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Novartis Insider - Final Thoughts

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From an income statement perspective, 'a paycheck just ain't what it used to be' with food and energy prices rising and payroll growth (typically a good proxy for income growth) is disappointingly timid leaving real disposable income diverging weakly from a supposed job recovery. The balance sheet perspective has been helped by the rise of the equity market but the recovery in net worth in the last three years has barely outstripped income growth, leaving the ratio deeply depressed. The upshot is that the recent pick-up in consumption is not being fueled by income or wealth gains, but mainly by drawing down savings. Many households remain deeply distressed and react to higher costs of living by drawing down savings further. In sum, a true virtuous cycle still seems a long way off. As weather effects fade and gas pain builds the data should soften.
 








Anonymous said:
This will be my final post. I apologize for ruffling a few feathers last week with the Dumb and Dumber video clip. I also apologize for calling some reps “catering trolls”....what I meant to call you were “muppets”. Just kidding...have a sense of humor!

Wanted to leave everyone with some constructive final thoughts and a road map as we go into the summer and fall....its rapid fire, so here we go:

1. Now is NOT the time to take a few months off and reflect about career changes or take downtime. Now is the time to get aggressive about generating income - in whatever form possible. This is survival of the fittest time....get out there and get a job landed ASAP - and most importantly keep the cash flow coming in.

2. Get your mind and body right. Lose weight - get healthy. Begin eating right. Mentally, get out of the spiral of negativity - as it is a self fulfilling negative feedback loop. Read, meditate, whatever it takes to get on the right path. Break your current habits and surround yourself with positive people. If their negative - their out.

3. Get out of NVS General Medicines. If you get the severance - be thankful. If you are kept - get out ASAP. This division is toast - most likely by early 2013. It will bounce back IF the pipeline bounces back - but that won’t happen until 2015-2016 at the earliest. Basel won’t keep this baby running until then. It will bring it back at that time if necessary. Wyss is being too optimistic (remember my term “optimistic self deception biases??)....The plan to keep this zombie division on life support will backfire - mark my words.

4. Onc/Hem - you guys need to get out of la-la land. Zometa is gone. Gleevec is gone. Tasigna is a POS drug masking as the next Gleevec. Like Cardiologists with Tek-Diovan bridge, Oncologists know better and won’t switch in droves. There are too many reps with not enough to do. Come mid 2013 - this sales force will be combined and be portfolio reps. 1/2 of you will be gone.

5.In general, all pharma sales (regardless of division) has 3 years left. Healthcare expenditures are unsustainable in its current form, and world governments and commercial payors will mandate generics. For branded medications, price haircuts will be imposed which will shrink profitability and this will further consolidate this industry....if you stay, continue to make other plans as a backup. See link: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/02/GS health 5.jpg

5a. In regard to #3 and #4 above, the problem is this: Leadership continues to operate like its 1980-2007 - which is the only time period they know. That game is up....we are in a different time - if you continue to operate that way - you will fail. This is also true for everyone individually as well.


6. Crude oil is consolidating and gearing up for another leg up. It will hit $125-$140/barrel in time for the July 4th Summer Driving Season (that’s a short 90 days away). This will equate to a $4.50 pump price in most areas - over a $5 handle in CA and NY. This will crimp the economy, GDP and corporate earnings....this will serve as a HUGE tax on everyone. Been out to eat lately? Notice how input costs are rising? A basic burrito at Chipotle will run you $8+ with tax.

6a. The $8 cost of a burrito is especially interesting when you think that 1/2 of all Americans are on some type of government assistance and 46 million are on Foodstamps - how can they afford these basic costs? Oh ya - we pay for them, that’s how.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...government-as-record-number-get-benefits.html

http://twitpic.com/8qr0lo



7. US Debt Ceiling breach. The US Debt Ceiling will be breached in September. It was supposed to last through January 2013, until the election is over. But, we continue to spend like crazy, and at the current burn rate - we will run out of money in mid-September. Of course, it will be raised, but the United States will then be downgraded from AA to A credit rating. Last time this happened in August 2011, the stock market fell 2,500 points in 9 days. http://www.usdebtclock.org/

8. Spain all the time. Think Europe is fixed? Think again. You will be hearing about Spain all the time from hear on out. The ECB threw $1 Trillion at the problem allowing banks to buy their own debt with 30-1 leverage. You would think that all would put this problem to bed right? Wrong. Spanish bond yields are rising...oops. Portugal yields are getting jiggy as well. Keep an eye on that. There are no more backstops.

9. Iran-Israel is going down come late summer. US Warships are already getting into position all around the region. Obama wants to delay until after the election because if the Straits of Hormuz gets shut down - oil and gas prices spike - and the US economy will tank, and voters will blame him. The fiery people in the middle east will not wait that long.

10. The longer oil prices and inflation rise, the less of a chance that the Fed prints more - as that is the cause. Without printing money - the economy collapses, with money printing - oil and commodity costs rise. We are in trouble either way. See 3:50 mark of this clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40hNSJEKUgo&feature=player_embedded

11. More debt has been created in the past forty years than will ever realistically be paid back...* which leads us to the existential financial problem of our time: The modern, debt-based economy requires constant economic expansion if only to service all that debt. So what happens when the modern economy goes ex-growth and stops expanding? Iceland already found out. Greece is in the process of discovering. But we will all get a chance to participate in this lesson.

Bottom line is this: The next 3-4 years will be “challenging.” There are no magic bullets. Everyone will have to step up and take the medicine. The things mentioned above are going to happen. Question is: How will you react to it? Will you get depressed and blame society, Obama, Novartis, your spouse, etc? Or will you understand that these forces are in play, you will play great financial defense and get your house in order and be relatively unscathed? The choice is yours...

Most in society are akin to the frog that is put in warm water and the heat is SLOWLY turned up until the water boils. Many don’t recognize the water is about to boil soon.

However, if you are one of the few who plans ahead, continues to somehow put money away, you will get once in a generation opportunities to buy farmland, commercial real estate, stock and other hard assets that will multiply 10 fold. You won’t need to be a “catering muppet” any longer. You can set yourself and future generations up - but only by making sacrifices today and stashing cash. Learn to say NO to your spoiled kids who are asking for the latest iTrinket. But you gotta get your head on straight right now.

The past is the past. You create your future by what you do in the moment on a daily basis going forward. Just as “Like attracts Like”, “Lack attracts Lack”, so get into a positive state of expecting success and you will get it.

You “see” a movie because its apart from you - you are a spectator. Learn to see your life that way and it all becomes a show.
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Nice Rant! What do these opinions of yours have to do with Novartis?
 




We expect consumer spending to underperform relative to the overall economy on a trend basis. And growth will likely be particularly weak in the second half. We expect businesses to recognize the risks of the fiscal cliff first and pull back on hiring. Then with weaker job growth and with the growing awareness of the cliff, consumers will likely start delaying some discretionary spending.
 




We think the drop in the saving rate is partly unintended and temporary. Many households remain deeply distressed and react to higher costs of living by drawing down savings further. In addition, mild winter weather may have drawn forward spending on autos and at retail establishments. As the weather effects fade, so could the consumer. The surge in gas prices will likely both constrain the rebound in the saving rate and hurt spending on other items.
 












With interest rates so low, where are we supposed to stash our discretionary cash if not in the stock market or bonds? Under a mattress? With inflation we're in a lose-lose either way.
 




Anonymous said:
With interest rates so low, where are we supposed to stash our discretionary cash if not in the stock market or bonds? Under a mattress? With inflation we're in a lose-lose either way.
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Exactly & with all the printed funny money don't be surprised if the dollar loses 50% or more within 5 years. Somewhere someone somehow has really figured out how to screw the entire global population . I'm moving to australia
 








Anonymous said:
Thank you Obama!
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Really?

How about a big thanks to George W. Bush too? Starting two wars in the Middle East, with Iraq being utterly useless. How many hundreds of billions down the drain for a country that is buddy-buddy with Iran now? How much aid did we give to Israel too?

For the total price of both Iraq and Afghanistan, we could have had 10,000 unmanned drones in the sky over there 24/7, and just bombed anything that moved. Shit, we could of even broadcast the footage of that similar to a “Hunger Games”, and sold TV advertisements to make back some money.

Of yeah, and if Romney is elected, it’s a matter of time before we invade Iran. Then we can sit back and watch 100,000 well-trained Iranian Revolutionary Guards running an Iraq-like insurgent campaign against coalition forces. Look at what Al-Sadr’s Mehedi Army did do the 4th Infantry Division in Sadr City – and they were just pissed off followers with no training.

Think about it: a full military engaging in non-uniformed combat insurgency. At least Obama recognizes this.
 








Anonymous said:
Time will tell who's right and who's wrong. But I think this guy is OP is right. Thanks for the information. I appreciate it.
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This guy is a chicken little. The world is always coming to an end. That is how talk radio and now a former Novartis tool get you gullable people hooked. Through fear. Wake up people there is a black muslim socialist in the white house and he wants to take the first four years to convince you he is safe and then the next four years implementing a master plan of ruin. Paleez. This doomsayer guy is so boring that paint watches him dry.
 




Anonymous said:
This guy is a chicken little. The world is always coming to an end. That is how talk radio and now a former Novartis tool get you gullable people hooked. Through fear. Wake up people there is a black muslim socialist in the white house and he wants to take the first four years to convince you he is safe and then the next four years implementing a master plan of ruin. Paleez. This doomsayer guy is so boring that paint watches him dry.
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I don't believe a word you said....but that last sentence made me laugh out loud. We're screwed either way....Obama or Romney.

Mark Twain quote:

"If voting really made a difference......do you think the government would let us do it?"
 




Anonymous said:
Please go check your vacuous knowledge bank in a library. Your facts are wrong. The USA was downgraded due to dick-head repubs that played "I'll be a dumbass dickhead and not vote to cover the government debts I created and had voted for over the last 25 years" attitude. The downgrade was NOT due to debt you moron, it was due to assholes playing a game because they hate the Prez.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...redit-rating/2011/08/05/gIQAqKeIxI_story.html

People just lost their jobs and you offer platitudes like, "Lose negativity". Can you leave your squishy social science gobble-dee-gook on another site and maybe show us where to go apply for unemployment instead, that would be way more positive and helpful.

If you missed #7 and it has been extensively written on, what other inaccuracies are in here as well. Peace-out, douche-bag.
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Hey, your a moron and an idiot with an IQ of 2. This guy is right and if you had half of a brain you would understand what he is trying to say. First you blame the republicans for this mess. How much of a moron are you. Our country is in debt because of government spending from both parties but the Dems were the ones that push for the entitlement programs which make up about 65% of the Federal budget. How many pookys are on welfare and have 10 kids to 10 diferent dads. Who pays for it? YOU AND ME. While pook is hangin on the street after getting out of jail he gets his welfare, section 8 housing, debit card, foodstamps and then on Friday goes to the local bar after receiving his welfare pay. Yes this goes on all the time and what happens. Well, the governement borrows money to pay for all this shit. How much does the government subsidize to the states, schools, special interests, and other state government institutions because these institutions overspend. How about the government unions like Wisconsin where govt employees have collecive bargaining. Hey they receive 5% raises, free healthcare, and pensions while cost of living goes up 2.5%. Who pays for all this shit? YOU AND ME. Ya the Feds subsidize this too.

Hey idiot what happens when the govt borrows. They create inflation. As the cost of goods and energy goes up your spending power goes down. Ya your boy the O B U M M E R has done a great job. He ceased the Keystone pipeline which would have created 20,000 jobs and reduced the price of fuel. We could be drilling for shale, gas, and oil all over our country but NOOOO. He decides to side with your left wing idiot environmentalists which give him millions for his campaign.

Remember the liberals want Keynesian economics. They want high taxes, big government, high regulations, anti-business policies and more socialism. One reason you dont have a job anymore is because the govt has stripped the Pharma market to the bare bones. Yes Pharma is to blame for much of there own demise but government is just as much to blame.

This is just the tip of the iceberg on all the things your boy and the government have fucked up on. Theres much more but I am not going to write a book. You need to go back to school and major in business, economics or get an MBA if you have the intelligence which I doubt you have. People like you are the reason this country is going to hell in hand basket. We are also in a global recession and if you look at GDP, GNP economic growth it continues to decline. Our umemployment rate is at 8.3% because 1.2 million have stopped looking for work. There are many poor souls working for temp jobs and part-time work that make a quarter of what they made before. as a result, the unemployment is much higher at about 25%.

Again, you are an example of why our society, country and opportunites have gone to hell. I hope you get educated and understand why things are the way they are. YOU SCARE ME SHITHEAD.
 




Fridays Jobs report: 120,000 new jobs vs expectations of 270,000. Slow down has begun. Stock market down big on Monday.

87 million have now stopped looking for work - which means they are now on govt payroll...LOL
 




Will Atlas Shrug?

Think about that.*

Do you think the US will always and forever be able to pay for our over-bloated military-industrial complex and our wars of choice?*

Do you think the federal housing agencies will always and forever be able to subsidize the real estate industry with money losing, non-economic mortgage loans?

Do you think the government will always and forever be able to pay on the promises they've made regarding Social Security, Medicare and Medicade?

Do you think the government will always and forever be able to extend debt-enslaving, subsidized student loans to anyone with a pulse?

Do you think the fiat ponzi central planners at the Fed will always and forever be able to manipulate the Treasury curve to whatever levels the Oracles of Delphi decide?

If you answer yes to the above, ask yourself this: how would all of these things be affected if the average interest rate paid by the US was to rise to 5%?* At today's debt level of $15.6 trillion, the interest expense would be approximately $780 billion or about 35% of total government revenues.* Welcome to the United States of Greece.* Next stop, bankruptcy.

Housing will collapse as mortgage rates approach 8%.* Every aspect of federal, state and local government spending will have to be slashed.* Police, fire, schools, medical services, mail delivery, trash delivery, road maintenance and every other kind of social service will be cut dramatically as capital is diverted to pay interest on our debt.

And these sudden rate rises can happen brutally fast in our uber-connected global ponzi.* Just ask Italy.* 4% rates and it was bunga bunga time.* Rates jump to 7% a few months later and suddenly the Vampire Squid has to send in one of their own to "save" the day.* You get the idea.

I think it's no exaggeration at all to say that keeping US rates low, ZIRP low, for the foreseeable future (ie, forever) is key to maintaining the semblance of stability in the current global fiat ponzi.* Nearly every major financial player on the planet is counting on this being an a priori piece of knowledge.

And there's your trade.* Everyone is betting on this one idea -* that the Fed will never lose control of interest rates and the US Treasury will never have a failed auction.* The same way nearly every major financial player on the planet was willing to bet that US real estate could never fall for an extended period of time.*
 




And that my friends is a wrap....lights out, and GOODNIGHT. G.R.E.A.T post....


Anonymous said:
Will Atlas Shrug?

Think about that.*

Do you think the US will always and forever be able to pay for our over-bloated military-industrial complex and our wars of choice?*

Do you think the federal housing agencies will always and forever be able to subsidize the real estate industry with money losing, non-economic mortgage loans?

Do you think the government will always and forever be able to pay on the promises they've made regarding Social Security, Medicare and Medicade?

Do you think the government will always and forever be able to extend debt-enslaving, subsidized student loans to anyone with a pulse?

Do you think the fiat ponzi central planners at the Fed will always and forever be able to manipulate the Treasury curve to whatever levels the Oracles of Delphi decide?

If you answer yes to the above, ask yourself this: how would all of these things be affected if the average interest rate paid by the US was to rise to 5%?* At today's debt level of $15.6 trillion, the interest expense would be approximately $780 billion or about 35% of total government revenues.* Welcome to the United States of Greece.* Next stop, bankruptcy.

Housing will collapse as mortgage rates approach 8%.* Every aspect of federal, state and local government spending will have to be slashed.* Police, fire, schools, medical services, mail delivery, trash delivery, road maintenance and every other kind of social service will be cut dramatically as capital is diverted to pay interest on our debt.

And these sudden rate rises can happen brutally fast in our uber-connected global ponzi.* Just ask Italy.* 4% rates and it was bunga bunga time.* Rates jump to 7% a few months later and suddenly the Vampire Squid has to send in one of their own to "save" the day.* You get the idea.

I think it's no exaggeration at all to say that keeping US rates low, ZIRP low, for the foreseeable future (ie, forever) is key to maintaining the semblance of stability in the current global fiat ponzi.* Nearly every major financial player on the planet is counting on this being an a priori piece of knowledge.

And there's your trade.* Everyone is betting on this one idea -* that the Fed will never lose control of interest rates and the US Treasury will never have a failed auction.* The same way nearly every major financial player on the planet was willing to bet that US real estate could never fall for an extended period of time.*
Click to expand...
 




Yeah...It really takes alot of talent to go on line and observe every bad thing that is happening in the world of finance, politics, and economics and come on to this site and tell everyone that each of these events will reach a final conclusion that is exponentially worse than the current situation. I bet the Vegas odds makers would have something to say about your run of predictions.

So Mr. or Ms. Insider, if you are such a marvelous prognosticator what are you doing wasting your time getting people riled up on CP? Why not use your fantastic skills to head to your local race track make some money? Or pick six numbers that will win you the Mega? Or cash on those land deals or gold stocks or oil futures that you are always touting?

The answer is you don't really have these skills, that you're a wanna-be and a loser. I have had enough of your bulls**t. I am officially banning you from Cafe Pharma. Going forward please refrain from posting on this site as I come here for entertainment and knowledge and you provide neither.
 








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