It's the other way around, Mentor is imploding. Once Sientra launches their new US-made implants shortly, it will be all over for Mentor.
It's sad actually. Jeff Nugent has made some critical errors in his acquisitions that have shortened the time to when Sientra will be out of money. His MiraDry acquisition hasn't gone well. While
added to their portfolio, it reduced their cash reserves by about 2 months in relation to operating costs. With the delays in manufacturing that two months is an Achilles heel.
Sientra was never profitable even before their fire. They are down to their last $26 million in cash which is about 2 quarters left until they won't be able to keep the lights on. Even when they are able to sell their US made implants, they have a problem. The surgeons who aren't using them
1. have had 2 years building experience, relationships and (most importantly) shelf stock of Mentor or Allergan.
2. Have lost confidence in Sientras longevity. In other words, will their guarantees like their C3 program still be around if they go under? Why switch and lose a relationship and price with their current vendor if Sientra goes under in a few quarters?
It's going to be almost impossible for Sientra to stay open. Nugent is talking about getting an extra "10 million in funding" due to manufacturing milestones they have hit. That will last them less than one quarter.
The last round of funding they received was when they had solid growth and were new to the space with their 5th generation gel. The two other companies have since launched their 5th gen gel implants. Since their last round of funding, ASPs are lower so margins will be greatly affected and lender confidence will be down.
Say Nugent gets funding that's 50% of their last capital raise. So it's $30M. This literally keeps their lights on for 3 more quarters in addition to the 2 quarters of cash they have on hands.
That's 5 quarters until Jeff Nugent has officially run the ship into the bottom of the ocean and the movie credits roll.
Had he not made those two acquisitions, it would have given Sientra an additional two quarters to pull up out of the free fall. Unfortunately he continued to spend cash reserves like a sailor at port and made two critical errors.
its unfortunate because the Sientra implant is probably the best implant on the market when considering data and aesthetics. But the perfect storm of the FDA inquiry, fire and Nugents mismanagement will most likely be the end of what could have been one of the most powerful companies in the space.