More Buyouts Seen In Generic Drug Sector
Vance Cariaga
On Friday June 19, 2009, 6:09 pm EDT
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Many billions of dollars will be up for grabs in coming years as big-selling drugs go off patent and emerging markets increase their spending on pharmaceuticals.
It's no surprise, then, that generic drugmakers are doing all they can to gain an edge. Buyouts continue to be an important part of the equation.
Last week brought news of one acquisition in the sector -- Watson Pharmaceuticals' $1.75 billion buy of generic drugmaker Arrow Group -- as well as reports that Teva Pharmaceuticals will pursue more deals to solidify its position atop the generic drug industry.
Other players might also eyeball deals as the sector moves to expand its geographic footprint. Much of the activity likely will focus on emerging markets, says Les Funtleyder, an analyst at Miller Tabak & Co.
"If you think about the developing middle class in the emerging world, one of the first things they're going to do is look at health care," he said. "So you can assume that health care spending growth is going to grow at a multiple of GDP growth. And they're not going to go to branded drugs first -- they're going to go to generic drugs because they're cheaper and just as dependable."
Elementary Move For Watson
Watson, based in Corona, Calif., is expected to grow its international business with the Arrow acquisition, announced on June 18.
"(Watson) needed to increase its ex-U.S. exposure to offset U.S. generics competition/price erosion," Citi Investment Research analyst John Boris wrote in a note the day the deal was announced. "The Arrow acquisition makes strategic and financial sense for (Watson) in our view."
Wall Street seemed to agree. Watson shares rose 5% on the day the deal was announced, then moved up 5.3% a day later.
Shares faltered in midday trading Friday, however.
Watson said the combined company will have about $3 billion in annual revenue and do business in more than 20 countries. The company expects the deal to close later this year.
One potential benefit of the deal is that it will bring greater market diversity to Watson, which does almost all of its business in the U.S.
Around 75% of Arrow sales come from the U.S., France, Canada and the U.K., Boris noted. That percentage might change under the new ownership, however.
"Watson plans on expanding into Central and Eastern Europe, Brazil and Japan," Boris wrote. "Arrow already has registered products but no commercial presence in Italy, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Turkey and Japan."
Boris maintained a hold rating and a price target of $34 on Watson's stock. Shares have traded between 20.17 and 32.95 over the past year.
Bulking Up
Funtleyder, who doesn't follow Watson, says the deal should help it gain more pricing power.
"There are benefits to scale in generics," he said. "Companies can drive down costs in distribution as well as raw materials. The rationale behind the deal makes sense in that they're expanding into places (where) they aren't currently significant."
Arrow logged $647 million in sales last year. It owns the U.S. rights to the authorized generic version of Pfizer's cholesterol drug Lipitor, which is the best-selling brand-name drug in the world. The generic version is expected to reach the market in November 2011.
Lipitor is one of a few blockbuster drugs due to go off patent beginning in 2011. Others are Plavix, a blood thinner co-marketed by Bristol-Myers Squibb and Sanofi-Aventis ; and Viagra, an erectile dysfunction treatment sold by Pfizer.
All kinds of drugmakers -- including those that currently specialize in branded medicines -- are expected to move into the generic space as more big-selling drugs go off patent.
"Teva and Novartis/Sandoz are the biggest -- I would expect them to do more buyouts," Funtleyder said. "Eli Lilly and Pfizer are bolstering their generic brands. 2011 and 2012 are big years for brand-name drugs going generic, and I would expect to see some more consolidation activity because of that."
With nearly $12 billion in annual sales, Teva towers over the rest of the field. No. 2 generic drugmaker Mylan has around $5 billion in annual sales. Teva fattened up considerably in 2008 with its $7.4 billion buyout of Barr Laboratories.
Last week Teva Chief Executive Shlomo Yanai told Bloomberg News his company is ready for another major buyout and might look beyond generics.