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Karyopharm - oncology

What about Endo p53. Results are very compelling for a big patient pop in pMMR. Also,
Mf not worth anything??? Come on cutty!!!
We barely compete and create revenue in our 'flagship' indication. What makes you think we can compete in other arenas? We are not the only therapy showing compelling outcomes in p53. If any acquiring company saw value or believed the Kool Aid RP is spewing, then we would have been bought by now. Simply put there is very little value in current or future indications for Selinexor.

Bankruptcy is far more likely than a buyout...and as another poster stated...the auction will take place and our asset(s) will get scooped up for pennies on the dollar. That is why no one is taking us off the board today...they can wait us out and get us even cheaper than it looks today.

But go on, keep thinking RP and our BOD are 'outsmarting' the big investment banks and the big pharma's with their army of consultants.
 








We barely compete and create revenue in our 'flagship' indication. What makes you think we can compete in other arenas? We are not the only therapy showing compelling outcomes in p53. If any acquiring company saw value or believed the Kool Aid RP is spewing, then we would have been bought by now. Simply put there is very little value in current or future indications for Selinexor.

Bankruptcy is far more likely than a buyout...and as another poster stated...the auction will take place and our asset(s) will get scooped up for pennies on the dollar. That is why no one is taking us off the board today...they can wait us out and get us even cheaper than it looks today.

But go on, keep thinking RP and our BOD are 'outsmarting' the big investment banks and the big pharma's with their army of consultants.
RP isn’t very smart and is dishonest. That’s usually not a winning combination.
 




We barely compete and create revenue in our 'flagship' indication. What makes you think we can compete in other arenas? We are not the only therapy showing compelling outcomes in p53. If any acquiring company saw value or believed the Kool Aid RP is spewing, then we would have been bought by now. Simply put there is very little value in current or future indications for Selinexor.

Bankruptcy is far more likely than a buyout...and as another poster stated...the auction will take place and our asset(s) will get scooped up for pennies on the dollar. That is why no one is taking us off the board today...they can wait us out and get us even cheaper than it looks today.

But go on, keep thinking RP and our BOD are 'outsmarting' the big investment banks and the big pharma's with their army of consultants.
BP isn't as strong as you think in the indications that Karyopharm is developing for MF and EC. BP has spent $7B in the last few years for M&A on MF alone with only GSK finding success, but is at risk with marginal efficacy. AZN, MRK and GSK don't have strong data in pMMR for EC and AZN didn't get that designation at all. AZN needs the most followed by GSK that is up against MRK, which MRK will go generic in a handful of years forcing GSK to compete on price. The efficacy of approved treatments in MF is a very low bar with the indication currently bringing in $3B per year. Imagine how big that market could be with better efficacy. It could be a $4-5B market. Are we to believe that BP is done chasing the MF indication after blowing $7B in acquisitions? Doubtful. I wouldn't be surprised if Novartis steps in as a potential suitor as they are pissed for being duped into the Morphosys acquisition and they have had a confrontational partnership with Incyte on Rux. Any good data on Selinexor monotherapy data for MF and Incyte and GSK could be facing a drastically different outlook.

Big investment banks and big pharma have been getting outsmarted since the dawn of medicine. Have you even seen the latest failures? ABBV spent $11B for MF and schizophrenia (early/mid stage) and nothing to show for it. Let's also add on the $35B loss in market cap. How about the Morphosys acquisition by Novartis. $2.9B for a late stage asset that they had already seen the data that failed to not only hit the secondary TSS50, but also failed to hit the potential lower bar of absolute TSS50.

Regarding your comment on why hasn't there been a sale yet. It wasn't until the FDA approved three different treatment combos in Advanced/Recurrent EC late this past summer and the fate of Pelabresib was unknown until a few weeks ago. If you were a potential acquirer would you make a serious offer with the competitive landscape undefined? Karyopharm was also working with the FDA to change the secondary endpoint to absolute TSS50. If you were in RP's shoes would you entertain offers without this key element completed? Probably not to both. The reality is that they are in the lead to be the leading treatment in two indications with big unmet needs.
 




We barely compete and create revenue in our 'flagship' indication. What makes you think we can compete in other arenas? We are not the only therapy showing compelling outcomes in p53. If any acquiring company saw value or believed the Kool Aid RP is spewing, then we would have been bought by now. Simply put there is very little value in current or future indications for Selinexor.

Bankruptcy is far more likely than a buyout...and as another poster stated...the auction will take place and our asset(s) will get scooped up for pennies on the dollar. That is why no one is taking us off the board today...they can wait us out and get us even cheaper than it looks today.

But go on, keep thinking RP and our BOD are 'outsmarting' the big investment banks and the big pharma's with their army of consultants.
Any biopharma company that trades at well under a 1x revenue multiple is a dog. We can debate what breed of dog, but it’s still a dog.
 
















BP isn't as strong as you think in the indications that Karyopharm is developing for MF and EC. BP has spent $7B in the last few years for M&A on MF alone with only GSK finding success, but is at risk with marginal efficacy. AZN, MRK and GSK don't have strong data in pMMR for EC and AZN didn't get that designation at all. AZN needs the most followed by GSK that is up against MRK, which MRK will go generic in a handful of years forcing GSK to compete on price. The efficacy of approved treatments in MF is a very low bar with the indication currently bringing in $3B per year. Imagine how big that market could be with better efficacy. It could be a $4-5B market. Are we to believe that BP is done chasing the MF indication after blowing $7B in acquisitions? Doubtful. I wouldn't be surprised if Novartis steps in as a potential suitor as they are pissed for being duped into the Morphosys acquisition and they have had a confrontational partnership with Incyte on Rux. Any good data on Selinexor monotherapy data for MF and Incyte and GSK could be facing a drastically different outlook.

Big investment banks and big pharma have been getting outsmarted since the dawn of medicine. Have you even seen the latest failures? ABBV spent $11B for MF and schizophrenia (early/mid stage) and nothing to show for it. Let's also add on the $35B loss in market cap. How about the Morphosys acquisition by Novartis. $2.9B for a late stage asset that they had already seen the data that failed to not only hit the secondary TSS50, but also failed to hit the potential lower bar of absolute TSS50.

Regarding your comment on why hasn't there been a sale yet. It wasn't until the FDA approved three different treatment combos in Advanced/Recurrent EC late this past summer and the fate of Pelabresib was unknown until a few weeks ago. If you were a potential acquirer would you make a serious offer with the competitive landscape undefined? Karyopharm was also working with the FDA to change the secondary endpoint to absolute TSS50. If you were in RP's shoes would you entertain offers without this key element completed? Probably not to both. The reality is that they are in the lead to be the leading treatment in two indications with big unmet needs.
Fair points...not that I agree with most of them, at least you put some thought into them. Rare on this board...

I'll retort in reverse if you don't mind.

Yes, you would entertain any offers, regardless of the landscape not being defined. Acquiring companies will look at KPTI much like a pre-commercial enterprise. If they saw value in the molecule someone would throw an offer together to take it off the board. RP does not make that call on any level ...the BOD and the institutional investor will have more to say about that than RP. If your scenarios in your first paragraph were likely, someone would gladly through $5B at KPTI t(which they would take in a heartbeat) to get that platform and future revenue stream. Could you be right? Perhaps, however very few if any are seeing it the way you are seeing. Doesn't mean you are wrong...just saying it highly unlikely.

Disagree that the investment banks and big phama's getting outsmarted by the small fledging biotech's. They are not merely buying revenue streams like in years past. They are more interested in buying platforms and technology of which the fruits of those deals may not be seen for over a decade. To call any deal a failure in the first 5 years shows you have little experience in M&A, which is ok. My guess is you are a commercial employee and not a finance person. You know a little about a little but not a lot about this. The big investment banks don't stay in business by getting routinely outsmarted.

I disagree with your sentiment on development in competitive markets KPTI will play in and what the revenue potential for those indications. Seli is not going to be the best or theonly therapy in any of those future indications. Commercial execution at KPTI has been underwhelming. High turnover, flat revenue and stagnation in share doesn't scream commercial success for future indications.
 








Fair points...not that I agree with most of them, at least you put some thought into them. Rare on this board...

I'll retort in reverse if you don't mind.

Yes, you would entertain any offers, regardless of the landscape not being defined. Acquiring companies will look at KPTI much like a pre-commercial enterprise. If they saw value in the molecule someone would throw an offer together to take it off the board. RP does not make that call on any level ...the BOD and the institutional investor will have more to say about that than RP. If your scenarios in your first paragraph were likely, someone would gladly through $5B at KPTI t(which they would take in a heartbeat) to get that platform and future revenue stream. Could you be right? Perhaps, however very few if any are seeing it the way you are seeing. Doesn't mean you are wrong...just saying it highly unlikely.

Disagree that the investment banks and big phama's getting outsmarted by the small fledging biotech's. They are not merely buying revenue streams like in years past. They are more interested in buying platforms and technology of which the fruits of those deals may not be seen for over a decade. To call any deal a failure in the first 5 years shows you have little experience in M&A, which is ok. My guess is you are a commercial employee and not a finance person. You know a little about a little but not a lot about this. The big investment banks don't stay in business by getting routinely outsmarted.

I disagree with your sentiment on development in competitive markets KPTI will play in and what the revenue potential for those indications. Seli is not going to be the best or theonly therapy in any of those future indications. Commercial execution at KPTI has been underwhelming. High turnover, flat revenue and stagnation in share doesn't scream commercial success for future indications.
Christ, I just threw my ketchup against the wall