Based on the Genotype1 results of 100% cured, I doubt Gilead is backing out. Everyone in HCV will be screwed when this goes to market. Except for Gilead. I think $11B was cheap. They will be the 1 and only Rx.
National market share plummeting
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Based on the Genotype1 results of 100% cured, I doubt Gilead is backing out. Everyone in HCV will be screwed when this goes to market. Except for Gilead. I think $11B was cheap. They will be the 1 and only Rx.
Really? Are you really starting to panic over a PHASE II study? 35 Patients? That even if successful is at least 3 years away? Are you new to this industry? Do you know that more than 90% of drugs that reach this point never even make it to market? Give me a break please! The fact of the matter is that most "Can't miss" drugs actually "do MISS"!
Lets not start the panic, three years is an eternity! Just sell what you have in your bag. In this industry, regardless of specialty area, there is always a better mouse trap right around the corner.
Lol 3 years is an eternity. Let's see you say that in 2 years when you panic and realize your job is coming to an end. And it is. That's a fact
It is not a FACT, since the drug is only in Phase II, and 90% plus of all drugs in development fail at some point. Dont use your words so loosely! Also, the bottomline is that if you are a "SALES" rep, with only ONE product in your bag, you are always in jeopardy, that means everyone! So yes, you should always be on your toes, and realize that there is no such thing as making a career out of a single drug.
Even IF, this new drug launches, their reps will also not have lifetime security, as there will always be better, safer, cheaper, more convenient drugs coming right behing it. Remember, two years ago Vertex was the hot shot in the room, along with Merck, to some extent. So yes, three years is an eternity, in this business!
No one can be "Shocked" when they have at least three years of notice. During that three years, there will be many many launches, across many therapeutic areas, including within HepC.
Even if you think you will ultimately become unemployed, you have AT LEAST three years to save a huge part of that bloated rep salary, that bloated bonus, and the car expenses that you dont have to pay. On top of that you will get a nice severance package. So again, with 3 years MINIMUM (assuming it EVER launches, several Hepc drugs have failed recently), if you dont save at least 100k + severance, you have real issues.
Merck's market share was stated as 36% in their financial release...that of course includes the VA's. Take those out and it's a joke.
You are so freaking delusional. There's not just one drug coming. There's a handful. They are all not going to fail. Ad ya, there's a difference between working for a company with only one drug and you sell that drug vs a company like Gilead or BMS who have other drugs and a pipeline. But whatever good luck with your savings and severance. Lol
Gilead's/Pharmasset's drug has staying power...that is why Gilead was willing to pay a premium. PSI-7977 will most likely be the backbone of therapy for years, much like peg was starting ~10 years ago. While still needing to stand up in Ph III, it is more convenient, more versatile, with better AE profile...the trifecta. So, unlike Incivek, will be much harder to displace.
Can't say I was happy to see Gilead acquire it, since less likely that they will hire any of us to help sell it. Doesn't mean I won't try though!
Can't say I was happy to see Gilead acquire it, since less likely that they will hire any of us to help sell it. Doesn't mean I won't try though!
I think you are right. Too much bad blood between the guys that would hire at GILD and VRTX. It will be a grudge match and unfortunately Gilead holds the ace of spaces.
Where does that leave Genentech and Merck reps then?
Rumor is that the Merck sales director is preparing to use a secret weapon to regain the lead with outstanding trust and value
look for big changes coming from the top over the next few months. Re-org and lay offs are coming as Vertex tries to clean up their financials for acquisition. you guys have six-nine months, depending on EASL and Alios data. Max is nine is a best case scenario.
In crowd or not, you are all out!
Thats not the point; the gilead drug is first in line, and assuming they launch at all, it wont be until sometime in 2014; thats a fact! That means that you have at least 2-3 years. Now, Vertex will not drop off the map immediately, so add another year. My point is that, even if all goes great for Gilead, you have at least 3 years to prepare for a change.
To quote you "There's not just one drug coming. There's a handful". There are very few experienced HCV reps, while the market is about to explode, with new entrants. That means that HCV is one of the few areas, where reps will be highly coveted, but the talent pool is relatively small, almost non-existent. This means unfettered opportunities for YOU!
So, stop looking at the glass have empty; it is not! It is 100% full! The bottomline is that vertex dominates the market now, and when the ride is over, there will be many companies that will bid for your services.
Uhm...newsflash....
Change happened when sales flattened out dramatically and the trajectory doesn't look to change.
Change is here and she ain't perty.
Change happened when sales flattened out dramatically and the trajectory doesn't look to change.
Change is here and she ain't perty.
agree with all the above, the curve ball however is will Vertex be acquired during the next 3 years. my guess is yes, if two things happen. 1) if Gilead data at EASL looks good (which it should), what that means is stock price will be flat or even drop 2) if Incivek sales numbers are decent in Q1 and Q2, what that means is healthy revenue and low stock price.... equals acquisition green light, especially for a company that needs to fill a time gap for an already exsisting HCV pipeline (eg Merck or J&J). Read the analyst reports, this is no secret.
here's whats important for Vertex employees... what is the real executive boards strategy? getting acquired and calling it quits, or do will they truly use Incivek revenue to to drive R&D or late molecule acquisition and develop a long term viable company? This will equate to how much time will I have to get a new job if it does look like acquisition strategy. Next earning calls will reveal how much is being spent, and if it looks too lean and mean... well then you have your answer... stock is not going to move much this year unless Vertex gets acquired.
Here's the deal; if VRTX was going to be acquired, J&J would have pulled the trigger before launch when the market cap was around $1-3billion. Reality is that that didn't happen...for a reason.
History is that the (stock rose) market cap grew to over $11Billion (way overvalued) and now investors understand that this was a 2-3 year fling. Pipeline is all that can drive the stock price so it's now Pain and Cystic Fibrosis or bust. Problem is that the current (and for that fact pipeline HCV) HCV product plus the other disease state pipeline drugs don't merit the current $7Billion market cap.
I agree with you, a low stock price will help but it needs to go WAY down to entice potential suitors but again, not at or close to $7Billion for what is being offered.
Otherwise I agree with your analysis.
Had a doc go to a Merck program with Poordad... Said the Merck 2nd gen protease goes across all genotypes, once a day and no side effects. It's not mono Tx, prolly will be used with Gilead and Genentech's polymerase. No doubt about it guys... we're f**ked!!
The sales pitch sounds nice but you are assuming too much. First off, Merck's CEO said this about his pangenomic protease inhibitor at the JPMorgan Health Conference just after ACHN showed data showing their PI worked across all genotypes. A complete attempt to slight ACHN. Later that day he said he (Merck) would "do whatever it takes to remain a leader in HCV". Really? Like what? Watch VRUS and INXH get gobbled up? These WERE the best two nucs out there. You aren't "f**ked" because of a competitive PI. PI's carry too much baggage in terms of side effects and they won't be a part of an all oral compound (that excludes interferon and RBV) in spite of all the huffing and puffing that Merck and ACHN are doing. What else can they do???
ACHN could merge with IDIX but they refuse to do this (or is it the other way around
or both could try and be bought out. IDIX and it's "slow" nuc has the best chance but won't hold up toPSI-7977 or INX-189. The future doesn't include PI's - pangenomic or not - and anyone who believes otherwise is in for a rude awakening.
Best of luck.
It doesnt matter whether Vertex is acquired. unless they are acquired by Roche or Scmerck, the company that hires them will have a sales force that knows absolutely squat about HCV, and will not have an HCV sales force. So yes, home office types might have something to worry about, but the sales force of a billion$+ drug, that has 80% of the market will have no worries, until the nukes hit the market in likely 3-5 years; that is a lifetime.
Again, stop being negative; you were never going to have a long career selling just one drug; nobody/very few do. You are in a good spot!