Take the deal

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company has been private for too long to value it from outside.
it's all a guessing game based off of acquisitions and growth but major products have been discontinued, just too tough to call.

look at financials from 2000 to 2007 when it was publicly traded.
company grossed 2 bil in 2000 and grew about 10% per year in revenue.
in 2000 it net earnings were 200 mil and net earnings fluctuated each year between 200 to 300 mil.

how much would you pay to net 300 mil per year... not 10 billion. overhead and costs here are way out of line. have been for a long time and not much has been done about that.

B&L is a beast with employee overhead. if anything it has gotten even more bloated.
any public company would have to liquidate head count.

surgical is so irrelevant it's silly. totally useless division.
vision care is the backbone both in revenue and earnings.
rx has great margins but the products are irrelevant. generics and otc are probably the best earnings. just too tough to call from outside these days. Rx has heavy margin but heavy overhead with sales dept.

I think the company is worth less than they paid for it. 5 billion. at best. they bought at the height of the market in 2007. Things have returned and then some. 5.5 billion maybe.
I wouldn't touch this place if I were an analyst with a competitor.
I would buy vision care and OTC.
 






Anonymous said:
company has been private for too long to value it from outside.
it's all a guessing game based off of acquisitions and growth but major products have been discontinued, just too tough to call.

look at financials from 2000 to 2007 when it was publicly traded.
company grossed 2 bil in 2000 and grew about 10% per year in revenue.
in 2000 it net earnings were 200 mil and net earnings fluctuated each year between 200 to 300 mil.

how much would you pay to net 300 mil per year... not 10 billion. overhead and costs here are way out of line. have been for a long time and not much has been done about that.

B&L is a beast with employee overhead. if anything it has gotten even more bloated.
any public company would have to liquidate head count.

surgical is so irrelevant it's silly. totally useless division.
vision care is the backbone both in revenue and earnings.
rx has great margins but the products are irrelevant. generics and otc are probably the best earnings. just too tough to call from outside these days. Rx has heavy margin but heavy overhead with sales dept.

I think the company is worth less than they paid for it. 5 billion. at best. they bought at the height of the market in 2007. Things have returned and then some. 5.5 billion maybe.
I wouldn't touch this place if I were an analyst with a competitor.
I would buy vision care and OTC.
Click to expand...

If B+L is only worth 5.5 billion no wonder all of the games to try to get it sold. Did not work though so I wonder what the next plan is at B+L. Cut costs? Wait three years and then try an IPO?
 



Impossible to really know the value looking in from the outside. Only Warburg knows the real numbers. For us on the outside, If you graph revenue, earnings and the PEG ratio from when the company was public going back 10 years and place the buy out value in 2007, you have a big jump in rate to 2013 and a 10 billion dollar valuation. unless warburg worked magic and B&L started dominating the industry I just can't see how they got to that number. did revenues and earnings double?

assuming consistent growth (even though some divisions have lost share) you are still no where near their number.

I just don't see it. would love to know the real numbers though.
you may hate wall street but they're great at valuing businesses like B&L. B&L was worth exactly what warburg paid for the stock after the recall and price drop. It just feels like the company has gone down hill and lost steam since then. feels like there is less value there now than there was in 2007. My last insight into B&L was a few years ago when I had some good numbers. everything was stalled then. anyone have any insight now.
 






Anonymous said:
WOW. You're all so smart and such great analysts that you're here on the CP message board pontificating.

I'm sure a big financial firm is looking to hire you soon.
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Since B+L is not a public company speculation on the possible value is the only way to estimate whether a company may come along and buy it at some future date.
 






Anonymous said:
WOW. You're all so smart and such great analysts that you're here on the CP message board pontificating.

I'm sure a big financial firm is looking to hire you soon.
Click to expand...

actually I'm retired so I'm not looking for work but I worked at a firm in M&A before my time at B&L. not everyone on cafe pharma is a drug rep. shows how limited your scope of view is, so try and smarten up. executives including ceos look at cafepharma when they are alerted at things that are posted. not just B&L, but the big companies too. They hate cafe pharma.

lawyers for companies go through the posts. insider trading, HR issues. it's a problem these companies have to face, especially the insider trading issue. and yes they also have drones inside HQ posting replies. Lawyers actually. posting anti spin and emailing cafe to have other posts removed.

But I digress. You don't need a retired CFO to tell you B&L is not worth 10 Billion. you just got that message loud and clear from the guys with with $. So try and absorb some knowledge about the place you work.

Phone Call: " Hey warburg is trying to sell B&L for 10 Billion".. "posts on cafe pharma are funny, check it out".
ME: "yeah ok I'll check it out and post something".

The revenue is decent, the overhead is bloated, the earnings are suspect, the future earnings are worrisome and that's why it's not worth 10 Billion. If it was worth 10 billion or anywhere near that number you would have been sold. The future earnings are probably still worth exactly what warburg paid for it. I know B&L has acquired a bunch of products and companies but I don't think they have added that much to the overall earnings. I could be wrong on that but I think it mostly replaced other lost earnings.

The reason you don't have a deal is because the 2 sides are too far apart. warburg wants 10. Whoever went through the deal probably didn't even come back with a close number. How do I know? Because you're still there.

Do the simple math. figure nothing changed and they still earn at least 300 mil a year like they did in 2007 on a 5 billion sale. They've had it for 5 years. earned 1.5 billion. It's not knocking it out of the park but it's a 6% annual yield.

Now figure they had some growth and better earnings and maybe it's worth 6 bil. Just not double what they paid. They're dreaming. On the low side it's worth 5 on the ultra high side let's say 7 and that's crazy. better deals to be found for sure. And that's why you don't have a deal. It's a sellers market right now. companies are dying for revenue and acquisitions, orphan drugs, 100 million dollar cancer niches they're grabbing whatever they can find. They have massive amounts of cash on hand that they've been hoarding.

B&L has a 2 to 3 billion dollar revenue stream and no body is buying it? Tells me the earnings are too light for the value warburg has placed on it.

I liked B&L for part of the time I was there. Most all those people are long gone. I probably only know a couple people left there. Just a shame to see the direction it went.
I see B&L split up in pieces in the future and that's a shame for 150 year old company.

Don't just job hop just to have a job.
Plan your career carefully. If I were working I'd be looking for a strong transition away from there.
 



Gibberish. You've taken a couple of facts and extrapolated them into a story you know very little about.

Do you honestly believe you understand the rationale better than WP? A long-standing, respected, successful private equity company. Perhaps you don't.

Maybe you should read a bit more on where big Pharma is headed and why they may not wish to invest in a company that is <50% Pharma.

Get out you B-school books and look up why a company might have greater value in the public markets than to an ill-fitting industry suitor who has to cast off large portions of the acquired to satisfy regulatory, business, or shareholder requirements.

This board is full of misinformed juveniles. If you are employees, you're not paying attention to the facts. Look at performance and fundamentals rather than shoot-from-the-hip conjecture from those who only seem to see negatives.

I do agree with one sentiment. If it's so bad, if the future is so bleak, then leave. Everyone will be better off (except your new employer).
 



Anonymous said:
Gibberish. You've taken a couple of facts and extrapolated them into a story you know very little about.

Do you honestly believe you understand the rationale better than WP? A long-standing, respected, successful private equity company. Perhaps you don't.

Maybe you should read a bit more on where big Pharma is headed and why they may not wish to invest in a company that is <50% Pharma.

Get out you B-school books and look up why a company might have greater value in the public markets than to an ill-fitting industry suitor who has to cast off large portions of the acquired to satisfy regulatory, business, or shareholder requirements.

This board is full of misinformed juveniles. If you are employees, you're not paying attention to the facts. Look at performance and fundamentals rather than shoot-from-the-hip conjecture from those who only seem to see negatives.

I do agree with one sentiment. If it's so bad, if the future is so bleak, then leave. Everyone will be better off (except your new employer).
Click to expand...

Funny post from a CEO or designate. The retired guy is right. You do not have to know all the details just look at the results. B+L tried to sell for 10 billion. There was not an offer or even a hint of an offer. That means it is worth less than 10 billion.
 






I never said $10B.

The majority of the figures he referenced are wrong. He is uninformed. Believe what you want, but you're coming to conclusions based on incorrect data.

If you're an insider with the cognitive abilities of 10 year old, you should be able to look at the real data and make your own informed conclusion. If you're not looking at the real data, then continue to live in your fantasy world. What is it your wishing for?

My money is on the Harvard MBAs at WP. What are your credentials? Uninformed, back of the napkin, hyperbole. If it's so bad, go to the competition (please).
 



The geniuses at WP stupidly bought B+L at the height of the market and have been trying to dump it a valuation that is clearly out of line with the market. Anyone inside or outside the company can see that.
 



Yes "dump". That's all I need to see to know all about you. You must be Warren Buffet.

Time will tell. But your ilk will never change. Negative. Conspiracy. You know better than the experts.

I think corporate finance may be a bit above your pay grade.
 



Anonymous said:
Yes "dump". That's all I need to see to know all about you. You must be Warren Buffet.

Time will tell. But your ilk will never change. Negative. Conspiracy. You know better than the experts.

I think corporate finance may be a bit above your pay grade.
Click to expand...

No, actually it's not. Insider here (not B&L) with direct involvement in the bidding process. Oh and you sound like an HR shill, trying to refute any posts that don't provide a dreamy scenario for the company.
 






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