Buyout is coming

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The third biggest position in Icahn’s portfolio is Forest Laboratories (NYSE: FRX). As of September 2012, Icahn owned more than 30.6 million shares in the company, accounting for 9.8% of his portfolio. What interests Icahn and investors is Forest’s new product portfolio and debt-free operation. As of September 2012, it had nearly $5.8 billion in total stockholders’ equity, more than $2.1 billion in cash, and no debt. It also had the deferred tax liabilities of $865 million. The market is valuing the company at 10.17x EV/EBITDA. A buyout could occur at 12.5X EV/EBITDA.
 












Perhaps all the trolls will start to shut up a bit about AZ.... I am not saying it will never happen buy out wise, however: The Guardian reports speculation that AstraZeneca (AZN) will bid for Shire (SHPG). That came right from Yahoo finance.
 






Anonymous said:
Perhaps all the trolls will start to shut up a bit about AZ.... I am not saying it will never happen buy out wise, however: The Guardian reports speculation that AstraZeneca (AZN) will bid for Shire (SHPG). That came right from Yahoo finance.
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AZN has also been speculated to be bidding for Amarin. We'll see what unfolds over the next few months.
 






From the dealmaker pipeline....

It's long been rumored that AstraZeneca would chase Forest Laboratories Inc. -- a prospect that analysts continue to advance.

"An acquisition seems pretty likely," said Damien Conover, an analyst at Morningstar Inc., in an interview Tuesday. "I think [CEO Pascal Soriot] wants to have a lot of options available as he does this strategic review, and by suspending share buybacks you're signaling a different use for that capital."
 






MSN reports....Another drugmaker that may soon find itself to be the subject of an increasing number of takeover rumors is Forest Laboratories (FRX -0.35%). The company has been mentioned as a potential target for AstraZeneca (AZN +0.12%), which is has a new CEO.
 






Message from AZ CEO this week....
We have a string of pearls strategy...And finally, as I said before we would suddenly be open to initiatives that are more, transformative deals. But I also wanted to tell you that the probability, the likelihood of this is lower, because there are not so many they have to make project sense, we have to be able to approach and that is approached and that’s deliver on something like this, many of those large acquisitions are difficult to execute and so there have to be operationally feasible and finally and importantly they have to create value of course. But we’re going to be open to all of this and I really believe that our base plan which is execute on what we have and complemented with business development can actually take us all the patent expiry the cliff, we are facing and then start growing again at some point in time in the not to distant future.

Forest is on the short list....
 






Insider in NY said:
In Forest corporate headquarters just before Christmas. Talked to a buddy of mine who works with the executive team and heard that AZ has been discussing "options" for Forest after the new year. While these rumors have been circulating for months, I also have heard similar information from a friend who works at AZ.

Here is why a buyout makes sense to me.

-AZ is scheduled to lose U.S. patent protection on drugs that will account for one-third of all its sales by 2019. Forest, on the other hand, has benefitted from both skill and luck to produce what I call one of the industry’s best pipeline hit rates over the past three years.
- Ex-Volvo and Ericsson exec Leif Johansson is coming on as AZ chairman later this year, and he has a background in M&A. The new CEO needs to buy products, as AZ's pipeline is dry and currently promoted drugs are long in the tooth. CEO will have the support of Johansson.
- Forest has 3 critical launches in 2012/2013 and doesn't have the horsepower to fully optimize any of them. AZ does. With a combined AZ/Forest sales force, Namenda XR, the newer antidepressants and a new antipsychotic would benefit immensely.
- There are 2-3B in cost savings synergies if the companies combine and a deal could be had for $12B. This equates to a net $9B deal with multiple new products, great pipeline, and broad array of synergistic promotion opportunities.
- There are synergies between the 2 companies in disease areas including depression, psychosis (2013), asthma, and respiratory.
- AZ recently announced that it is stopping it's stock buyback plan. This would infer that it will utilize the cash for M&A acitivity and deals under $15B are easily doable.
- Icahn is a significant shareholder of Forest and will continue to push for a sale. His track record of success is very good, with the most recent company to succomb being Amylin. He cannot be ignored by the executive management team.
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made me laugh---Forest has 3 critical launches in 2012/2013 and doesn't have the horsepower to fully optimize any of them. AZ does, AZ is a shit bag Nazi company and you all better hope that they do not buy you...see ya, and Forest having three launches, they have the worst marketing in history they could not launch ice in the desert
 






AstraZeneca looking at for possible takeover candidates, Bloomberg says
AstraZeneca (AZN) is looking is looking at companies like Amarin (AMRN) and Forest Labs (FRX) as possible takeover candidates, reports Bloomberg. The company's head of business development said it is in talks with other companies about possible deals as it faces increasing generic competition.
 






They wont bid for Shire its too expensive valued at $18 billion, they dont want to lose thier AA- credit status and would if they took over Shire. On the other hand if they took over Forest valued at $9.2 billion they could maintain thier credit rating, not to mention they would be overtaking a company whose therapeutic areas align with AZ's, so that the merge would not be a total transformation into additional uknown therapeutic areas.

Also pay attention folks, Ironwood partnered with AZ in China to sell Linzess. AZ already has thier hands around Linzess somewhat with thier launch in the China market, so it would be an easy transition to promote here in the US as well.

Forest was a good company, that got big because of Lexapro and Namenda, unfortunatley its a small company trying to play in the big pharma world and it doesn't have "big pharma" leaders who know how to navigate the industry on this level. It is extremely apparent in the decisions that are made all the way down to the field force, they are running the sales force like its 1990. They have a pipeline but have no clue how to deal with the market, AZ doesn't have a pipeline but knows how to deliver results in this environment and the brains and infastructure to do so. It should be a no brainer. Forest is in over thier head and AZ needs thier pipeline, and at a 9.2 billion dollar price tag, its a good buy.
 






Not to mention the underperforming numbers for Vybrid which was a panic purchase by forest, daliresp has pretty much peaked and is a bust, bystolic is declining, Linzess will not be a blockbuster, Tudorza will do ok, the numbers aren't too good now.

It's a sinking ship
 






Nothing to worry about....don't listen to all this scare tactic bs. Forest is solid and let the others panic. We got it going on with forest. Guarantee they want forest and forest holds the cards.
 






Hey I don't care either way.. This job is a 9-1pm cake making 110k including commissions
Ill take a severance as well why not

Anonymous said:
Nothing to worry about....don't listen to all this scare tactic bs. Forest is solid and let the others panic. We got it going on with forest. Guarantee they want forest and forest holds the cards.
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Amazing, FRX just hires on 80% of the contract force. Let me guess AZ buyout guy who has been saying the buyout is happening tomorrow since last October, your insider knowledge can shed light on this? Right?
 












Anonymous said:
Amazing, FRX just hires on 80% of the contract force. Let me guess AZ buyout guy who has been saying the buyout is happening tomorrow since last October, your insider knowledge can shed light on this? Right?
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hmmm....let's see, roll in 80-85% of contract reps making 50-52K. we can't make a damn call without stepping over or around one of our pod mates. So....after rolling in these low-balled base salary enterprise reps we'll just have a layoff which is completely random but just happens to cut loose all of the 'dead weight' tenured reps with much higher bases. At that point the fat is trimmed and a very lean steak is ready to be thrown on a bigger company's grille. and my name isn't carl icahn....
 






The only thing that is factual is that some little one who has been keeping this gloom and doom thread going since last fall is consistently wrong. You have been predicting buyouts and now layoffs. Could it all go down? Sure. But really, you don't know any more then I or the next person. In over 12 years with Forest the one factual thing I do know about all this is you have no idea. Pure speculation, and probably wishful thinking from someone who's manager has them about 2/3 deep in the disciplinary process and can't find a new job.
 






of course we all know nothing. but we can make educated guesses based on experience in the industry. and when icahn is knocking on the door its fair to speculate. and one thing that is absolutely true is that we have too many reps in a pod and rolling in pharmacare just adds to the madness.
 












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