Amgen wins ESI

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Anonymous said:
Doubtful. What you are hearing is probably from some fearful Amgen rep or someone who didn't get selected to work for REGN.
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Why do you think Amgen folks want to work here? I work at REGN. Amgen has all the niecesary experience to launch a self injectable and they have worlds of launch experience that were wildly successful. REGN is going to fall flat on their face with Alirocumab. Not enough lead time of one month to make any dent in the launch of the PCSK9. I hope they do as I have a signficant amount of REGN stock but it ain't so.
 






Anonymous said:
Why do you think Amgen folks want to work here? I work at REGN. Amgen has all the niecesary experience to launch a self injectable and they have worlds of launch experience that were wildly successful. REGN is going to fall flat on their face with Alirocumab. Not enough lead time of one month to make any dent in the launch of the PCSK9. I hope they do as I have a signficant amount of REGN stock but it ain't so.
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The reps they are hiring for evo are fixed duration employees with little to no experience. Knock yourself out. You know nothing.
 






























It's obviously too early to tell who will win this. What is more significant is that ESI, Caremark/CVS and Catamaran (or whatever they will call themselves moving forward) now control 1B (that's Billion with a B) prescriptions combined in the US. All three will likely go the same route that they went with the recent HEP C market where they pitted AbbVie against Gilead. Winner take all. If you happen to be on the wrong side of that decision, oh well. Glad I am not in this space because of that (I mean the Pharma/Bio space) It will be interesting to watch as an outsider but it may get really nerve racking for you folks on the ground. I hope you are with companies that play to win. This is only one of the market overtones that make getting into this market "iffy" as a career decision. From a financial standpoint you will be joining either AMGN or REGN at a time when their stocks have soared in anticipation of these approvals. Most of the appreciation for the potential of these products is already "baked in". AMGN seems to be more reasonably priced than REGN based on a P/E and PEG analysis. At nearly 150X ttm earnings REGN is way above the reasonable value band. If one thing goes not according to plan this stock could tank and tank quickly. Be reasonable with your expectations about what that will mean for the value of your options/RSUs. Neither stock is going to go up significantly from here based on PCSK9. These stocks are in the middle of the "buy on rumor, sell on fact" paradigm. The buying on rumor has already happened. That leaves Selling on fact. Don't buy AMGN at this price and short selling REGN at this price looks attractive. Good luck!
 












Always respond with an insult when you have no real perspective. New flash "genius", that JUST HAPPENED (in Feb). Being the genius you are, I'm sure you realize that a major conversion like that does not happen over night. Let's look in a year to see what has happened with NEW Patients. That is where the battle will be fought. It doesn't happen overnight in an ESTABLISHED market. THIS (PCSK9) is NOT an established market. Are you keeping up with this so far genius? The Big Three will be on top of this market from jump street. This market will develop very differently because of that. The impact of a win or loss with the Big 3 in this market will express very differently in this market and even more important, because of the Big 3 getting involved early, the "therapeutic substitution" concept, that has been haunting the overall market for years, will be even more in play. Major breakthrough duplicate drugs, launching simultaneously, as first in the market offerings. The dynamic here is WAY different. But you know that, because you are a genius.
 






Always reply with an insult when you have no real perspective. OK, listen up "genius". The conversion announcement from ESI regarding the AbbVie/Gilead HepC issues, just happened in Feb. Do you really think they could have converted all of those patients and all of that business by now? You are looking at the wrong metric. Let's look back at this in Feb 2016 and see what the landscape looks like. Let's particularly look at new Rxs to see how many went to Abbvie vs GILD. A major conversion/therapeutic substitution like this takes a lot of time to execute. You can't compare that situation with this one. That conversion is happening mid stream in an already developed market. THIS is different. There is no established PCSK9 market and the "Big 3" will have the opportunity to get in front of this. So much so that their decisions may even be made and announced before one PSCK9 script is filled. Are you following this? WAY different scenario in the way it will play out vs HepC. As interesting is that you have 2 products being PDUFA'd about a month apart meaning fierce competition right out of the blocks. Think it through and then you can apologize for calling me an f'ing idiot.
 






Look at the NBRx (new to brand prescriptions) since the Express Scripts decision. Gilead is winning that battle by huge numbers over Amgen. It will be competitive, and contracting/discounting will be important, but these decisions don't impact injectables in the same manner in which they impact the pill market.
 






I think you meant to say Abbive and not Amgen since that is an Abbvie/Gilead fight in that space. Again, the conversion will not happen overnight. Gilead is not knocked out all together just second to Abbvie. Who knows how long GILD will let this situation stand. If it really doesn't hurt them maybe they hold pat. BUT the big DIFFERENCE here is that is an established market, one where ESI has to face facts and be realistic in what they can actually effect. The PCSK9 will be different. ESI and the others will pick one first line, one step edit second line and will be able to enforce this from Day 1. Whoever loses this/these contracts will automatically be relegated to second fiddle. I can't say/put it any clearer. Let's see what happens. I am not an "I told you so" person. In fact, I hate that. Moreover, as a shareholder of both companies, I am trying to make a decision on what to do. Both could win, both could lose, both could split decision (among the 3). My instinct here is to hold AMGN and sell REGN. I am long both stocks. (I still own AMGN shares from when I worked there in the late 80s/early 90s). Likewise, I have been in REGN for 4 years so I am way up there too. I just see more downside for REGN shares if they lose one or more of these contracts since the stock is trading at nearly 150X earnings vs AMGNs' roughly 22X. Great chatting with you though, even if you called me a f'ing idiot. Have a great weekend
 






And you proved you're a fucking moron! Abbv is a pimple on the ass in hep c because it's a inferior product! You must be a nam or a a complete fucking r*****. 4.6 billion vs 130 million in the USA, I don't know where you sell but ESI ceo is failing miserably. Managed healthcare only matters when you have multiple equal products.
 






Anonymous said:
And you proved you're a fucking moron! Abbv is a pimple on the ass in hep c because it's a inferior product! You must be a nam or a a complete fucking r*****. 4.6 billion vs 130 million in the USA, I don't know where you sell but ESI ceo is failing miserably. Managed healthcare only matters when you have multiple equal products.
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You just proved my point genius. Your own words above are what will make the Big 3 influence hugely significant in this market. Do you see it, genius, well do you? Here it is in case you can't: Your words! "Managed healthcare only matters when you have multiple equal products". Regardless of what ends up happening in the Hep C market, as I have been saying, THIS MARKET WILL BE DIFFERENT. You will have two products with very similar profiles, launching in a new space, where there are currently NO UNITS. Are you tracking yet, genius? The Big 3 will get in front of this before the customer loyalty and base use is established. I'll be back in 6 months when this plays out for your apology. In the mean time good luck!
 


















Esi is working out great for abbvie, pharmacies are returning expired vpak samples. Esi is a worthless deal because physicians can find their way around preferred status. In our case less injections, but then again only a shit rep sells on insurance.
 












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