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anonymous said:
Now that you mention it, I remember there was a lot of bad plastic surgery roaming the halls. Ran into a former colleague from a previous company, they were barely recognizable.
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Still bitching about Botox, plastic surgery and former colleagues? Get off the blogs and get your house in order. Never mind, too late for that.
 












anonymous said:
When his life sucks so bad, you can’t blame him for hanging out in his delusional blogosphere world making fun of people.
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I think the blogosphere has hit a nerve genius. You are posting on said delusional site for losers. With your type of logic on display, I am thoroughly convinced AbbVie management is active on CP.
 












The stock still has not recovered. What is going on? Humira still makes lots of money. So does Skyrizi and Rinvoq. So does Botox. Should we actually be worried. I alway believed this company was financially run very well. What is going on. Did they even screw this up?
 






anonymous said:
The stock still has not recovered. What is going on? Humira still makes lots of money. So does Skyrizi and Rinvoq. So does Botox. Should we actually be worried. I alway believed this company was financially run very well. What is going on. Did they even screw this up?
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In short yes, it’s very possible they partially failed to succeed independently of Abbott and without Humira. It was always going to be hard, but their R&D efforts weren’t good enough (hi Rova-T and many others).

One big issue is Rinvoq. Its black box makes ever hitting its “peak sales goals” unlikely. Even recently its peak was predicted above Skyrizi. It’s uncertain that their combined revenue will EVER match Humira. This means Humira revenue will not be replaced for a long time. That means shrinking profits. That means investors lose money. This is what’s going on with stock recently.

Also all the big companies have excellent immunology drugs and pipelines now. It’s a crowded space. This isn’t 2010.

Also Imbruvica now has many,
Many competitors and is falling fast. More than a few drugs are beating it head to head. Botox has generic competition AbbVie is trying to fight in court.

The Allergan neuro products have overperformed, but there is no pipeline. We do no research in psych or migraine. Nothing close to phase 3 except a low revenue Parkinson’s drug where they can’t figure out the pump.

Imagine what would have happened if the patent thicket hadn’t extended Humira IP for multiple years in US? I’m not sure Abbvie would still be around.

All of this is from public domain info of drug successes and failures over the past 10 years. I’m interested to see where it all goes.

The dividend won’t be touched though, so existing stock still has that value. Without it things would get UGLY in terms of share price.
 






anonymous said:
In short yes, it’s very possible they partially failed to succeed independently of Abbott and without Humira. It was always going to be hard, but their R&D efforts weren’t good enough (hi Rova-T and many others).

One big issue is Rinvoq. Its black box makes ever hitting its “peak sales goals” unlikely. Even recently its peak was predicted above Skyrizi. It’s uncertain that their combined revenue will EVER match Humira. This means Humira revenue will not be replaced for a long time. That means shrinking profits. That means investors lose money. This is what’s going on with stock recently.

Also all the big companies have excellent immunology drugs and pipelines now. It’s a crowded space. This isn’t 2010.

Also Imbruvica now has many,
Many competitors and is falling fast. More than a few drugs are beating it head to head. Botox has generic competition AbbVie is trying to fight in court.

The Allergan neuro products have overperformed, but there is no pipeline. We do no research in psych or migraine. Nothing close to phase 3 except a low revenue Parkinson’s drug where they can’t figure out the pump.

Imagine what would have happened if the patent thicket hadn’t extended Humira IP for multiple years in US? I’m not sure Abbvie would still be around.

All of this is from public domain info of drug successes and failures over the past 10 years. I’m interested to see where it all goes.

The dividend won’t be touched though, so existing stock still has that value. Without it things would get UGLY in terms of share price.
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Don't forget Vuity that came in hundreds of millions (if not billions over the next few years) under projection. That was supposed to support the entire Eye Care division for the next 6-7 years as all the glaucoma drops fall off patent. But unbelievable under performance with the drop and competitors set to come in RAPIDLY over the next 24 months are making it look like it's better to write it off and kill the salesforce to try and save money.
 






anonymous said:
Don't forget Vuity that came in hundreds of millions (if not billions over the next few years) under projection. That was supposed to support the entire Eye Care division for the next 6-7 years as all the glaucoma drops fall off patent. But unbelievable under performance with the drop and competitors set to come in RAPIDLY over the next 24 months are making it look like it's better to write it off and kill the salesforce to try and save money.
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Massive cuts have to be under discussion.

Day of Q2 earnings would make a lot of sense if they feel the need to defend the stock price. Market cap is tanking.
 






anonymous said:
In short yes, it’s very possible they partially failed to succeed independently of Abbott and without Humira. It was always going to be hard, but their R&D efforts weren’t good enough (hi Rova-T and many others).

One big issue is Rinvoq. Its black box makes ever hitting its “peak sales goals” unlikely. Even recently its peak was predicted above Skyrizi. It’s uncertain that their combined revenue will EVER match Humira. This means Humira revenue will not be replaced for a long time. That means shrinking profits. That means investors lose money. This is what’s going on with stock recently.

Also all the big companies have excellent immunology drugs and pipelines now. It’s a crowded space. This isn’t 2010.

Also Imbruvica now has many,
Many competitors and is falling fast. More than a few drugs are beating it head to head. Botox has generic competition AbbVie is trying to fight in court.

The Allergan neuro products have overperformed, but there is no pipeline. We do no research in psych or migraine. Nothing close to phase 3 except a low revenue Parkinson’s drug where they can’t figure out the pump.

Imagine what would have happened if the patent thicket hadn’t extended Humira IP for multiple years in US? I’m not sure Abbvie would still be around.

All of this is from public domain info of drug successes and failures over the past 10 years. I’m interested to see where it all goes.

The dividend won’t be touched though, so existing stock still has that value. Without it things would get UGLY in terms of share price.
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This was a very good analysis and spot on.
 


















anonymous said:
it will be a long slow ride to the bottom, chinese water torture
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Punctuated by 10 point drops after earning calls.

I wonder if management has a clear idea of where the bottom actually is. Like not what they tell the street or the board, but what they themselves predict, if only when they are falling asleep at night.
 






anonymous said:
Punctuated by 10 point drops after earning calls.

I wonder if management has a clear idea of where the bottom actually is. Like not what they tell the street or the board, but what they themselves predict, if only when they are falling asleep at night.
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Hard to say, but other companies who went over much smaller patent cliffs followed by phase 3 failures bottomed out at less than 50% of peak
 






Agree, hard to say. But an LOE like Humira is unprecedented. The lack of productivity after investing Humira profits is egregious. The unwillingness of AbbVie management to hold anyone of consequence accountable. This may get a lot worse.
 












anonymous said:
Agree, hard to say. But an LOE like Humira is unprecedented. The lack of productivity after investing Humira profits is egregious. The unwillingness of AbbVie management to hold anyone of consequence accountable. This may get a lot worse.
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Anyone of consequence left and/or retired.

Abbott leftovers can enjoy this one.
 


















So how long before coherus goes belly up or bought out? Odd that a company with a market cap of 350 million can wipe out billions from another company. Looks like they might be fishing for a buyer soon
 






It just keeps getting worse. This humira thing is bad. They really aren’t equipped for tests like this. The siloed thinking, the outdated ways of doing things, the resistance to change. Humira saved the day for a long time and now may spell the end.
 






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