Argos Therapeutics

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Attention INVESTMENT community - this JUST IN - Argos CANNOT have final data from PIVOTAL study until 2018 or beyond if POSITIVE. If NEGATIVE, the study MAY read out by mid-2017 as the company has been sharing. Perhaps they don't understand what a positive survival study readout will take from a timing perspective. With the other post on here indicating they are just getting to 50% of data or events from the study, a READOUT in 1st part of 2017 would be DISASTER.

Stock RUN UP is false and supported only by 4-5 inside investment firms from recent private placement (oh yes and Zacks.com investment research - the IVY league of investment advice).

Steer the $$$ elsewhere and GET OUT if you're IN. Now's the TIME!!
 












FYI for other investors who peruse this site for intelligence tidbits - just spoke to a few folks very familiar with Argos and their kidney cancer study. Impression is that readout is a long ways off and thus far investigators are not seeing anything remarkable relative to difference in treatment arms, albeit they are blinded to total dataset.

Be careful as the stock run up is great, but this balloon is going to burst around ASCO. That's when their next interim data review will be and no news expected with no clear signal on the efficacy or futility front from the folks with "knowledge".
 






Wow!! A whopping 18 employees released at Argos to save 2MM, which equates to 2 weeks of runway based upon their cash burn rate the past 2 years. Negligible difference to their bottom line.

Interesting how the stock run up coincides with their COO retiring. Awfully fishy, as the SEC filings suggest at least 1 person is cashing out with a large profit on options. The first millionaire is born from the epic failure of this company over the last 2 decades.

Buyers beware. Stock should fall precipitously now that the "false" run up has ended with this bit of reality that the company is struggling to reduce burn rate and is now in force reduction mode to extend the runway by a few weeks to perhaps a month at best.

The other posts on here have indicated the kidney cancer study will be NEGATIVE if it reads out too early in 2017. This company is ready to fall back to reality which is $2 per share by end of 2016!!!
 












Don't read too much into our recent layoffs. We will be hiring many more folks than released to address our future manufacturing needs. Glad our beloved COO is going out a rich man thanks to the stock run up. Wish the rest of the employees were as lucky.
 






Back to reality for that extremely rude, under-informed insider who was posting out here. Seems like the public investors have figured out your phony scheme to run up the stock. See you at $4 a share soon. No news isn't necessarily good news for Argos and funny thing is ... your "books" continue to indicate a burn rate of 4-5MM monthly. That means the 1st tranche of your recent "up to" financing will be exhausted by summer 2016, the next 20 will be exhausted prior to YE and then the final "up to" amount will be burned through by early 2Q 2017. Without data then (nobody investing in ARGS at present wants the phase 3 study to readout in early 2017 - it will be negative) ... whatcha gonna do smarty pants?
 






Wow - stock has plummeted in less than a week to the high $4s. The previous post was spot on. Must be an investor or part of the investment community that is in the "know".

Perhaps the SEC ought to investigate the company for the false stock price run up over the past 1-2 months, that preceded the exit or "early retirement" of one of the company's executives. Guessing there were significant gains made by that one individual last week prior to the stock plummet, in exchange for an agreement to "retire". Smells fishy for sure ...
 






You are correct - definitely suspicious. Per SEC filings, former COO stood to exercise approx. 140,000 shares after resigning effective 4/22. Based upon stock price and the high volume that ensued, sure bet there was a hefty profit of several hundred thousand dollars. Only question now is when does the SEC investigate the stock run up just prior to the layoffs. Stock has fallen dramatically ever since. Interesting observation indeed!
 






Beware - Argos is the next Newlink Genetics. Similar to Newlink, Argos is promising readout from their kidney cancer study in early 2017. When the readout doesn't occur, they will try to spin it and indicate that the events (eg., deaths) on study have occurred less frequently and will try to attribute to the effect of their treatment. In reality, the results from their study, if positive will take much longer to understand. They will keep spinning lack of results, lack of final data until they have it ... investors better hope they don't pull the same shenanigans as Newlink.

Caution is that the vast majority of small biotech companies raise false hopes around study expectations, both potential results and timing. Most fail to ever deliver ... Similar to alganpantucel-L, AGS-003 is highly unproven and nobody has confirmed how this product works.

Be careful or you may get burned by this company's "spin" from the few people who can make millions even with a failed platform.
 






Great comparison to Newlink but not as concerning as the potential similarities between IMA-901 and AGS-003. Different approaches but both products demonstrated T-cell response to clinical outcomes in uncontrolled phase 2 studies in kidney cancer. So far, IMA-901 failed to achieve a similar outcome in phase 3 and in fact reported a lack of T-cell response and correlation to any clinical outcome in the phase 3 kidney cancer study which was presented by Dr. Rini of the Cleveland Clinic last September at the ESMO conference. See link here for details:

http://immatics.com/immatics-announ...py-with-sunitinib-for-advancedmetastatic-rcc/

Why should investors like me be concerned about a company like Argos? Elementary / simple indeed. Nobody else (except for Argos employees and execs) has corroborated the link between a T-cell response and clinical outcomes with AGS-003. While their phase 2 results could be "real", they only observed this effect in 15 or 16 patients. The "final" IMA-901 story doesn't provide a whole lot of confidence that a company observed correlation between T-cells and outcomes from an uncontrolled phase 2 study will yield any improvements in survival in a much larger, randomized and well-controlled phase 3 study.

Prior post nailed it - be careful with Argos, whether you compare them to Newlink or Immatics. Unprecedented territory but lots or prior failed experiences when these types of small phase 2 observations do not translate in larger phase 3 studies. Unfortunate, but high risk when you place these types of bets on unproven technology. Hopefully Argos will prove the skeptic in me wrong. Time will tell ...
 






Wow - thanks for the intelligence on IMA-901. I had not been following. Found the following excerpt following Dr. Rini's presentation at ESMO last fall:

"Median overall survival was 33.1 months for the experimental arm vs not yet reached for sunitinib alone (P = .08). When survival was analyzed according to risk level, the curves overlapped for favorable-risk patients and favored the control arm in the intermediate-risk group. Progression-free survival was similar in both arms, about 15 months by central review.
Although IMA901-specific CD8 T-cell responses were observed with the vaccine, there was no clear association between survival and observed immune response. "This is another example of a huge difference between our goals with tumor vaccines and what actually happens. Many trials in tumor vaccines fail,” said Dr. Melero, who was formal discussant for the trial. “Many steps are needed to develop therapeutic vaccines. He added, "The data from phase II were not replicated. Those patients who mounted an immune response did not do better.”

This trial enrolled a better group of patients who probably should do better on immunotherapy. Clearly they saw no impact of T-cell spikes and correlation to survival. In fact, it appears as though survival was equal with one group and better for the sunitinib alone arm in the intermediate risk patients.

The lack of control in phase 2 and lack of an external group validating the correlation between T-cell response and outcomes is unnerving.

Time to sell ARGS while I still have equity. Appears as though there is a high probability AGS-003 will follow suit with IMA-901 and disappoint in p3. In fact, there has never been a vaccine based approach that has succeeded in p3 in kidney cancer, melanoma, etc. I'm going to place my bets on PD-1 and other approaches that simply rev up the immune system.
 






I wish I could have multiple personalities like the poster of this thread. I could pat myself on the back and argue with myself all day. You really need to try to make some friends. It might make the voices in your head go away or at least quiet.

Note: When trying to pretend to be different people, you should change your writing style. You give your self away in the first sentence of every post.
 






Great point. However, whether it's one or multiple people posting here, there is a consistent real theme and accurate depiction of the challenges that lay ahead of Argos. As an inside employee who is simply trying to profit from an unknown platform with many more questions than answers - you should sit on the sideline and take it all in and make inroads internally to right the ship brother.
 






Well stated. Based upon the recent transcript, it's clear that if their kidney study is only around 50% of events and this comes 12 months or so after they reportedly were around 25% of events ... how is this trial going to "read" out 1st half of 2017?

For the internal goober who keeps interrupting these great posts - please explain how you get to 100% of events in another 12 months without having a negative study.

Prediction - if Argos' kidney study is negative, it will read out (futility) in 1st half of 2017. If it's positive, it will read out no sooner than early 2018. Hmmm, $4mm burn per month means they'll simply need at least a total of closer to 90MM just to get to data. One can only ponder how much will be needed to get to successful BLA filing and review ... but if the data are positive, that will be easy.
 






Hey Inside Employee - how do you get to 100% of events and final data by this time next year if you anticipate only being at 50% of events / data for your study? A biostats expert indicated this is impossible unless your study is negative.

The investment community needs the TRUTH not your continued BS.
 












No way Argos has final data in early 2017. Approvals for therapy that actually has now been proven to extend survival in the second and third lines of treatment for kidney cancer (eg., Opdivo - Bristol and now Lenvima - Eisai), indicate that standard of care has gotten better. Noting these recent approvals, that means a positive survival benefit in first line treatment will take longer than projected.

Here's the news on Lenvima. Argos should stop overpromising and should simply figure out how to get to final data in 2018.

http://www.pharmatimes.com/Article/...ima_approved_in_the_US_for_kidney_cancer.aspx
 






Hey Mr. Inside C Level Employee - Need you to answer the following question for all of us investors ...

How do you get to 100% of events and final data by this time next year if you anticipate only being at 50% of events / data for your study? This outcome would only deliver a NEGATIVE trial outcome per a biostats expert.

Your turn to start telling the truth and stopping the perpetual BS around data timing. The investment community and SEC require you to be truthful.

Thanks Mr. Smarty Pants Argos Employee.
 






Hmmm .... where did Mr. Argos Employee go? Thought he would be kind enough to answer everyone's question regarding their "data timing" situation. In case he missed the opportunity, I thought I'd poke Mr. Smarty Pants once again. Here goes Mr. Omniscient:

How do you get to 100% of events and final data by this time next year if you anticipate only being at 50% of events / data for your study? Your CEO indicated you may be around 50% with the upcoming data review (eg., ASCO 2016). Thus, if results are final in early 2017, this strongly suggests the outcome to your kidney study will be NEGATIVE (eg., futile regarding the ability to achieve your target survival improvement).

You should check with a biostats expert. Then, you should start telling the truth and refrain from spreading the continuous layer of BS around data timing. We all know you will run out of current dollars prior to data readout, so just be truthful. The investment community and SEC actually require you to be truthful as a publicly traded company.

Come out from hiding and simply tell the truth Mr. Smarty Pants.
 






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