Obesity Division - changes and more changes

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anonymous said:
about a dozen people called the 2008 market crash. everybody else lost tons of money. analysts can make major catastrophic mistakes.

think for yourself
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what’s the market at today, again? You only lost money if you cashed out.

Of course I think for myself, but if you think a patient population of 200m is not a growth opportunity, you are delusional.
 








anonymous said:
That 50 B estimate was being kicked around for what Mounjaro will make. saw that multiple times.
quote your source link if it’s for wegovy.
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Mounjaro estimate actually $25bn. I’m referring to the total market estimate, not just Wegovy. There will be other products both from our company and others in the next 10 years. Point is, the market right now is maybe $1bn-$2bn. That’s a lot of growth.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma...-market-could-be-worth-50b-plus-2030-analysts
 




anonymous said:
Novo is poorly run. No argument there. I’m comparing divisions within novo. Diabetes has around 2000 reps in a highly competitive market. We have 250, soon to be 325ish in a market where we’ve basically been the only company for 8 years. Wegovy costs 50% more than Ozempic and the obesity market is 5x larger. The second we get Medicare and Medicaid, the market is projected to balloon to 50 billion. In short, obesity is the future of this company, period.

And we launched 2 products in obesity and Lilly has zero, so not sure what you mean about novo always being second. Sure, this company completely fucked up Wegovy launch and Lilly will do a much better job, but I don’t see any layoffs in our future, whereas I see a significant shrinking of footprint in diabetes.

No argument that Lilly is the superior run company though.
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So I misspoke when I said novo was always second to Lilly…they are always second to the rest of the industry. They are the worlds largest diabetes company yet victoza followed byetta. Levemir followed lantus. Tresiba followed toujeo. Xultophy followed soliqua. Ozempic followed trulicity. Wegovy will follow mounjaro (maybe). This company should be blowing it out decade after decade yet they continue to trip over their own feet because they continue to hire dopes to run the place.
As far as the obesity market goes, Medicare and Medicaid will never cover an obesity product and very few commercial plans will either because people can always eat less and eat healthier. There’s not much that can be done for the large majority of diabetics other than pharmacotherapy. And before you tell me obesity leads to diabetes, you are right, it does but glp1s are band aids for obese people. They can eat through it and the vast majority of them do. It’s not a cure all and insurance companies know that. Stop letting novo brainwash you.
 








anonymous said:
Let’s revisit this in 2 years and see who is right.
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It's called the writing on the wall. Time will always tell but fortune favors the prepared. Gwt tight and talk to the rams.
Yes lots of room to grow, we'll make money but these estimates are based on people with obesity. Not people on health plans that will actually cover it.
 




















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