Sr NVD Finance staff in meetings to plan future of NVD

[Anonymous]

Bexsero just got approved in Europe.

So what does that mean for NVD's future? Approval does not automatically mean commercial success or profitability, but it must certainly raise the stakes for a sale.

 

[Anonymous]

So what does that mean for NVD's future? Approval does not automatically mean commercial success or profitability, but it must certainly raise the stakes for a sale.

Short term - Andrin and Rino are off death watch but still on life support. Vas stays alive because Andrin is but means nothing in the long run since he was not involved in this submission. He still needs to prove that he can lead something significant through licensing. Rino's science has proven that it is at least average and maybe more due to the difficulty of producing a vaccine against this serotype. But how will Bexsero do commercially? As the announcement said, it took 20 + years and how much investment to get it to this point? It has application in Europe (where the health systems have money to buy it) but anywhere else they do not. So commercially, little or no impact.

Medium term - with little or no commercial impact but with some impact on the credibility of Research then it maybe ups the price someone would pay for the IP. Has no impact of what someone is willing to pay for the Development group as they are still to costly when compared against industry benchmarks and have no special competencies. It does not significantly impact NVD's profitability. RNA is still just as screwed as it always was. It does make Andrin and maybe Vas much more employable . . . . somewhere else.

Long term - Only a quadrivalent vaccine will ever have a significant commercial impact. The pipeline is still there. So any company with the guts (and deep pockets) that can take (or keep, in the case of Novartis) NVD and bet on the bath tub curve has the chance to make money. In order for the ROI to be positive would require all the promises to come true (including break throughs in flu due to the partnership with Venter et al) and on time. Two failures in a row and its a big loss.

Bottom line - the business plan for NVD is based on a drug development and licensing strategy that is analogous to a poker game where NVD's only winning hand is to draw an inside straight. Except that the ante between each draw is much larger due to the operational costs and losses of doing business. NVD needed Bexsero as the next card to make it's hand but it still needs all the others in the series and on time to keep this hand and stay in the game. For NVD, unlike the other big pharma's with vaccines, there is only one hand then NVD is out of the game. To push the analogy further, NVD is betting on the fact the Rino has a new card counting system, that increases the chances of drawing the next card needed for this hand. Novartis is betting all-in on Andrin, Andrin is betting all-in on Rino and Rino just brought in Bexsero. The question is, does Novartis have the testes to keep betting all-in for the rest of the pipeline and future vaccines needed to win the hand? Also, all the winnings have to be larger than the ones produced or promised so far by Menveo and Bexsero. This makes it a much tougher call for Novartis.

 

[Anonymous]

Short term - Andrin and Rino are off death watch but still on life support. Vas stays alive because Andrin is but means nothing in the long run since he was not involved in this submission. He still needs to prove that he can lead something significant through licensing. Rino's science has proven that it is at least average and maybe more due to the difficulty of producing a vaccine against this serotype. But how will Bexsero do commercially? As the announcement said, it took 20 + years and how much investment to get it to this point? It has application in Europe (where the health systems have money to buy it) but anywhere else they do not. So commercially, little or no impact.

Medium term - with little or no commercial impact but with some impact on the credibility of Research then it maybe ups the price someone would pay for the IP. Has no impact of what someone is willing to pay for the Development group as they are still to costly when compared against industry benchmarks and have no special competencies. It does not significantly impact NVD's profitability. RNA is still just as screwed as it always was. It does make Andrin and maybe Vas much more employable . . . . somewhere else.

Long term - Only a quadrivalent vaccine will ever have a significant commercial impact. The pipeline is still there. So any company with the guts (and deep pockets) that can take (or keep, in the case of Novartis) NVD and bet on the bath tub curve has the chance to make money. In order for the ROI to be positive would require all the promises to come true (including break throughs in flu due to the partnership with Venter et al) and on time. Two failures in a row and its a big loss.

Bottom line - the business plan for NVD is based on a drug development and licensing strategy that is analogous to a poker game where NVD's only winning hand is to draw an inside straight. Except that the ante between each draw is much larger due to the operational costs and losses of doing business. NVD needed Bexsero as the next card to make it's hand but it still needs all the others in the series and on time to keep this hand and stay in the game. For NVD, unlike the other big pharma's with vaccines, there is only one hand then NVD is out of the game. To push the analogy further, NVD is betting on the fact the Rino has a new card counting system, that increases the chances of drawing the next card needed for this hand. Novartis is betting all-in on Andrin, Andrin is betting all-in on Rino and Rino just brought in Bexsero. The question is, does Novartis have the testes to keep betting all-in for the rest of the pipeline and future vaccines needed to win the hand? Also, all the winnings have to be larger than the ones produced or promised so far by Menveo and Bexsero. This makes it a much tougher call for Novartis.

spot on - who ever wrote this could have saved novartis a lot if time, money and trouble by taking a few hundred thousand dollars of novartis' money a few year ago and telling them this instead of the millions of dollars they have paid for all the bs from mckinsey and the highly paid md's and phds we have on staff.

 

[Anonymous]

if you are talking about rna hq, sure, for those of us screwed enough to have to actually move first before we find another gig. as noted above, everyone is on the street hawking their cv's to anyone who will schedule an interview. like someone said in another set of comment streams, the layoff package is like the consolation prize given to those at the end of musical chairs when you don't have anyplace else to sit. don't wait for the music to stop before looking for another game to play in. for those of us who don't and have to take the money from a nvd game in nj it will be the biggest screw-job ever.

just got feedback from a recruiter and it seems that those that had the good sense and have already abandoned this turd loaded shit wagon are basically telling the companies that they landed at that the rest of us losers left behing at nvd are just that, losers. so we are radioactive to other potential employers.

 

[SWarren]

Holmberg? Is that you? Folks in Sci Affrs make me puke....especially this one. Never seen a more self loving department in my life.

 

[Anonymous]

remember this thread?