Historically this is how it rolls out in order of priority.
1. Last years rating
2. location to new territory
3. tenure
Example:
Anyone with a 1 is gone, sorry but thats what happens. If both have a 2/2, then its a matter of who lives close to the most targets in the new territory. If both live equally close to the majority of targets in the new territory, then the last thing considered is tenure and the individual that has been around longer stays. Just remember ratings are the most important and anyone with a 3 will stay unless the other has a 3 then the before mentioned scenario will play out.
What sucks is if you have been a top performer for years but as you know top performer goals increase, and then you have a bad year along with bad timing of a layoff, well you know the rest of the story.
Just continue to work hard, be a professional, and be as much of a value to Novartis as possible in meeting or exceeding expectations per your roles and responsibilities. Then also prioritize time when you are away from work to get your resume in order and line up interviews in preparation for potential layoff.
God Bless, and Best Wishes.