AZ News from the Street 2018

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anonymous said:
There are many political thoughts on this thread lately.

These thoughts showing strong polarization and division in this country are not completely irrelevant to the stock market valuations that are the topic of this thread, including the AZ stock value.

Things like still little understood effects of new tax law changes, more potential government shutdowns over various contentious issues, new tariffs being levied on international trade, likely raises in interest rates coming to counteract the now rapidly falling dollar, rising gasoline prices, which are themselves strongly tied to the falling dollar value, as oil is still largely traded in dollars, evidence of severe froth in speculation markets, as is seen with things like bitcoin, as well as potentially more high level administration resignations and potentially additional indictments of high level administration officials, can all have strong effects on consumer confidence and investment decisions. Many of these newly developing forces will raise prices for the average consumers for necessities and take cash away from more discretionary parts of the economy. The change in market confidence may occur suddenly as has often occurred in the past endings of wild bull markets. Pharmaceutical stocks like AZ often do relatively better in that environment, as health treatments are considered more non-discretionary. Sectors like technology might fare more poorly.

We may now soon be leaving the long time comfort zone of low interest rates, low market volatility, high confidence levels, and the booming bull market, especially if some of these looming threats occur anytime on the short term. The bull market may still last a while longer, but all bull markets eventually come to an end. When exactly that will happen is still anyone's guess, but it will happen eventually. Opinions will vary, but the market will decide in the end what are the proper stock valuations for AZ and other assets.
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The only threat to the stock market greater than a war with N. Korea is if the Democrats win back the house and senate. Remember the idiot from NY Times that said the stock market would collapse if Trump was elected? Remember when Pelosi said that Trump's tax cuts would be an apocalypse? Or when Obama made fun of Trump's claims that he could bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S. How is that working out?
 




AZ COPD clinical trial hits the targets. The GSK analogue is already approved and on the market, but AZ, once its product is approved for the market should get some market share. Approval is still a year or two away though.



Reuters) - AstraZeneca (AZN.L) said an inhaler for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) delivered improved lung function in a late stage trial that could challenge GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK.L) new three-in-one inhaler.

The inhaler, PT010, showed "statistically significant" improvement in eight of nine main lung function goals in patients with moderate to very severe COPD, the company said on Friday.

AstraZeneca said patients in the trial were given two inhalations twice a day of PT010, which is a single inhaler, fixed-dose triple combination therapy.

There were no unexpected safety or tolerability signals for PT010 identified in the 24-week trial, it added.

GSK's Trelegy Ellipta was the first once-daily triple medicine for COPD to market, putting Britain's biggest drugmaker ahead of rivals such as AstraZeneca and Novartis (NOVN.S).

GSK's inhaler, which it developed with Innoviva (INVA.O), has already been approved for sale in the United States and Europe.

"GSK is already on the market with its Trelegy Ellipta product so is well ahead, nevertheless PT010 should still find a place in the market," Liberum analysts said in a client note, adding the inhaler was not a critical product for AstraZeneca.

AstraZeneca said it anticipated making regulatory submissions in Japan and China in the second half of this year, followed by possibly submitting it in the United States and Europe next year.
 




Latest results in, guidance predicts slow return to growth:

AstraZeneca flags return to drug growth in 2018, China shines

February 2, 2018

By Ben Hirschler

LONDON (Reuters) - AstraZeneca (AZN.L) expects a return to drug sales growth in 2018 as new medicines win market share and the group puts patent losses behind it, although the need to invest in launches will weigh on profit this year.

AstraZeneca has suffered the industry's biggest patent cliff since 2012, wiping out more than half of its sales, but Chief Executive Pascal Soriot said it was turning a corner and spending as a proportion of sales would reduce by 2019-20.

After a 5 percent fall in 2017, the group expects drug sales this year to grow at a low single-figure percentage rate, driven by new treatments for cancer, in particular, and buoyed by 20 percent-plus sales growth in China.

"We have a pipeline that is over-sized relative to the current size of our company," Soriot said.

"That's a good thing because over the next two or three years we are going to be able to drive a very strong growth rate - but of course it creates a need to resource those launches."

The need to invest heavily in promoting new medicines will hold back profits this year, with the company predicting core earnings per share (EPS) of $3.30 to $3.50 - below the Thomson Reuters consensus of $3.61.

The weak profit guidance initially pushed the shares lower before they rallied to stand 2.7 percent higher by 1550 GMT after Soriot's upbeat comments on long-term profitability.

"While the EPS guidance range suggests modest downside to consensus, this clearly reflects plans to invest more aggressively behind new launches, which investors should be comfortable with," said Deutsche Bank analyst Richard Parkes.

EXTERNALISATION DEALS

Revenue last year was boosted by a bumper haul of "externalisation" deals, involving asset sales and collaborations with other companies, which some analysts have criticised for flattering results.

Such deals contributed $2.3 billion in 2017 out of total revenue of $22.5 billion, but AstraZeneca said they had peaked and would decline in 2018.

AstraZeneca has had some notable new product successes recently, with oncology pills Tagrisso and Lynparza both doing well and progress in other areas, including novel treatments for lung disorders.

Its heart drug Brilinta and Farxiga for diabetes have also both just breached the $1 billion annual sales mark, while its business in China is outgrowing rivals.

AstraZeneca aims to step up its China push through two new deals with Chinese tech giants Alibaba (BABA.N) and Tencent <0700.HK> announced on Friday, designed to optimise drug use and fight counterfeit medicines.

Still, the pace of its turnaround remains uncertain pending further clinical trial read-outs in the multibillion-dollar cancer immunotherapy market, where AstraZeneca's Imfinzi is going head to head with rival drugs from Merck & Co (MRK.N), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.N) and Roche (ROG.S).

"The very successful launch in the coming months of Imfinzi in lung cancer is crucial if AstraZeneca is going to make up lost ground," said Trinity Delta analyst Mick Cooper.

AstraZeneca suffered the biggest ever daily fall in its shares last July, following disappointing initial results from a lung cancer trial dubbed Mystic. Since then the shares have rallied, helped by good news from two other studies.

Further data from the Mystic trial is due in the first half of this year.

Fourth-quarter core EPS, which excludes some items, increased 7 percent to $1.30 cents on revenue of $5.78 billion, helped by one-off tax gains. Analysts, on average, had forecast earnings of 84 cents on revenue of $5.46 billion.
 




King of its class?

AstraZeneca's Lynparza Now 'King' Of Its Class — Triumphing Over Tesaro
ALLISON GATLIN
10:21 AM ET


AstraZeneca's (AZN) Lynparza is now "king" of its realm in cancer treatments — beating out rival Tesaro (TSRO) — an analyst said Friday after the U.K.-based drugmaker reported sales of the cancer drug that crushed expectations.

During the fourth quarter, AstraZeneca reported $54 million in U.S. sales of Lynparza, smashing the consensus view for $39 million, RBC analyst Kennen MacKay said in a note to clients. That beat Tesaro's guidance for $40 million to $50 million in sales of rival Zejula.

Lynparza, Zejula and Clovis Oncology's (CLVS) Rubraca all belong to a class of medicine called PARP inhibitors which are being used to treat ovarian cancer but have some promise also in breast, prostate and other cancers.

This is the second straight quarter of strong U.S. Lynparza sales following the August approval as a second maintenance therapy in a broad group of ovarian cancer patients, MacKay said. U.S. Lynparza sales have now more than doubled since that approval.

"We view this strong uptake as a negative competitive threat for Tesaro, and potentially indicative that Lynparza has become the preferred agent in the second-line maintenance setting," he said.

AstraZeneca reported $100 million in global Lynparza sales for the quarter. That puts it on a run rate for $400 million, MacKay said. Growth is also expected from expansion as a second-line ovarian cancer maintenance therapy in Europe and as treatment for some breast cancer patients in the U.S.

"We view this as a favorable sign for the size of the class, but anticipate weakness in Tesaro shares on this disclosure given competitive pressure and recent Tesaro guidance implying slowing Zejula sales growth into the fourth quarter," he said.

In early trading on the stock market today, AstraZeneca lifted 1.6%, near 35.70. Tesaro dipped 1.6%, near 62.40. Clovis lost a fraction, near 59.

For the fourth quarter, AstraZeneca reported core earnings of $1.30 per share, beating the consensus for 84 cents per share, Leerink analyst Seamus Fernandez said in a note to clients. Core earnings grew 7%.

Total revenue of $5.78 billion grew 3% and topped the consensus of analysts polled by Zacks Investment Research for $5.59 billion. Fernandez lists another consensus figure which put sales at $5.48 billion. Product sales were $300 million north of expectations.

AstraZeneca guided to core earnings of $3.30-$3.50 per share and a low single-digit percentage increase in product sales for 2018, on a constant currency basis.
 








AZ is actually one of the very few stocks that is up today during this day of market carnage. Poor AZ, they often have their good news on very bad days in the market it seems.

This overheated and over stimulated with new debt economy (unpaid for massive tax cuts for corporations) implemented at the very tippy top of the economic cycle, when additional stimulus is least effective, is not going to give us real growth, just a weaker dollar, higher inflation, and higher interest rates, which will also be giving us higher costs for servicing the massive new debt, squeezing out everything else that was actually useful. Who wants those? The market doesn't seem to want it now.

An end of a bull market sign is for the market to start going down on "good news" due to fears of interest rate hikes and inflation. That appears to be the new reality going forward. Remember history, it tends to repeat itself.
 




anonymous said:
AZ is actually one of the very few stocks that is up today during this day of market carnage. Poor AZ, they often have their good news on very bad days in the market it seems.

This overheated and over stimulated with new debt economy (unpaid for massive tax cuts for corporations) implemented at the very tippy top of the economic cycle, when additional stimulus is least effective, is not going to give us real growth, just a weaker dollar, higher inflation, and higher interest rates, which will also be giving us higher costs for servicing the massive new debt, squeezing out everything else that was actually useful. Who wants those? The market doesn't seem to want it now.

An end of a bull market sign is for the market to start going down on "good news" due to fears of interest rate hikes and inflation. That appears to be the new reality going forward. Remember history, it tends to repeat itself.
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Hey Comrade, better check your facts. Lowest unemployment in 40 years, finally wages are going up, millions getting bonuses and increases in the contributions to their 401K, highest increase in first time home ownership in history, billions coming back into our country and Chrysler leaving Mexico and coming back to Detroit. US on path to be the leader in world energy production. And what is the Democrat's answer? Back to what Obama called the new normal, 1% GDP and part time jobs with zero benefits and paying a fine for not being able to afford to buy a shit insurance policy.
 




I get the feeling that you may not have an open mind on these business issues. Don't be a political ideologue. That will not get you any where in the markets.

This discussion is only about business issues not politics.

The unemployment going down and the wages going up, the so called "good news" I mentioned, is exactly what stock market people fear the most. An overheating economy leading to inflation and higher interest rates etc. Higher interest rates are historically negative for stock prices in most cases.

Additionally, many business have debt that they have been servicing with nearly free money the past few years. That can have a negative effect on businesses that carry debt to operate. Those days may be coming to an end. Higher interest rates also have very negative effects on certain important sectors of the economy that tend to rely on consumers taking on debt, such as automobiles and housing.

Higher interest rates are where bull markets go to die.
 




anonymous said:
I get the feeling that you may not have an open mind on these business issues. Don't be a political ideologue. That will not get you any where in the markets.

This discussion is only about business issues not politics.

The unemployment going down and the wages going up, the so called "good news" I mentioned, is exactly what stock market people fear the most. An overheating economy leading to inflation and higher interest rates etc. Higher interest rates are historically negative for stock prices in most cases.

Additionally, many business have debt that they have been servicing with nearly free money the past few years. That can have a negative effect on businesses that carry debt to operate. Those days may be coming to an end. Higher interest rates also have very negative effects on certain important sectors of the economy that tend to rely on consumers taking on debt, such as automobiles and housing.

Higher interest rates are where bull markets go to die.
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Agreed that poster #50 is a low IQ loser.

But all you business economics lesson isn’t much help with Astra’s future.

So a bear market is happening. The best way to save cash is layoffs, lots of US companies have recently. Astra should be next.
 




anonymous said:
Agreed that poster #50 is a low IQ loser.

But all you business economics lesson isn’t much help with Astra’s future.

So a bear market is happening. The best way to save cash is layoffs, lots of US companies have recently. Astra should be next.
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Pharma just happens to be past its prime growth years when there was little price pressure and you could increase sales by simply increasing drug prices every year. Pharma is old news in a high tech world. Biotech is where the future is and it won't rely on massive sales forces chasing Physicians around to gather sample signatures. Much smaller targeted sales forces resembling instrument sales today, highly educated in the sciences and paid for actually selling something. The traditional pharma sales role will go the way of 8 track tape players and vcrs.
 




Astra is essentially trying to transition to a Biotech like structure. This is especially so in the Oncology sector. Biotech companies enjoy much higher p/e multiples than traditional Pharma does. It is thought to be more difficult for the entry of competition with Me Too and generic drug copies. That will probably change when the opportunity becomes vast. Pricing is typically better on these types of drugs, since they are usually directed at life or death diseases, as opposed to the traditional pharma model of condition maintenance like is the case with statins and blood pressure meds etc.
 




Wow! DOW down another 1000 points just today.

Even AZ with its very positive news last week is down now too.

This is more negative volatility than the market has seen in several years now. All of the market gains of approximately the last year are now completely gone. Yes, interest rates are worrisome, but this seems to be more than just that, more of a general lack of confidence setting in now. Markets generally predict moves in the main street economy about six months ahead of time. Could this be a recession signal being sent? The breaking of a bubble? Or of Stagflation (no growth with inflation) like was seen in the late seventies and early eighties? Time will tell, but something seems amiss.
 




The market is definitely sending us a message now that something bad is about to happen and soon. It could be any number of things, as there are many looming financial issues on the horizon, like renewing the government spending authorization again and extending the maximum debt limit are just two for instance, but what is clear is that the apparatus to deal with any type of financial crisis is just not functional right now and everyone knows it.
 








Oncology area competition is heating up:

Bristol-Myers surges 5.6% on advanced lung cancer trial results, Q4 earnings

Published: Feb 5, 2018 7:24 a.m. ET
By Emma Court

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. BMY, -1.85% shares surged 5.6% in premarket trade on Monday after the company reported positive results for its Opdivo and Yervoy cancer drug combination in a late-stage clinical trial, along with fourth-quarter profit and revenue beats. In the phase 3 trial, the two-drug combination improved progression-free survival in patients with advanced lung cancer as compared with chemotherapy. The trial will continue because an interim analysis looking at overall survival looked promising. Advanced lung cancer in a competitive space, and rival Merck & Co. MRK, -2.15% recently reported positive results as well. Merck shares dropped 1.6% in premarket trade, while Astrazeneca AZN, -1.33% another rival, had shares fall 1.5%. Also on Monday, Bristol-Myers reported a loss of $2.33 billion, or a loss of $1.42 per share, after earnings of $894 million, or 53 cents per share in the year-earlier period. Adjusted earnings-per-share were 68 cents, compared with the FactSet consensus of 67 cents. The results include "the significant transitional impact" of the U.S.'s corporate tax overhaul, including a one-time $2.9 billion charge in the fourth-quarter, Bristol-Myers said. Revenue rose to $5.45 billion from $5.24 billion, compared with the FactSet consensus of $5.35 billion. Sales of Opdivo, Eliquis, Sprycel and the company's Sustiva franchise came in above the FactSet consensus, while sales of Orencia, Yervoy, Empliciti, its Hepatitis C franchise, Baraclude and Reyataz came in below consensus. The company expects 2018 adjusted EPS of $3.15 to $3.30, compared with the FactSet consensus of $3.23, and worldwide revenue increases in the low- to mid-single digits. Bristol-Myers shares have lifted 2% over the last three months, compared with a 6.7% rise in the S&P 500 SPX, -1.49% and a 8.4% rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.45%
 












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