for Christs sake!
Click to expand...



At least someone has a brain! We should demand answers!
 




Anonymous said:
All stock is at 166.00 if Shareholders defy Ackman and push back on the VRX merger he will sell the stock, make millions and force AGN stock well below 100 bills, you really don't get what's going on here, sad that transparency is so sh!tty! Buckle up and smarten up for Christs sake!
Click to expand...

Before Ackman started buying AGN the value was 110. By the time Ackman stopped the value was around 142. Once Pershing made the stake public, AGN jumped to 172 and now is at 166. Ackman's average price was 126. If ValGan does not go through and Ackman started selling AGN, it will be very difficult for him to sell at an average price above 126. Hence Ackman is looking at loss if he does a fire sell.
 




Anonymous said:
Before Ackman started buying AGN the value was 110. By the time Ackman stopped the value was around 142. Once Pershing made the stake public, AGN jumped to 172 and now is at 166. Ackman's average price was 126. If ValGan does not go through and Ackman started selling AGN, it will be very difficult for him to sell at an average price above 126. Hence Ackman is looking at loss if he does a fire sell.
Click to expand...

Good point. What I do not understand is why Allergan management is not rejecting the Valeant offer?
 




Anonymous said:
Good point. What I do not understand is why Allergan management is not rejecting the Valeant offer?
Click to expand...

They rejected Valeant's offer, which is why they are doing a hostile takeover right now. In a hostile takeover, the original offer can be rejected, but the offer is now going over management's head to the shareholders who now make the decision.
 




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