This will be my final post. I apologize for ruffling a few feathers last week with the Dumb and Dumber video clip. I also apologize for calling some reps “catering trolls”....what I meant to call you were “muppets”. Just kidding...have a sense of humor!
Wanted to leave everyone with some constructive final thoughts and a road map as we go into the summer and fall....its rapid fire, so here we go:
1. Now is NOT the time to take a few months off and reflect about career changes or take downtime. Now is the time to get aggressive about generating income - in whatever form possible. This is survival of the fittest time....get out there and get a job landed ASAP - and most importantly keep the cash flow coming in.
2. Get your mind and body right. Lose weight - get healthy. Begin eating right. Mentally, get out of the spiral of negativity - as it is a self fulfilling negative feedback loop. Read, meditate, whatever it takes to get on the right path. Break your current habits and surround yourself with positive people. If their negative - their out.
3. Get out of NVS General Medicines. If you get the severance - be thankful. If you are kept - get out ASAP. This division is toast - most likely by early 2013. It will bounce back IF the pipeline bounces back - but that won’t happen until 2015-2016 at the earliest. Basel won’t keep this baby running until then. It will bring it back at that time if necessary. Wyss is being too optimistic (remember my term “optimistic self deception biases??)....The plan to keep this zombie division on life support will backfire - mark my words.
4. Onc/Hem - you guys need to get out of la-la land. Zometa is gone. Gleevec is gone. Tasigna is a POS drug masking as the next Gleevec. Like Cardiologists with Tek-Diovan bridge, Oncologists know better and won’t switch in droves. There are too many reps with not enough to do. Come mid 2013 - this sales force will be combined and be portfolio reps. 1/2 of you will be gone.
5.In general, all pharma sales (regardless of division) has 3 years left. Healthcare expenditures are unsustainable in its current form, and world governments and commercial payors will mandate generics. For branded medications, price haircuts will be imposed which will shrink profitability and this will further consolidate this industry....if you stay, continue to make other plans as a backup. See link: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/02/GS health 5.jpg
5a. In regard to #3 and #4 above, the problem is this: Leadership continues to operate like its 1980-2007 - which is the only time period they know. That game is up....we are in a different time - if you continue to operate that way - you will fail. This is also true for everyone individually as well.
6. Crude oil is consolidating and gearing up for another leg up. It will hit $125-$140/barrel in time for the July 4th Summer Driving Season (that’s a short 90 days away). This will equate to a $4.50 pump price in most areas - over a $5 handle in CA and NY. This will crimp the economy, GDP and corporate earnings....this will serve as a HUGE tax on everyone. Been out to eat lately? Notice how input costs are rising? A basic burrito at Chipotle will run you $8+ with tax.
6a. The $8 cost of a burrito is especially interesting when you think that 1/2 of all Americans are on some type of government assistance and 46 million are on Foodstamps - how can they afford these basic costs? Oh ya - we pay for them, that’s how.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...government-as-record-number-get-benefits.html
http://twitpic.com/8qr0lo
7. US Debt Ceiling breach. The US Debt Ceiling will be breached in September. It was supposed to last through January 2013, until the election is over. But, we continue to spend like crazy, and at the current burn rate - we will run out of money in mid-September. Of course, it will be raised, but the United States will then be downgraded from AA to A credit rating. Last time this happened in August 2011, the stock market fell 2,500 points in 9 days. http://www.usdebtclock.org/
8. Spain all the time. Think Europe is fixed? Think again. You will be hearing about Spain all the time from hear on out. The ECB threw $1 Trillion at the problem allowing banks to buy their own debt with 30-1 leverage. You would think that all would put this problem to bed right? Wrong. Spanish bond yields are rising...oops. Portugal yields are getting jiggy as well. Keep an eye on that. There are no more backstops.
9. Iran-Israel is going down come late summer. US Warships are already getting into position all around the region. Obama wants to delay until after the election because if the Straits of Hormuz gets shut down - oil and gas prices spike - and the US economy will tank, and voters will blame him. The fiery people in the middle east will not wait that long.
10. The longer oil prices and inflation rise, the less of a chance that the Fed prints more - as that is the cause. Without printing money - the economy collapses, with money printing - oil and commodity costs rise. We are in trouble either way. See 3:50 mark of this clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40hNSJEKUgo&feature=player_embedded
11. More debt has been created in the past forty years than will ever realistically be paid back...* which leads us to the existential financial problem of our time: The modern, debt-based economy requires constant economic expansion if only to service all that debt. So what happens when the modern economy goes ex-growth and stops expanding? Iceland already found out. Greece is in the process of discovering. But we will all get a chance to participate in this lesson.
Bottom line is this: The next 3-4 years will be “challenging.” There are no magic bullets. Everyone will have to step up and take the medicine. The things mentioned above are going to happen. Question is: How will you react to it? Will you get depressed and blame society, Obama, Novartis, your spouse, etc? Or will you understand that these forces are in play, you will play great financial defense and get your house in order and be relatively unscathed? The choice is yours...
Most in society are akin to the frog that is put in warm water and the heat is SLOWLY turned up until the water boils. Many don’t recognize the water is about to boil soon.
However, if you are one of the few who plans ahead, continues to somehow put money away, you will get once in a generation opportunities to buy farmland, commercial real estate, stock and other hard assets that will multiply 10 fold. You won’t need to be a “catering muppet” any longer. You can set yourself and future generations up - but only by making sacrifices today and stashing cash. Learn to say NO to your spoiled kids who are asking for the latest iTrinket. But you gotta get your head on straight right now.
The past is the past. You create your future by what you do in the moment on a daily basis going forward. Just as “Like attracts Like”, “Lack attracts Lack”, so get into a positive state of expecting success and you will get it.
You “see” a movie because its apart from you - you are a spectator. Learn to see your life that way and it all becomes a show.
Wanted to leave everyone with some constructive final thoughts and a road map as we go into the summer and fall....its rapid fire, so here we go:
1. Now is NOT the time to take a few months off and reflect about career changes or take downtime. Now is the time to get aggressive about generating income - in whatever form possible. This is survival of the fittest time....get out there and get a job landed ASAP - and most importantly keep the cash flow coming in.
2. Get your mind and body right. Lose weight - get healthy. Begin eating right. Mentally, get out of the spiral of negativity - as it is a self fulfilling negative feedback loop. Read, meditate, whatever it takes to get on the right path. Break your current habits and surround yourself with positive people. If their negative - their out.
3. Get out of NVS General Medicines. If you get the severance - be thankful. If you are kept - get out ASAP. This division is toast - most likely by early 2013. It will bounce back IF the pipeline bounces back - but that won’t happen until 2015-2016 at the earliest. Basel won’t keep this baby running until then. It will bring it back at that time if necessary. Wyss is being too optimistic (remember my term “optimistic self deception biases??)....The plan to keep this zombie division on life support will backfire - mark my words.
4. Onc/Hem - you guys need to get out of la-la land. Zometa is gone. Gleevec is gone. Tasigna is a POS drug masking as the next Gleevec. Like Cardiologists with Tek-Diovan bridge, Oncologists know better and won’t switch in droves. There are too many reps with not enough to do. Come mid 2013 - this sales force will be combined and be portfolio reps. 1/2 of you will be gone.
5.In general, all pharma sales (regardless of division) has 3 years left. Healthcare expenditures are unsustainable in its current form, and world governments and commercial payors will mandate generics. For branded medications, price haircuts will be imposed which will shrink profitability and this will further consolidate this industry....if you stay, continue to make other plans as a backup. See link: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/02/GS health 5.jpg
5a. In regard to #3 and #4 above, the problem is this: Leadership continues to operate like its 1980-2007 - which is the only time period they know. That game is up....we are in a different time - if you continue to operate that way - you will fail. This is also true for everyone individually as well.
6. Crude oil is consolidating and gearing up for another leg up. It will hit $125-$140/barrel in time for the July 4th Summer Driving Season (that’s a short 90 days away). This will equate to a $4.50 pump price in most areas - over a $5 handle in CA and NY. This will crimp the economy, GDP and corporate earnings....this will serve as a HUGE tax on everyone. Been out to eat lately? Notice how input costs are rising? A basic burrito at Chipotle will run you $8+ with tax.
6a. The $8 cost of a burrito is especially interesting when you think that 1/2 of all Americans are on some type of government assistance and 46 million are on Foodstamps - how can they afford these basic costs? Oh ya - we pay for them, that’s how.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...government-as-record-number-get-benefits.html
http://twitpic.com/8qr0lo
7. US Debt Ceiling breach. The US Debt Ceiling will be breached in September. It was supposed to last through January 2013, until the election is over. But, we continue to spend like crazy, and at the current burn rate - we will run out of money in mid-September. Of course, it will be raised, but the United States will then be downgraded from AA to A credit rating. Last time this happened in August 2011, the stock market fell 2,500 points in 9 days. http://www.usdebtclock.org/
8. Spain all the time. Think Europe is fixed? Think again. You will be hearing about Spain all the time from hear on out. The ECB threw $1 Trillion at the problem allowing banks to buy their own debt with 30-1 leverage. You would think that all would put this problem to bed right? Wrong. Spanish bond yields are rising...oops. Portugal yields are getting jiggy as well. Keep an eye on that. There are no more backstops.
9. Iran-Israel is going down come late summer. US Warships are already getting into position all around the region. Obama wants to delay until after the election because if the Straits of Hormuz gets shut down - oil and gas prices spike - and the US economy will tank, and voters will blame him. The fiery people in the middle east will not wait that long.
10. The longer oil prices and inflation rise, the less of a chance that the Fed prints more - as that is the cause. Without printing money - the economy collapses, with money printing - oil and commodity costs rise. We are in trouble either way. See 3:50 mark of this clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40hNSJEKUgo&feature=player_embedded
11. More debt has been created in the past forty years than will ever realistically be paid back...* which leads us to the existential financial problem of our time: The modern, debt-based economy requires constant economic expansion if only to service all that debt. So what happens when the modern economy goes ex-growth and stops expanding? Iceland already found out. Greece is in the process of discovering. But we will all get a chance to participate in this lesson.
Bottom line is this: The next 3-4 years will be “challenging.” There are no magic bullets. Everyone will have to step up and take the medicine. The things mentioned above are going to happen. Question is: How will you react to it? Will you get depressed and blame society, Obama, Novartis, your spouse, etc? Or will you understand that these forces are in play, you will play great financial defense and get your house in order and be relatively unscathed? The choice is yours...
Most in society are akin to the frog that is put in warm water and the heat is SLOWLY turned up until the water boils. Many don’t recognize the water is about to boil soon.
However, if you are one of the few who plans ahead, continues to somehow put money away, you will get once in a generation opportunities to buy farmland, commercial real estate, stock and other hard assets that will multiply 10 fold. You won’t need to be a “catering muppet” any longer. You can set yourself and future generations up - but only by making sacrifices today and stashing cash. Learn to say NO to your spoiled kids who are asking for the latest iTrinket. But you gotta get your head on straight right now.
The past is the past. You create your future by what you do in the moment on a daily basis going forward. Just as “Like attracts Like”, “Lack attracts Lack”, so get into a positive state of expecting success and you will get it.
You “see” a movie because its apart from you - you are a spectator. Learn to see your life that way and it all becomes a show.