Take the deal

It's amazing how defensive some people get when you shatter their reality.
ok then, tell us some numbers. you say mine are wrong, let's hear yours.

the numbers I referenced are from financials B&L published when Public.

I clearly stated twice in two posts, it is impossible to value from the outside, only warburg knows the real current overall numbers.

Then I offered my view based off what we have all seen done since the last known values and trends.

I can't look at B&L and see a single positive catalyst.
Tell me one thing that would make me buy the stock in an IPO.

BY THE WAY. B&L will IPO. That's warburgs bread and butter. Now that their value got blown, they're going to get a bank to give them a lofty IPO. What just happened to facebook though is going to put banks in a tough spot to give B&L an over inflated IPO. They can't afford another black eye in a bogus IPO. This is small potatoes though in comparison so I expect an IPO that gives them a moderate over valuation probably in the 7 to 8 range. I don't think a bank will give them a 10 bil IPO. I don't know how low an IPO warburg will settle for. It will be very interesting to see.

That means do NOT think about buying this stock on the open, only if you can get IPO prices and sell on the immediate open. The stock will fall like a brick. The value of B&L stock after their first published quarter will be the real value of B&L. I bet you all now. That value is not more than 6 billion.

I'd rather buy allergan with a proven history of published numbers and growth!
not saying I like allergan products better, all the same to me. I like making money on my stock purchases and that's the only thing wall street cares about.
revenue, earnings, growth, future growth, catalysts and juicy dividends.

Funny thing about your harvard MBAs, which I've done business with. They're the same ones that lost 50% of their value on inspire overnight after a bad trial outcome and sold the stock to merck. They lost 75 million on paper overnight. Proving your Harvard MBAs don't have a crystal ball either. They put their pants on one leg at a time just like the rest of us. (disclaimer yes warburg made money on inspire overall, but they lost more in 1 day on a bad outcome than any other private equity firm I've ever heard of). Just sayin!

They do the same thing all of us do. They pick a number out of a hat based on crunching some numbers and make some hypothetical conclusions and poof a magic number. It's BS mixed with some simple math. It's not rocket science.

Understand being owned by a private equity firm is not a good thing. They care about making money by flipping deals. They have been stuck with B&L for FAR longer than they ever wanted. Right now the best thing for employees is that they can't move it. If B&L is sold or IPO, it results in layoffs. When Warburg bought B&L I left to finish my career elsewhere. I wish you all the best of luck and encourage you all to do the same.

B&L is in play, the valuation is not what warburg floated. They will now IPO quickly, no doubt. I think you will hear news very soon.
Wish you all good luck.
 






It's amazing how defensive some people get when you shatter their reality.
ok then, tell us some numbers. you say mine are wrong, let's hear yours.

the numbers I referenced are from financials B&L published when Public.

I clearly stated twice in two posts, it is impossible to value from the outside, only warburg knows the real current overall numbers.

Then I offered my view based off what we have all seen done since the last known values and trends.

I can't look at B&L and see a single positive catalyst.
Tell me one thing that would make me buy the stock in an IPO.

BY THE WAY. B&L will IPO. That's warburgs bread and butter. Now that their value got blown, they're going to get a bank to give them a lofty IPO. What just happened to facebook though is going to put banks in a tough spot to give B&L an over inflated IPO. They can't afford another black eye in a bogus IPO. This is small potatoes though in comparison so I expect an IPO that gives them a moderate over valuation probably in the 7 to 8 range. I don't think a bank will give them a 10 bil IPO. I don't know how low an IPO warburg will settle for. It will be very interesting to see.

That means do NOT think about buying this stock on the open, only if you can get IPO prices and sell on the immediate open. The stock will fall like a brick. The value of B&L stock after their first published quarter will be the real value of B&L. I bet you all now. That value is not more than 6 billion.

I'd rather buy allergan with a proven history of published numbers and growth!
not saying I like allergan products better, all the same to me. I like making money on my stock purchases and that's the only thing wall street cares about.
revenue, earnings, growth, future growth, catalysts and juicy dividends.

Funny thing about your harvard MBAs, which I've done business with. They're the same ones that lost 50% of their value on inspire overnight after a bad trial outcome and sold the stock to merck. They lost 75 million on paper overnight. Proving your Harvard MBAs don't have a crystal ball either. They put their pants on one leg at a time just like the rest of us. (disclaimer yes warburg made money on inspire overall, but they lost more in 1 day on a bad outcome than any other private equity firm I've ever heard of). Just sayin!

They do the same thing all of us do. They pick a number out of a hat based on crunching some numbers and make some hypothetical conclusions and poof a magic number. It's BS mixed with some simple math. It's not rocket science.

Understand being owned by a private equity firm is not a good thing. They care about making money by flipping deals. They have been stuck with B&L for FAR longer than they ever wanted. Right now the best thing for employees is that they can't move it. If B&L is sold or IPO, it results in layoffs. When Warburg bought B&L I left to finish my career elsewhere. I wish you all the best of luck and encourage you all to do the same.

B&L is in play, the valuation is not what warburg floated. They will now IPO quickly, no doubt. I think you will hear news very soon.
Wish you all good luck.

I don't think the Ista purchase helped either-what a waste!
 




































you're an idiot.
easy to say it's not right and offer nothing in return. I asked multiple times. you offer nothing.

The latest numbers published on bloomberg say 700 million projected EBITDA 2012 and 800 million EBITDA projected for 2013.
No proof those numbers are even real. Provided anonymously.

10 billion is 12 times that EBITDA.
Analysts say that is a high premium for B&L.

I think the "leaked" EBITDAs are lofty.
And their desired valuation is lofty.

6 months after the IPO we will see who was right.
When compared to allergan I bet allergan is blowing the doors off B&L on every metric.
2 quarters of B&L public numbers will show the reality.

Warburg made a good buy. They bought B&L for 1.7 billion and 4 bil in debt. But they only had to lay out 1.7 for a 400 million EBITDA. That's 4 times EBITDA. They financed the debt. Warburg will make a few billion on an IPO when all is said and done. That's a great return for them.

Disclaimer.
I will be shorting the stock the minute it opens if the IPO price is too high. I don't believe the projected EBITDA or the growth disclosed on bloomberg.
 






Well, there you go. You're getting closer, almost a positive tone in your message. And a little insight into what you're hoping for (and why too). Someone is a little bitter.

Good luck at Allergan, B+L just hasn't been the same since you "decided to leave". That is, except for the historic sales, growth, and earning levels.

Short away.
 


















Seems funny to me how the management at B&L defend Warburg on here. Makes me wonder if it's warburg trolls on this board? Could be. When your CEO is a hand puppet to the board of a private equity firm do you realize how far down the totem poll mid level management really is. Just seems odd. B&L employees don't work for warburg. If warburg prospers B&L people don't benefit, only a very select few. So why do the ra ra dance?

Warburg making a profit on inflating B&L numbers says nothing about B&Ls standing.
By the way, B&L has not had Historic Growth. Earnings and sales maybe but so does every company that keeps growing even by a fraction of a percent. Try to live in the real world and stop with the corporate koolaid. B&L has acquired multiple product lines and taken on a billion in new debt. You better have higher sales and earnings if you buy a billion dollars worth of extra crap to sell.

I'm also not working for allergan. I own Allergan stock because in the pharma sector it has been one of the best performing stocks for a very long time. I think I stated that clearly. It makes me wonder just how dumb this HQ person is that they can't even read and comprehend basic english. Is it me, or are other people seeing this too?

I can tell by the writing style it's a woman. Is there an HQ troll in mid level management that is impossible to talk to and all about Corporate ra ra. That's who is posting the warburg defense. What a fool.

If that's any indication at the caliber of people in management no wonder B&L has nothing going on. I remember having the same type of conversations with people there and just thinking how dumb people are. That's everywhere though. Makes me glad I retired.

If B&L IPOs with numbers based on the Bloomberg "anonymous" reports. Then the IPO will flop just like facebook. Warburg will make billions on the IPO sale. Everyone else will be left holding stock at 50% of the IPO. Bet on it. It's the way wall street has been operating for decades now. Me shorting B&L IPO has less to do with B&L and more about Banks lying to maximize IPO sales for their customers ie. warburg. But I happen to feel confident in this one that the projections are bogus, having worked in the industry for 20 years, having worked at B&L for a decade, having kept an eye on the entire sector. I know the industry and the product lines.

Is there a single positive catalyst at B&L that would make me buy an IPO.
If anyone knows of anything. A new product doctors can't wait to use? Anything?

If not. It's a flop on the open.
Are the projections real? The numbers don't feel right.
Even if they are real, warburg wants a high premium for them. That spells disaster in an IPO for everyone but them. go back and read my other posts if you don't get it.

Do what you want. Just don't believe the kool aid.
If you are given shares, sell on the open. If you have to hold them. You'll watch that value implode. Then the real fun begins when quarter after quarter B&L has to publish real numbers. Then we will all know the real story.

Best of luck. I'm done trying to educate corporate trolls.
 






It is right to ask for an IPO that gives accurate numbers on the company. Lying in business to inflate the IPO hurts the investor and ultimately the employee as the new company is forced to layoff to meet undeliverable expectations of an inflated IPO.

Bring on the IPO. Buyer beware. If you buy into this IPO you can not say that you have not been warned.
 


















Retired CFO here, calling out the corporate shill.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...r-warburg-files-ipo-for-eye-care-company.html

What did I say in previous posts? Numbers didn't sound right.

"429 million 2012 EBITDA" That would be right in line with what we all expected as realistic growth since the last reported earnings in 2007. Even a little light.

"Excluding the effects of items such as stock-based compensation, acquisition-related costs and an arbitration settlement, Ebitda was $643.1 million. "

Explains how they got to their over inflated 700 million. Total joke. It doesn't work that way. So much for anonymous financials.

They've been operating at a loss for at least two consecutive years of 129 million in 2011 and 68 million in 2012.

No wonder they never made a deal.

So where's the HQ shill now?
My numbers and speculation were spot on.
The anonymous reported numbers were a joke.
The actuals are worse than even speculated.
 






"The ADJUSTED EBITDA calculation is of interest to company owners, bankers and business buyers since ADJUSTED EBITDA is the normalized free cash flow that a company has to service any proposed debt."
 












You HQ shills are fools and refuse to accept the truth that I was right and you were wrong.

BLOOMBERG reported the EBITDA was 700 million, They did not say an "adjusted EBITDA".

EBITDA in 2012 was 429 million. not 700 million like they said it was.

The previous discussion was based off of the lies reported in bloomerg report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...burg-said-to-choose-jpmorgan-to-lead-ipo.html

The real numbers are not what the "anonymous source" said they were.

I was right. HQ shill was wrong. End of story. Busted!
 






Reading this post feels like sitting through a POA meeting. No matter what is said it's like falling on deaf ears. "We're not going to listen to anything logical that makes sense here." The corporate person googled the definition of adjusted ebitda and post it as a response. Typical corporate canned response and I bet they don't even know what normalized free cash flow means and then they respond to their own post 20 minutes later trying to give themselves credibility. It's like when a manager comes in and echos what perry or kathy said trying to give their position legs.