How many years have I heard layoffs

Anonymous

Guest
we just hired a new hospital force, now a new specialty force, then upcoming a new territory sales force along with managers and trainers - so with people of opportunity to advance and also forest has never had layoffs, the majority of everyone still complains complains.

what a joke - Get a life - get your mind out of the gutter

Also I may drink the cool aid but I like having a great job and supporting my family
 


















yes, employment at Forest could take "a turn for the worse" at any moment, but isn't that true of EVERY company? Other bad things could happen, too:

you could be in an accident today....
you may be diagnosed with a disease....
your kid might get sick....
your house could burn down....

my point is bad things happen in life. But people on this board (at least most of them) believe bad things happen every minute of every workday for everyone employed by Forest.

the silent majoriety doesn't like everything going on at Forest, but we realize we must have some degree of "positivity" in our lives - both professional and personal. If something bad happens, we deal with it and move on with our lives....we don't dwell on it or bitch while waiting for a layoff to happen. Matter of fact, we find comfort in the fact that forest has never had a layoff, and we continue to add new people.

OK...how long until someone blasts me with a "drinking the kool-aid" comment???
 






Fair enough, I agree, many of us have been there. I know what it's like to think...
-man am I lucky! I'll probably never leave Forest.
-How awesome is it to feel so appreciated? (I don't even know how many snazzy plaques I have on my office wall but damn I must be good! Why would they EVER get rid of me?)
-I wonder what it will be like to be out in the field when I am old? Oh, no worries I'll probably have some awesome imaginary spot by then, because there aren't too many older reps out there. Huh, that must be why.
-Why would they ever want ME to resign? I'm awesome.
-All these complainers are probably lazy...start working lame asses! Check me out! They like me!
-I am so smart and represent the company so well. The docs respect me and I have so many strong relationships, wow it feels good to be an asset to Forest, I'm probably driving up the stock price all by myself!

I have more....
 






yes, employment at Forest could take "a turn for the worse" at any moment, but isn't that true of EVERY company? Other bad things could happen, too:

you could be in an accident today....
you may be diagnosed with a disease....
your kid might get sick....
your house could burn down....

my point is bad things happen in life. But people on this board (at least most of them) believe bad things happen every minute of every workday for everyone employed by Forest.

the silent majoriety doesn't like everything going on at Forest, but we realize we must have some degree of "positivity" in our lives - both professional and personal. If something bad happens, we deal with it and move on with our lives....we don't dwell on it or bitch while waiting for a layoff to happen. Matter of fact, we find comfort in the fact that forest has never had a layoff, and we continue to add new people.

OK...how long until someone blasts me with a "drinking the kool-aid" comment???

How enlightening Aristotle!!! Just know that YOU may have a decent situation but there are other people not as fortunate as you at Forest.

But go ahead and find COMFORT in the fact that Forest has never had layoffs...because you know past history is a great predictor of future events! I can also tell you something Forest have never done before...that is face patent expiration of their lead product that brings in ~60% of their revenue with nothing remotely close (in revenue generating) to replacing it.

There is optimism, there is blind optimism, there is even ignorant optimism...but then there is stupidity. There is a perfect storm coming together right now for a downsizing or right sizing in the future despite the hiring that is going on in the present. Forest may keep all of the hospital sales force...maybe! But when they finally throw the towel in on the antibiotic, there will be cuts made on that segment of the business. When that is, I am not sure. Could be 2 year from now, could be 5. But there is possible that Forest acquires a second “Hospital specific” drug to add onto the hospital sales force. That is always the wild card at Forest. Acquisitions of a phase II or III product can change everything. But with Howard starting to back out of the business more and more and the patent expiration of Lexapro, a very realistic scenario exists for Forest to be bought. It will be in a very attractive position for a buyout. You have just lost you #1 product so the value of Forest goes down. But with a pretty rich pipeline, companies that have really gotten killed recently with losing drug approvals and have empty coffers for future products will look at Forest for that reason to acquire. If an acquisition occurs, then probably the entire sales force gets laid off to the tune of what happened to Wyeth then they were bought out by Pfizer.

Forest will probably keep the new sales division they are hiring. Those reps most likely will have lower salaries because they will have low Forest Tenure. They will be handpicked for a specific purpose and Forest will see this as a plus instead of trying to take an existing Forest rep that is set in their ways and limited in their experience (as far as not matching the new focus of Forest like COPD, GI, antipsychotic, etc) and teach them new tricks.

However there is no need for a specialty rep and 2 x 4 reps plus the additional sales force. At least half of the "Pod" structure will be cut. Why do you think there was a reorganization? I am going to assume that you bought the line about more accountability where 1 manager has 2 reps in a Pod and only having 2 managers leading a pod instead of the 4 manager structure that was in place a few years back? They got you hook, line, and sinker. Well the reason they did the reorganization is so that they can slice off 1/2 the sales force and 1/2 of the managers. This will make a clean cut. Honestly, I am not sure how they are going to do it. Are they going to just say Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare are no longer needed nor are their associated managers and therefore they are gone? Or are they going to say we have 1 manager spot and 2 rep spots, go at it and the best rep/manager wins. Either way the result is the same; a layoff.

Forest has had consulting companies looking at this for a few years now. If there is something Forest does well is managing their marketing, meaning understanding what they need to do with what the future has in store. So what Forest is doing is preparing for a future that is all positive. That is why you are seeing hiring. Of course they are going to continue to go through with their plans. They should unless something happens otherwise. However, let me tell you that when something does go wrong, like the non-approval of Daxis or the approval of Daxis for Exacerbations of COPD only instead of the entire disease state, they will put the brakes on.

The one thing you cannot argue is that $2.3 billion in revenue is going away in about a year. Forest has total revenue of approx. $4 billion. This is an estimation taking 2009 revenue and adding in Bystolic and Savella. Lexapro is a $2.3 billion product or 58% of the revenue. When that goes away the overhead will be way to high to keep the earnings per share where they need to be. If they let things go too long, then investor confidence will waver and a big sell off will happen. I can see Forest Stock hitting $5 - $10 a share. Now if you lay off 1/2 the sales force and their corresponding corporate support employees, then overhead goes down. Investors are happy.

I deal in hard fact to help understand what may happen in the future. Not wishy washy philosophy or slap happy ignorant blind faith in the company. If you are loyal to any company (more specifically a publicly traded company) you need a serious reality check or a slap in the face to wake you up...or at least have you sterilized so you cannot contaminate the rest of the human species...better yet let’s just go with the slap and sterilize and get maximum effect. The loyalty never goes the other way. You are a number to them and once you affect the bottom line like you will in a year, it is adios amigos!

Lastly, the reason many reps complain on this site is because the Forest culture has take a trun so far into the depths of hell, that people have nowhere else to vent. This is what happens when you have a managerial hiring process like the one at Forest. The internal managerial training program at forest is a joke if it exists at all. Most of the time there is an opening because the manager left the company or got fired and they pick the last person standing in the room despite their qualifications. OK that is an exaggeration but the assessment center and the interview process are a joke. You cannot have the RD, the AMT and other managerial yahoo's doing the assessing. You need to have an objective outside company with no "dog in the race" doing the assessment. At other companies there are training programs that take a year to prepare for just to start the program, then 2 - 3 years of various classes/seminars and assignments and working with your current manager. And to check progress and make sure you are the right person to continue the program, you are assessed periodically throughout the process by an outside company who rates you and recommends where you are in your training despite the time put in.

So what ends up happening at Forest is that you get these managers that may have been good sales reps, or may be able to spit out a corporate bullshit line, but have no idea how to manage people. I love the managers who say, “stop complaining” or “its not personal its business” and “ all it comes down to are the numbers”. Well those are the managers that drive good reps away. If you need to explain to a sales person that it is about the numbers then either that rep is not the right person for the job or the manager is a complete idiot with very little social intelligence. I think the latter is the case, at least from my personal experience. It is because Forest hires/promotes these managers who are not right for the job.

Let me let you in an a few secrets. The best sales reps don't necessarily make the best managers and in most cases are not the right people for that type of a job. Secondly, from a managerial standpoint it is not about the numbers. IT IS ABOUT THE PEOPLE! And because of this it is personal. It is very personal. You can make sure that you separate personal from professional but it all comes down to how you treat the reps, how you handle adversity, how you motivate, how you filter the shit from the top, and most importantly how you instill trust in your team. This is where most Forest managers go wrong and it is such a simple concept and so important. Thirdly, negative motivation, like threatening ones job, is never the correct route to take. While it may be productive in the short run, it never pans out in the long run and in fact it eventually completely counters any initial positive results. If you manager the person correctly, then the numbers will take care of themselves. Now that is oversimplified, but you get the picture. Lastly, the culture at Forest is very unprofessional. The sales force is not treated like adults or professionals. I cannot believe a company that will look for negative behaviors at training and report it back to their DM. If you want to treat someone like an adult, you bring the issue up to the person and let them address it first.

But hell, i come to expect nothing less at Forest. Just know that there are a lot of opportunities out there. Find the Job that is the right fit for you. Do it soon though because the layoffs ARE coming!!

As for the above Poster, if you are happy where you are, then good for you. We should all be so lucky. I am actually happy for you. I did something about it. I am not going to be around for layoffs even if there are severance packages...but to each his/her own.

Good luck!

EconomicsTeacher101
 






yes, employment at Forest could take "a turn for the worse" at any moment, but isn't that true of EVERY company? Other bad things could happen, too:

you could be in an accident today....
you may be diagnosed with a disease....
your kid might get sick....
your house could burn down....

my point is bad things happen in life. But people on this board (at least most of them) believe bad things happen every minute of every workday for everyone employed by Forest.

the silent majoriety doesn't like everything going on at Forest, but we realize we must have some degree of "positivity" in our lives - both professional and personal. If something bad happens, we deal with it and move on with our lives....we don't dwell on it or bitch while waiting for a layoff to happen. Matter of fact, we find comfort in the fact that forest has never had a layoff, and we continue to add new people.

OK...how long until someone blasts me with a "drinking the kool-aid" comment???

How enlightening Aristotle!!! Just know that YOU may have a decent situation but there are other people not as fortunate as you at Forest.

But go ahead and find COMFORT in the fact that Forest has never had layoffs...because you know past history is a great predictor of future events! I can also tell you something Forest have never done before...that is face patent expiration of their lead product that brings in ~60% of their revenue with nothing remotely close (in revenue generating) to replacing it.

There is optimism, there is blind optimism, there is even ignorant optimism...but then there is stupidity. There is a perfect storm coming together right now for a downsizing or right sizing in the future despite the hiring that is going on in the present. Forest may keep all of the hospital sales force...maybe! But when they finally throw the towel in on the antibiotic, there will be cuts made on that segment of the business. When that is, I am not sure. Could be 2 year from now, could be 5. But there is possible that Forest acquires a second “Hospital specific” drug to add onto the hospital sales force. That is always the wild card at Forest. Acquisitions of a phase II or III product can change everything. But with Howard starting to back out of the business more and more and the patent expiration of Lexapro, a very realistic scenario exists for Forest to be bought. It will be in a very attractive position for a buyout. You have just lost you #1 product so the value of Forest goes down. But with a pretty rich pipeline, companies that have really gotten killed recently with losing drug approvals and have empty coffers for future products will look at Forest for that reason to acquire. If an acquisition occurs, then probably the entire sales force gets laid off to the tune of what happened to Wyeth then they were bought out by Pfizer.

Forest will probably keep the new sales division they are hiring. Those reps most likely will have lower salaries because they will have low Forest Tenure. They will be handpicked for a specific purpose and Forest will see this as a plus instead of trying to take an existing Forest rep that is set in their ways and limited in their experience (as far as not matching the new focus of Forest like COPD, GI, antipsychotic, etc) and teach them new tricks.

However there is no need for a specialty rep and 2 x 4 reps plus the additional sales force. At least half of the "Pod" structure will be cut. Why do you think there was a reorganization? I am going to assume that you bought the line about more accountability where 1 manager has 2 reps in a Pod and only having 2 managers leading a pod instead of the 4 manager structure that was in place a few years back? They got you hook, line, and sinker. Well the reason they did the reorganization is so that they can slice off 1/2 the sales force and 1/2 of the managers. This will make a clean cut. Honestly, I am not sure how they are going to do it. Are they going to just say Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare are no longer needed nor are their associated managers and therefore they are gone? Or are they going to say we have 1 manager spot and 2 rep spots, go at it and the best rep/manager wins. Either way the result is the same; a layoff.

Forest has had consulting companies looking at this for a few years now. If there is something Forest does well is managing their marketing, meaning understanding what they need to do with what the future has in store. So what Forest is doing is preparing for a future that is all positive. That is why you are seeing hiring. Of course they are going to continue to go through with their plans. They should unless something happens otherwise. However, let me tell you that when something does go wrong, like the non-approval of Daxis or the approval of Daxis for Exacerbations of COPD only instead of the entire disease state, they will put the brakes on.

The one thing you cannot argue is that $2.3 billion in revenue is going away in about a year. Forest has total revenue of approx. $4 billion. This is an estimation taking 2009 revenue and adding in Bystolic and Savella. Lexapro is a $2.3 billion product or 58% of the revenue. When that goes away the overhead will be way to high to keep the earnings per share where they need to be. If they let things go too long, then investor confidence will waver and a big sell off will happen. I can see Forest Stock hitting $5 - $10 a share. Now if you lay off 1/2 the sales force and their corresponding corporate support employees, then overhead goes down. Investors are happy.

I deal in hard fact to help understand what may happen in the future. Not wishy washy philosophy or slap happy ignorant blind faith in the company. If you are loyal to any company (more specifically a publicly traded company) you need a serious reality check or a slap in the face to wake you up...or at least have you sterilized so you cannot contaminate the rest of the human species...better yet let’s just go with the slap and sterilize and get maximum effect. The loyalty never goes the other way. You are a number to them and once you affect the bottom line like you will in a year, it is adios amigos!

Lastly, the reason many reps complain on this site is because the Forest culture has take a trun so far into the depths of hell, that people have nowhere else to vent. This is what happens when you have a managerial hiring process like the one at Forest. The internal managerial training program at forest is a joke if it exists at all. Most of the time there is an opening because the manager left the company or got fired and they pick the last person standing in the room despite their qualifications. OK that is an exaggeration but the assessment center and the interview process are a joke. You cannot have the RD, the AMT and other managerial yahoo's doing the assessing. You need to have an objective outside company with no "dog in the race" doing the assessment. At other companies there are training programs that take a year to prepare for just to start the program, then 2 - 3 years of various classes/seminars and assignments and working with your current manager. And to check progress and make sure you are the right person to continue the program, you are assessed periodically throughout the process by an outside company who rates you and recommends where you are in your training despite the time put in.

So what ends up happening at Forest is that you get these managers that may have been good sales reps, or may be able to spit out a corporate bullshit line, but have no idea how to manage people. I love the managers who say, “stop complaining” or “its not personal its business” and “ all it comes down to are the numbers”. Well those are the managers that drive good reps away. If you need to explain to a sales person that it is about the numbers then either that rep is not the right person for the job or the manager is a complete idiot with very little social intelligence. I think the latter is the case, at least from my personal experience. It is because Forest hires/promotes these managers who are not right for the job.

Let me let you in an a few secrets. The best sales reps don't necessarily make the best managers and in most cases are not the right people for that type of a job. Secondly, from a managerial standpoint it is not about the numbers. IT IS ABOUT THE PEOPLE! And because of this it is personal. It is very personal. You can make sure that you separate personal from professional but it all comes down to how you treat the reps, how you handle adversity, how you motivate, how you filter the shit from the top, and most importantly how you instill trust in your team. This is where most Forest managers go wrong and it is such a simple concept and so important. Thirdly, negative motivation, like threatening ones job, is never the correct route to take. While it may be productive in the short run, it never pans out in the long run and in fact it eventually completely counters any initial positive results. If you manager the person correctly, then the numbers will take care of themselves. Now that is oversimplified, but you get the picture. Lastly, the culture at Forest is very unprofessional. The sales force is not treated like adults or professionals. I cannot believe a company that will look for negative behaviors at training and report it back to their DM. If you want to treat someone like an adult, you bring the issue up to the person and let them address it first.

But hell, i come to expect nothing less at Forest. Just know that there are a lot of opportunities out there. Find the Job that is the right fit for you. Do it soon though because the layoffs ARE coming!!

As for the above Poster, if you are happy where you are, then good for you. We should all be so lucky. I am actually happy for you. I did something about it. I am not going to be around for layoffs even if there are severance packages...but to each his/her own.

Good luck!

EconomicsTeacher101
 












I can't comment on your entire post - it must have been very therapeutic for you to write a 5000+ word essay like that - but I will comment on your opening premise:

"forest has never faced patent expiration of it's lead product generating 60% of its revenue before"

Actually, we have....at least three times:

Lorcet: You could actually list this product several times. Lorcet had several line extensions, and became Forest primary profit generator. Then it went generic...all of it....Lorcet...Lorcet Plus...then Lorcet 10/650. We did not lay off people...we got new products and grew through it.

Tiazac: Forest's first $200MM drug...actually grew to close to $400MM if I remember right. It went generic...the company acquired new products....we kept growing thru it.

Celexa: Forest's first $1BB drug....accounted for nearly 80% of sales at its peak. It went generic. Forest acquired other products...we grew throught it.\

And I did not mention Tessalon or the Esgic line, even through the same was true then but on a much smaller scale.

So your premise is wrong...but glad you got all that off your chest...
 






Don't forget Aerobid!!!

That stuff was like shit in a can!!!! Yum Yum!!!

Then we had Aerobid M!!!!

that was like shit in a can with a hint of menthol!!!!!

As for layoffs... Forest has never lost a drug like Lexapro to generic. They can not keep up with what they currently have because what we currently have is not picking up the slack for what we will lose on Lexapro. Sure our newly acquired Antidepressant will help, but we are launching it into a generic market. You will have to convince doctors, pharmacies, and formularies that it is worlds different than what is in generic form. Then still that probably wont be enough.

Sure use samples to leverage scripts, after all, there are not many being sampled right now. But at the end of the day, the new drug will not make a scratch on what Lexapro did when it was launched!!!

How many generic antidepressants are out there now???

Layoffs will come!!!!

Sorry, I Prefer Reality over Cool Aid any day of the week!!!
 






The guy/girl mentioning Lorcet, Tiazac, etc. Is an idiot!!!!

Please tell me you are not comparing Lexapro going Generic to this drugs????

For God's sake, you even mentioned Tessalon Pearls! That made me laugh.

Luckily, I was not around to sell any of these fine products, but I do know the history!

In your comments, you mentioned going from one drug to another, acquiring new drugs that did better than the one before, etc.

Tell me one drug we are in the process of acquiring that will out perform Lexapro? Heck, tell me one drug that we currently have that has that potential? Heck, lets make this interesting, feel free to make up a drug and tell us what it does that would come close to doing what Lexapro has done?

Unless you have a cure for Cancer or AIDS, there are not any. Your examples are looking in the past. Looking at a company that grew with the products it sold. Not looking at a company that has been held up and robbed.

Here is a good example. You Mr. Forest Guy/Girl. You love your job, right? All the sudden, Mr. Soloman lays your backside off. Now, you have a house, bills, etc. But at the unemployment office, they are only going to give you 25% of what you were making at Forest. Say your bills = $2000 a month. Unemployment gives you $550 a month. that a difference of $1450. Now, you figure out a way to come up with the rest. You can sell your worldly possessions on Ebay. (i.e. Laying off tenured reps) That might help in the short turn, but then you will be left with nothing and still not making ends meet. Then you short sale your house so you don't go into Foreclosure, if you are able too. (i.s. Sell the company)

This is a great example of what Forest is facing. If you are trying to tell us that isn't the case, you are either...

1. An Idiot
2. A Manager
3. Not an employee trying to get people to not leave Forest so your job hunt will be easier!

Either way, this company is screwed. You should buy lube, because we know that before the company screws itself, it would rather screw you!!!! :)
 






That guy did not claim the other drugs were equal to Lexapro.
He simply stated the premise that this company has never lost "its leading drug to generic competition" before (and the implied thought that therefore layoffs were an absolute certainty this time) was not based on fact.
Celexa did $1.8MM at it's peak...that 77% of today's Lexapro sales.
So there is some basis for at least a discussion of how Forest has handled previous flagship products going generic.
Forest does not need the new anti-depressant to have a 15% share....a 5% share, which can be captured with refractory patients alone, would push sales to $750MM
Chicken little was wrong - the sky was not falling.
There are tooo many chicken little's on this site.
 






BTW - you don't hire 400+ new people only to turn around and lay people off months later. The company had a legitimate reason to shift a PCP sales for to OBSR, and weed out all the dead wood in the process. Instead, they selected to expand. So all the people yelling "layoffs coming in the next couple of months" are just flat out wrong. Why wouldn't people be glad about that?
 






BTW - you don't hire 400+ new people only to turn around and lay people off months later. The company had a legitimate reason to shift a PCP sales for to OBSR, and weed out all the dead wood in the process. Instead, they selected to expand. So all the people yelling "layoffs coming in the next couple of months" are just flat out wrong. Why wouldn't people be glad about that?

It's not that we want layoffs. We are just a bit more realistic than those that believe everything that comes out of upper management's mouth as gospel. Look there have already been 15 lawsuits around the buyout of Clinical Data. Many experts say that this deal may not even happen or if it does it would most likely be delayed due to the lawsuits. So again, Forest hasn't accomplished anything yet. The longer this takes the closer it is to Lexapro being going. And remember the sales force without the hospital expansion and this new upcoming expansion cost the company over $1B a year. These expansions will only make this go up. Viibryd and Daxas together will not make up what Lexapro revenues are so why would the company ever think about increasing their costs knowing this. It really makes one wonder if there isn't something else going on here. To me Viibryd seems like the second coming of Bystolic. Remember launching Bystolic in a crowded generic market where we were basically forced into selling the drug for BB failures due to side effects - in particular sexual side effects. At the end of the day these drugs sell some cause they are good meds but the math still will not add up. We will not be bringing in as much money and we will now be incurring more costs.
 






BTW - you don't hire 400+ new people only to turn around and lay people off months later. The company had a legitimate reason to shift a PCP sales for to OBSR, and weed out all the dead wood in the process. Instead, they selected to expand. So all the people yelling "layoffs coming in the next couple of months" are just flat out wrong. Why wouldn't people be glad about that?

To answer your question, an earlier poster mentioned Wyeth and the buyout there years ago. A friend of mine was hired by Wyeth and then laid off six weeks after being out in the field. That was mere moments before the buyout. Food for thought....
 






I can't comment on your entire post - it must have been very therapeutic for you to write a 5000+ word essay like that - but I will comment on your opening premise:

"forest has never faced patent expiration of it's lead product generating 60% of its revenue before"

Actually, we have....at least three times:

Lorcet: You could actually list this product several times. Lorcet had several line extensions, and became Forest primary profit generator. Then it went generic...all of it....Lorcet...Lorcet Plus...then Lorcet 10/650. We did not lay off people...we got new products and grew through it.

Tiazac: Forest's first $200MM drug...actually grew to close to $400MM if I remember right. It went generic...the company acquired new products....we kept growing thru it.

Celexa: Forest's first $1BB drug....accounted for nearly 80% of sales at its peak. It went generic. Forest acquired other products...we grew throught it.\

And I did not mention Tessalon or the Esgic line, even through the same was true then but on a much smaller scale.

So your premise is wrong...but glad you got all that off your chest...

I looked back at the long post and WOW that was a long post. lol! Sometimes I get going and don't stop. But I apologize for the double post. I didn't catch the 2 second confirmation screen that said a moderator had to approve the post because of it length.

I knew and predicted that when I wrote the following line someone was going to reference Celexa showing that they didn't read the rest of the statement, or doesn’t have the business sense to connect the dots. But that is what Forest is left with now, a bunch of type A personalities with no business sense or people skills...and that my friend is how we describe the managers!

Here is the line copied word for word!
"I can also tell you something Forest have never done before...that is face patent expiration of their lead product that brings in ~60% of their revenue with nothing remotely close (in revenue generating) to replacing it."

That last part is the operating phrase. Celexa had Lexapro and Namenda. Lexapro was launched in a fully branded market (Can't remember Prozac's patent exp year? 2003?) and Namenda was launched in a market where it was the first of it class (hitting the NMDA receptor) making it a novel product expected to generate significant revenue dollars. So Forest had those two life preservers to replace the revenue of Celexa. I am not sure if that is tough to grasp but if so I will try to explain it in another way for the third time.

You see the disconnect in understanding the business is in the business model itself especially with the older products (which also had products that could replace the revenue after the patent expiration) the ratio of revenue dollars to sales force personnel was very high (Which is good and means high revenue and low overhead). So when a product went generic back then, even if there weren’t products to put into the market to have overlapped the expiring product, the ratio still stayed within acceptable limits.

Right now the ratio is in good standings with Lexapro in the mix. But when you remove 70% of the revenue (I saw some more recent numbers showing Lexapro makes up 70% of the Revenue in 2009) That ration drastically goes down. Bystolic and Savella are not going to come even close to replacing that lost monies. Namenda is due to expire as well (I think 2014 or 2015) So that means that Forest has 3 years to replace $3.2 Billion+ in sales. If you think that the combination of Bystolic, Savella, Seftaroline, Daxis, and the new Antidepressant will get close to that you are dreaming.

The wild card, like I said, is acquisitions. The acquisition of Clinical Data is definitely a wild card. No one can predict what will happen with absolute certainty. But my guess is that with Lexapro going generic, managed care companies will utilize Lexapro as a step option. Many may require patients to try Lexapro first before going to other generics. Lexapro's market share as a generic will approach 50% and may exceed that number. So the new antidepressant from Clinical Data will be left with the refractory patients that experience sexual dysfunction. You may be looking at most 8 - 10% of the entire pie and that is if you get all those patients which is not likely. If I were a managed care company I would put a double step in front of all branded antidepressants once Lexapro goes generic. I would require a trial of Lexapro first then a generic step after that. Then patients can try a branded antidepressant. This should be interesting to keep tabs on.

I also don't think that layoffs are going to happen in the next few months. If they happen it would be between 1.5 and 3 years from now. Forest just expanded and is going to split the sales force completely in half with totally different products. An entire new specialty sales force will be added on and 1 whole division if I am getting the information correct. Forest will ride this out and launch both Daxis and the antidepressant sometime over the next two to three months or so. They will let this ride out and see what gets generated.

My prediction is that they will not like what they see and have layoffs at the end of 2012 to early 2013.

But hey, what do I know? I don't even work for the company. I left and couldn't be happier. I jumped on board with a company that has a great culture and professional, high quality coworkers with no PODS. Have fun working within the POD structure, trying to get other reps to work a full day and having managers stir up trouble by talking propaganda smack about all the reps in the POD. I played that game too long and finally had enough. “Owning” your own business is such a pleasure.

For your sake Aristotle, I hope there are no layoffs because it seems that you like the company and are genuinely happy. I don't wish bad things on people. I just tell it like I see it.

Good luck!
 






The guy/girl mentioning Lorcet, Tiazac, etc. Is an idiot!!!!

Please tell me you are not comparing Lexapro going Generic to this drugs????

For God's sake, you even mentioned Tessalon Pearls! That made me laugh.

Luckily, I was not around to sell any of these fine products, but I do know the history!

In your comments, you mentioned going from one drug to another, acquiring new drugs that did better than the one before, etc.

Tell me one drug we are in the process of acquiring that will out perform Lexapro? Heck, tell me one drug that we currently have that has that potential? Heck, lets make this interesting, feel free to make up a drug and tell us what it does that would come close to doing what Lexapro has done?

Unless you have a cure for Cancer or AIDS, there are not any. Your examples are looking in the past. Looking at a company that grew with the products it sold. Not looking at a company that has been held up and robbed.

Here is a good example. You Mr. Forest Guy/Girl. You love your job, right? All the sudden, Mr. Soloman lays your backside off. Now, you have a house, bills, etc. But at the unemployment office, they are only going to give you 25% of what you were making at Forest. Say your bills = $2000 a month. Unemployment gives you $550 a month. that a difference of $1450. Now, you figure out a way to come up with the rest. You can sell your worldly possessions on Ebay. (i.e. Laying off tenured reps) That might help in the short turn, but then you will be left with nothing and still not making ends meet. Then you short sale your house so you don't go into Foreclosure, if you are able too. (i.s. Sell the company)

This is a great example of what Forest is facing. If you are trying to tell us that isn't the case, you are either...

1. An Idiot
2. A Manager
3. Not an employee trying to get people to not leave Forest so your job hunt will be easier!

Either way, this company is screwed. You should buy lube, because we know that before the company screws itself, it would rather screw you!!!! :)

I wrote the long post above. You are spot on with this assessment. I like your analogy. It might have been too complicatied though for some on the site to grasp. But we can dumb it down if we need to...because it seems that kool-aid blocks the ability to comprehend business concepts (Aristotle, there is your Kool-aid comment you have been waiting for...don't piss yourself with excitement!).

EconomicsTeacher101
 






Managed care anyone?

For those of you who were blessed with a territory that did not have this magic 2 word phrase consider yourself lucky. As patients look to drive costs down, pharmacists look to driver there bonus up (see CVS/Walgreens capitation/incentive plans for pharmacists to encourage switching the script up.) Add to it the spread of managed care from the Midwest throughout the rest of the USA. Doctors do not need to see a Forest rep 2 times a week. (speciality plus pod rep) Doctors just don't give Sh*t unless your drug really blows the doors off something else that does not have more than 5 generics in competition with your branded medication.

Now ask yourself all the questions you had before and see if your answer is the same.

Right sizing is over due, and if Howie was as good of an accountant as our famed Dr. "do-nothing". You would cut the specialty rep and 2 pod reps almost immediately and save the company and access to providers.
 






I agree with those who say layoffs will come. Maybe not next year, but certainly in the next couple of years. Those who think that we will just "replace" lexapro are delusional. Firstly, there are not that many blockbuster drugs anymore. Second, we live in a heavily managed healthcare system now that does not take too kindly to new and expensive drugs unless they are first in class, treat a new disease state, or blow existing meds out of the water.

Secondly, the sales force IS too big. I don't care what anyone says. You could at least lay off one division and shrink the number of targets that the remaining reps call on. You don't need a panel of 300 docs to succeed. 80/20 rule kids...and the law of diminishing returns. You know how much $ has to be spent to get a decile 1 b target to write!? Shrink the panel to 100-150 docs, get rid of the garbage (both lower decile docs and low performance reps) and Forest becomes much better able to weather the storm.

Getting rid of roughly 500 reps saves you $100m a year kids! And I dont think it would result in much, if at all, a dip in sales.

That $400m (over 4 years) will come in handy when all you have left is a $250m and $100m drug in 2015.
 






The previous poster concluded forest would have just two products and annualize about $350MM in sales in 2015 That assumption is wrong.

Here are my estimates of already approved products that Forest will have in 2015. Most of these numbers are pretty conservative; Bystolic and the antidepressant have a significant upside over these numbers, and the COPD drug may as well....2015 is still four years away!

Bystolic annualizing at appr $550MM
Savella annualizing at appr $300MM
Teflaro annualizing at appr $250MM
new antidepressant at appr $400MM
New COPD drug (total guess here) $300MM

That's $1.8BB, and that's a conservative prediction without any other product additions (Daxas, for example), any sales from non-promoted products, or any contract/royality payments. It ain't $4BB, but it's a heck of a lot more than $350MM.