Neurocrine for sale?

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anonymous said:
Layoffs coming by end of summer if that is the case.
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It's possible. One reason to enlarge your sales force is to drive up the sales price of your company. So, if they do not have a buyer, they probably will downsize because LTC are not open to reps still and the ingrezza indication for HD with ING is not until July 2023 because of AUS orphan status. Then look at the company stock purchasing over the last month to push up thier stock. Everything points to a selling of the company this year and by the end of summer. Question is what happens if no one buys the company? It has to restructure, because all its moves up to this point have been to sell. As Goldman Sachs indicated. And that's why they see short term growth in the stock of up to 32%. But what happens to the stock with no buyer? Neurocrine has missed its last 4 forecasts.
 






Most of rx’s are for nursing home patients already - written by my psyche that have clinic and visit LTC facilities. It’s gonna be hunger games when the company starts dividing credit for LTC and office based reps. Zone director said that leadership is aware that they did dual credit until they have better data because “people will be at each other’s throats”.
 






Something is happening. When the markets were tanking Neurocrine stock was going up and it is rumored by ZACs that there are possibly 2 buys. Do not know what that means. Does that mean buying a drug from neurocrine or the company. But there are buyers talking to Neurocrine.
 






anonymous said:
Something is happening. When the markets were tanking Neurocrine stock was going up and it is rumored by ZACs that there are possibly 2 buys. Do not know what that means. Does that mean buying a drug from neurocrine or the company. But there are buyers talking to Neurocrine.
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Great than that means we'll have to add additional sales reps to our already over-inflated salesforce.
 






anonymous said:
Great than that means we'll have to add additional sales reps to our already over-inflated salesforce.
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More than likely they will do a reorg. They can't let everyone go but they can't keep everyone either. I would expect neuro to be eliminated or downsized, LTC would be gone and field sales downsized aswell. These bigger companies are not going to lay their own reps off. We will do a reorg once our company is officially acquired and they give a date of that acquisition. A week or two before will be a bloodbath here at neurocrine. All the execs will be given a golden parachute to leave or will be absorbed into the new company for transition purposes. Just watch. This sucks!
 






There will be a reorg or massive downsize before the the acquisition. The company buying neurocrine will not let go of thier own reps. They will have neurocrine do it before the acquisition because it will be part of the deal. It prevents the new company from dealing with severance and vested money. Got to protect investors and the bottom line
 












anonymous said:
Where all you people coming up with this "Neurocrine being sold" crap. I have been here a while and I haven't heard any rumors or talk of any kind of acquisition.
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It has been reported in several articles in ZACs, Goldman Sachs bumped Neurocrine 2 weeks ago to a "buy" for the next 6 months because Neurocrine is pushing thier stock up in value for several potential buyers by summer and Fierce Pharma has several stories one by Moody's basically saying Neurocrine is shopping for buyers but also stated they were not sure if it was for some of their products or for the company....but it does not matter how long you been with neurocrine is looks like they are selling. JPMorgan/Stanley said Neurocrine was beefing up it's Salesforce, pushing its stock up and keeping overhead to a minimum (company cars, certain budgets/expenses and short term bonuses). The one concern was LTC lawsuits on the east coast over AE/deaths and possible concers involving Medical Fraud in CA which is why there are concerns over CA dropping Neurocrine from Medicaid. You can google this stuff. It's public info.
 






anonymous said:
It has been reported in several articles in ZACs, Goldman Sachs bumped Neurocrine 2 weeks ago to a "buy" for the next 6 months because Neurocrine is pushing thier stock up in value for several potential buyers by summer and Fierce Pharma has several stories one by Moody's basically saying Neurocrine is shopping for buyers but also stated they were not sure if it was for some of their products or for the company....but it does not matter how long you been with neurocrine is looks like they are selling. JPMorgan/Stanley said Neurocrine was beefing up it's Salesforce, pushing its stock up and keeping overhead to a minimum (company cars, certain budgets/expenses and short term bonuses). The one concern was LTC lawsuits on the east coast over AE/deaths and possible concers involving Medical Fraud in CA which is why there are concerns over CA dropping Neurocrine from Medicaid. You can google this stuff. It's public info.
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EXACTLY why I didn’t move over to LTC.
 






Doesn’t a company cut sales forces and expenses to sell? They don’t expand. We are too expensive for anyone to want to buy. And if we do get bought we all make $$$. What are y’all freaking out about?


We won’t be sold and everything is fine.
 






Agreed and with all these inflated salaries folks are getting to come over here from other companies, that would most certainly drive up operating costs. How can the stock be attractive with added expenditures. Our sales haven't actually been blowing us out of he water the last 2 years.
 






The bloated staff / bloated salaries won't matter because the bloat would be cut as part of the transaction (before, during, or immediately after).

If we can demonstrate that there's an untapped market for VMAT2 products, then adding a compound to a reps bag makes sense. If the poor performance reflects what the investment and medical community have been saying, then it's just a slog, and ROI isn't there. it's only an opportunity for a firm with an existing large-scale sales force - that's the synergy.

Look for the street to scrutinize abandonment rates. Many conditions are easily confused for TD, so initial scripts don't reflect the true market. Those misdiagnosed patients abandon the product within a few months because they're getting no symptom relief and simultaneously suffering from non-trivial side effects. That monthly call from the pharmacy to sweep the refills means a few refills happen before the true abandonment rate is known. Even if the diagnosis is right, patients may not stay on therapy, overall life's less fun without dopamine :-(
 






anonymous said:
The bloated staff / bloated salaries won't matter because the bloat would be cut as part of the transaction (before, during, or immediately after).

If we can demonstrate that there's an untapped market for VMAT2 products, then adding a compound to a reps bag makes sense. If the poor performance reflects what the investment and medical community have been saying, then it's just a slog, and ROI isn't there. it's only an opportunity for a firm with an existing large-scale sales force - that's the synergy.

Look for the street to scrutinize abandonment rates. Many conditions are easily confused for TD, so initial scripts don't reflect the true market. Those misdiagnosed patients abandon the product within a few months because they're getting no symptom relief and simultaneously suffering from non-trivial side effects. That monthly call from the pharmacy to sweep the refills means a few refills happen before the true abandonment rate is known. Even if the diagnosis is right, patients may not stay on therapy, overall life's less fun without dopamine :-(
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Dude, the drug has been out for 5 years. Any abandonment and difficulty in diagnosing is a not a new issue and won’t affect the growth trajectory. I’m not saying that the company won’t be bought, but “the street” is even smart enough to realize that there is plenty of data supporting the future opportunity. The only newer factor in the market considered my the street is the return of in person visits.
 






anonymous said:
Doesn’t a company cut sales forces and expenses to sell? They don’t expand. We are too expensive for anyone to want to buy. And if we do get bought we all make $$$. What are y’all freaking out about?


We won’t be sold and everything is fine.
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You are perfect for a buy. Its funny you thunk you know more about your company then the shareholders and hedgefunders who do this for a living. Neurocrine is a great buy for Pfizer or abbvie right now. At least according to Goldman Sachs
 






anonymous said:
Agreed and with all these inflated salaries folks are getting to come over here from other companies, that would most certainly drive up operating costs. How can the stock be attractive with added expenditures. Our sales haven't actually been blowing us out of he water the last 2 years.
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Inflated salaries that are just being paid out. It's not like they have been paying for this enlarged sales force for the last decade. If neurocrine is acquired, you only have to pay 3 months salary to those new hires. Remember those new hires drove the stock up. Those new hires are on a company stock purchasing plan which companies use to push up thier stock. Also increasing short term head count drives up the value of the company. I mean come on....are you new to pharma? How many times have we seen companies do a massive hiring then have layoffs 6 months later when they sell the drug or company? Pfizer, j&j, abbvie, lilly, moderna, etc have they even grown their pipelines in the last 25yrs? No! They basically just acquired companies. And you think they do not have the money? ....lol!
 






All these comments are spot on and for those of you who don't believe it, just sit back and watch it happen. Ive been in this industry for 12 years and was caught up in this type of scenario. Better have a game plan everyone. This could be happening here with us.
 






anonymous said:
All these comments are spot on and for those of you who don't believe it, just sit back and watch it happen. Ive been in this industry for 12 years and was caught up in this type of scenario. Better have a game plan everyone. This could be happening here with us.
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Neurocrine is only worth $8.5 billion with no real debt or overhead costs like cars and that. So, they can be acquired by many pharma companies out there. Pfizer and moderna mane tens of billions off of the vaccines alone. Heck they could buy teva which is worth $17 billion. Granted that does not include debt and lawsuits. But teva stock will go through the roof if they resolve the opioid lawsuits. On paper they look great. It's just the lawsuits. Of the two, Neurocrine is primed for an acquisition.
 






Agreed that they've done everything right to allow an acquisition, a true "built to flip" situation. What remains is to show the product is worth acquiring. The ramp-up in sales and seemingly irrational comp is aimed at showing it has the potential to be a bigger product. Some say the market just doesn't exist while many know it's just the pandemic and telemedicine. So get out there and sell, sell sell! I have a villa in Tuscany that needs that buy-out!
 






There is another clue. Neurocrine dumped some voucher programs. That's to boost short term sales numbers to jack up value of a company during negotiations to imply increased sales will continue for long term growth. That guy who said an acquisition by end of summer might be on to something
 






Not with Neurocrine but been watching several blogs since one of my clients asked the question. My firm has numerous positions in NBIX and mentioned this site and I have to tell you that I am appalled by these type of conversations. Yes, there has been a lot of talk on the street about some divesting of assets, but in the grand scheme of things, nothing will happen until the 2nd quarter results are in. My gut is and simply as an out side perspective, a lot of this speculation certainly holds water, but please refrain from posting idiotic things on public boards. M&A always have creative ways of working out and you all might be doing more harm than good. Best of luck to all of you.
 






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