October 30th Conf Call

Quote




Anonymous said:
You are a moron-of course we will have layoffs-did you read the top 10 questions from John's call. Many of us will still have jobs -just depends where you live/access and FDE's. You believe your manager and director???
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The point is that we won't have nearly as many layoffs as people think. Its not all doom and gloom. We are actually in a much better position then most of pharma.
 








Anonymous said:
You must be young and new. Probably never gone through one of these, "re-organizations/re-allocations"
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No kidding. Our company has continuous mass layoffs of thousands over a few years, and then promises new employees lifelong opportunities.

They will know what you mean when they see their friends disappear, then get shown the door themselves. It's a lot like what happened in Stalinist Russian purges: See ya in Siberia, dude.
 




Anonymous said:
You must be young and new. Probably never gone through one of these, "re-organizations/re-allocations"
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During my 30 year career in Lilly sales, I went through several "re-organizations" and
"re-allocations". One time they called it a "re-optimization".

Finally, after 30 years, I was "re-tired" with full benefits. That was the best one.
 




Anonymous said:
The point is that we won't have nearly as many layoffs as people think. Its not all doom and gloom. We are actually in a much better position then most of pharma.
Click to expand...

I work for another pharma company and I had to laugh when I read this as my company has had the same patent issues for a number of years and we have re-organized, optimized, made investments in strategic platforms and all the other corporate speak that these guys use. But the one thing that they keep telling us is that we are in a much better position than other pharma companies because of our forward thinking management. They all must sit around and think this stuff up or they all use the same PR firm.
 




Anonymous said:
I work for another pharma company and I had to laugh when I read this as my company has had the same patent issues for a number of years and we have re-organized, optimized, made investments in strategic platforms and all the other corporate speak that these guys use. But the one thing that they keep telling us is that we are in a much better position than other pharma companies because of our forward thinking management. They all must sit around and think this stuff up or they all use the same PR firm.
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I'm sorry but we really are better off. We have a diabetes blockbuster drug that just had positive results. We have the best testosterone product in a market that is expanding at an incredible rate. Cialis continues to grow with the addition of the BPH indication and shows no signs of stopping. We have a me-to statin that is gaining market share because of a focused marketing team and a sales force that is best in the industry. That same cardio sales force also had Effient which is also growing at a good pace- in a highly competitive market that has been governed by price. We are helping patients get better outcomes with evidence based medicine- Effient is by far the best product in that class.

We have an Alzheimer drug that is about 3-4 years away that will be THE STANDARD of care in patients with mild to moderate symptoms- that drug alone with be a 5 billion dollar drug or more!

Try to name even one large pharmaceutical company that has what Lilly has? You can't because they don't have anything. That is why Lilly continues to invest in its PEOPLE instead of laying people off and having to rehire once the Alzheimers drug is approved. If you don't see it or refuse to believe it that is fine- but there isn't going to be an announcement of any layoffs- especially since in about a year or so we will need to be HIRING! I heard we are also looking at some companies to purchase- Baxter and Forest are continually mentioned so who knows what more the next 3-5 years will bring us. One thing for sure is those that PERFORM and stay around will have plenty of opportunities to choose from!

I don't agree with everything in regards to how we do things or the fake success stories that are consistently forwarded around. But one thing for sure is this- we are the best managed and best run pharmaceutical company in the industry. The lack of layoffs during these tough years is a sign of that!!
 




This is the MOST TRANSPARENT and FALSE CORPORATE SPIN, ever....

You are outdoing yourself.

Diabetes? How did you screw up Amylin.

Alzheimers? The whole Imclone deal?

TENS OF BILLIONS WASTED. Corporate dementia, that is what I call it. You are all so full of your PM system and Feedback systems, you continue to miss the ball, but say you are scoring home runs almost daily.

Do something useful. Isn't there a fast food restaurant that needs some PR? Tell the customers it's health food, maybe?

Anonymous said:
I'm sorry but we really are better off. We have a diabetes blockbuster drug that just had positive results. We have the best testosterone product in a market that is expanding at an incredible rate. Cialis continues to grow with the addition of the BPH indication and shows no signs of stopping. We have a me-to statin that is gaining market share because of a focused marketing team and a sales force that is best in the industry. That same cardio sales force also had Effient which is also growing at a good pace- in a highly competitive market that has been governed by price. We are helping patients get better outcomes with evidence based medicine- Effient is by far the best product in that class.

We have an Alzheimer drug that is about 3-4 years away that will be THE STANDARD of care in patients with mild to moderate symptoms- that drug alone with be a 5 billion dollar drug or more!

Try to name even one large pharmaceutical company that has what Lilly has? You can't because they don't have anything. That is why Lilly continues to invest in its PEOPLE instead of laying people off and having to rehire once the Alzheimers drug is approved. If you don't see it or refuse to believe it that is fine- but there isn't going to be an announcement of any layoffs- especially since in about a year or so we will need to be HIRING! I heard we are also looking at some companies to purchase- Baxter and Forest are continually mentioned so who knows what more the next 3-5 years will bring us. One thing for sure is those that PERFORM and stay around will have plenty of opportunities to choose from!

I don't agree with everything in regards to how we do things or the fake success stories that are consistently forwarded around. But one thing for sure is this- we are the best managed and best run pharmaceutical company in the industry. The lack of layoffs during these tough years is a sign of that!!
Click to expand...
 




Anonymous said:
We have the best testosterone product in a market that is expanding at an incredible rate. Cialis continues to grow with the addition of the BPH indication and shows no signs of stopping. We have a me-to statin that is gaining market share because of a focused marketing team and a sales force that is best in the industry. That same cardio sales force also had Effient which is also growing at a good pace- in a highly competitive market that has been governed by price.

We have an Alzheimer drug that is about 3-4 years away that will be THE STANDARD of care in patients with mild to moderate symptoms- that drug alone with be a 5 billion dollar drug or more!

That is why Lilly continues to invest in its PEOPLE instead of laying people off and having to rehire once the Alzheimers drug is approved. If you don't see it or refuse to believe it that is fine- but there isn't going to be an announcement of any layoffs- especially since in about a year or so we will need to be HIRING! I heard we are also looking at some companies to purchase- Baxter and Forest are continually mentioned so who knows what more the next 3-5 years will bring us. One thing for sure is those that PERFORM and stay around will have plenty of opportunities to choose from!

The lack of layoffs during these tough years is a sign of that!!
Click to expand...

Wow, have you drowned in that Kool Aid vat yet? I hear a gurgle. I'd love to believe even a tid bit of this. A few incredibly obvious notes to be made from your post. First of all, we haven't even gotten to the tough times yet, so you certainly can't claim there have been a lack of layoffs. We're not even there yet, dude.

You're making big claims about the Alzheimer's drug 3-4 years away being the standard of care. We're so far away from it being both proven and approved by the FDA, you can't count it yet. It's still a pie in the sky. Haven't you learned that phase II and even III tests bring big surprises, often not as great as everyone expects them to be? The drop out rate is phenomenal.

How can you really publicly say Lilly is investing in people instead of laying off? Everyone is worried about being without a job. Okay, so there will be jobs SOMEWHERE due to FDEs being let go and natural attrition. How many people can legitimately just lock the doors on their house and move to heaven knows where to take an open position? Just singles or maybe young married if the spouse isn't employed or has crap for a job. Again, the company hasn't even announced a plan yet, which AT BEST, MIGHT end up with minimum layoffs. Where does "investing in people" fit in that scenario?
 




Anonymous said:
I work for another pharma company and I had to laugh when I read this as my company has had the same patent issues for a number of years and we have re-organized, optimized, made investments in strategic platforms and all the other corporate speak that these guys use. But the one thing that they keep telling us is that we are in a much better position than other pharma companies because of our forward thinking management. They all must sit around and think this stuff up or they all use the same PR firm.
Click to expand...

It is the circle-jerk of sick sigma
 




Anonymous said:
I'm sorry but we really are better off. We have a diabetes blockbuster drug that just had positive results. We have the best testosterone product in a market that is expanding at an incredible rate. Cialis continues to grow with the addition of the BPH indication and shows no signs of stopping. We have a me-to statin that is gaining market share because of a focused marketing team and a sales force that is best in the industry. That same cardio sales force also had Effient which is also growing at a good pace- in a highly competitive market that has been governed by price. We are helping patients get better outcomes with evidence based medicine- Effient is by far the best product in that class.

We have an Alzheimer drug that is about 3-4 years away that will be THE STANDARD of care in patients with mild to moderate symptoms- that drug alone with be a 5 billion dollar drug or more!

Try to name even one large pharmaceutical company that has what Lilly has? You can't because they don't have anything. That is why Lilly continues to invest in its PEOPLE instead of laying people off and having to rehire once the Alzheimers drug is approved. If you don't see it or refuse to believe it that is fine- but there isn't going to be an announcement of any layoffs- especially since in about a year or so we will need to be HIRING! I heard we are also looking at some companies to purchase- Baxter and Forest are continually mentioned so who knows what more the next 3-5 years will bring us. One thing for sure is those that PERFORM and stay around will have plenty of opportunities to choose from!

I don't agree with everything in regards to how we do things or the fake success stories that are consistently forwarded around. But one thing for sure is this- we are the best managed and best run pharmaceutical company in the industry. The lack of layoffs during these tough years is a sign of that!!
Click to expand...

File this under ‘you could see it coming.’ It is no secret on Wall Street that Eli Lilly has its problems. But in case you had tried to overlook the issue, Fitch Rating this morning revised its outlook for the drugmaker to negative from stable. Why? Lilly has the steepest patent cliff in the industry, pressured margins and $4.9 billion in debt.
Under the circumstances, one might wonder what took the Fitch analysts so long. In any event, the ratings services offers a few rationales for its move, including patent expirations on products that represent approximately 35 percent of sales for the latest 12-months ending this past June 30. The Zyprexa antipsychotic lost patent protection in 2011.
Fitch also anticipates the loss of market protection for the Cymbalta antidepressant and the Humalog insulin will result in sales that will decline at a compound rate of nearly 8 percent between 2012 and 2014, even when including potential commercialization of the growing late-stage R&D pipeline.
And the margin pressure from those two losses could jeopardize its ‘A’ Issuer Default Rating which, of course, would hurt its credit rating. Making matters worse, Lilly (LLY) also faces yet another period of key patent expirations in 2017, involving the Alimta cancer treatment, the Strattera ADHD pill and the Cialis sexual dysfunction drug.
As you may recall, Lilly has vowed to limit R&D spending to 25 percent of sales in order to maintain margins, but Fitch believes that it will be “difficult” for the drugmaker to company to reduce research costs to its target ceiling and achieve expectations in 2014, “considering the R&D program is fundamental to recovery from the patent cliff.”
However, in a recent research note, Credit Suisse analyst Catherine Arnold makes the point that Lilly execs believe they are not reliant on any specific pipeline success to deliver on operating expenses in the range of 28 percent to 30 percent for selling, general and administrative expensive, and 18 percent to 20 percent for R&D expenses.
Still, another potential cloud is a decision to resume repurchasing shares and the possibility of incremental dividend increases, which would further strain the ability to pay down debt. Fitch notes that $1.4 billion in debt matures in 2014. And free cash flow, which is operating cash flow less capital spending and dividends, fell to $3.2 billion for the 12-month period ending June 30 from a peak of $4.4 billion for the same period in 2011.
Lilly hopes, in part, to dig its way out of this hole by relying on its pipeline, which included 12 project in Phase III or registered with regulators at the end of the second quarter of 2012. But a “broadened late-stage portfolio, even if commercialized, will not meaningfully benefit the company until the current patent expiry wave eases in 2015″ (here is the Fitch statement).
The report is rather sobering in light of the optimism Lilly exudes about its Alzheimer’s compound, which recently yielded a 34 percent reduction in cognitive decline in patients with mild Alzheimer’s, which was statistically significant. But that result was achieved only after a pre-specified secondary analysis of pooled data.
Lilly is betting on its Alzheimer’s compound to eventually restore its fortunes, but the results suggest – at least to most Wall Street analysts – that still more clinical trial work is needed, and this will not happen soon enough to warrant a sufficiently changed outlook in the near term.
 




... And free cash flow, which is operating cash flow less capital spending and dividends, fell to $3.2 billion for the 12-month period ending June 30 from a peak of $4.4 billion for the same period in 201 .
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Which means lly valuation should be no more than ~$15 billiion. Look for the stock value to plunge.
 




Anonymous said:
Wow, have you drowned in that Kool Aid vat yet? I hear a gurgle. I'd love to believe even a tid bit of this. A few incredibly obvious notes to be made from your post. First of all, we haven't even gotten to the tough times yet, so you certainly can't claim there have been a lack of layoffs. We're not even there yet, dude.

You're making big claims about the Alzheimer's drug 3-4 years away being the standard of care. We're so far away from it being both proven and approved by the FDA, you can't count it yet. It's still a pie in the sky. Haven't you learned that phase II and even III tests bring big surprises, often not as great as everyone expects them to be? The drop out rate is phenomenal.

How can you really publicly say Lilly is investing in people instead of laying off? Everyone is worried about being without a job. Okay, so there will be jobs SOMEWHERE due to FDEs being let go and natural attrition. How many people can legitimately just lock the doors on their house and move to heaven knows where to take an open position? Just singles or maybe young married if the spouse isn't employed or has crap for a job. Again, the company hasn't even announced a plan yet, which AT BEST, MIGHT end up with minimum layoffs. Where does "investing in people" fit in that scenario?
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There is a very good anti-AD drug or two already on the market.

But, there is no patent protection.

You are advertising for scientists to develop something similar with patent protection, but the fact is, you don't need stinking Imclone-like compounds. Surprise surprise. You could have asked one of your bench chemists... too late now.
 
















But seriously, what is Azar going to go over on this call? Should I be nervous? Will this be a fluff "state of bio-medicines" call or something I actuallly should call in to?
 








Anonymous said:
I heard we are also looking at some companies to purchase- Baxter and Forest are continually mentioned so who knows what more the next 3-5 years will bring us.
Click to expand...

I simply cannot even think they'd even ponder Forest due to the management nightmare that would lead to. Forest doesn't function in any similarities to Lilly and its employees are taught to make sales happen no matter what---buy the business, fake it, manipulate it, lie, cheat, whatever it takes and to whomever's sales are at the top, you're good for the day until they expect that much more tomorrow. A Forest and Lilly merger or buyout is beyond imagination for disaster. I'd think Forest would be far too arrogant for it to happen as well.
 




Anonymous said:
I simply cannot even think they'd even ponder Forest due to the management nightmare that would lead to. Forest doesn't function in any similarities to Lilly and its employees are taught to make sales happen no matter what---buy the business, fake it, manipulate it, lie, cheat, whatever it takes and to whomever's sales are at the top, you're good for the day until they expect that much more tomorrow. A Forest and Lilly merger or buyout is beyond imagination for disaster. I'd think Forest would be far too arrogant for it to happen as well.
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Forest would have no choice- we could swallow them easily with an offer they couldn't refuse. As for the employees of Forest- every one knows that they are entry level people- its a swell ship for the skipper but a hell ship for the people that are bought out..
 




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