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AbbVie Takes Hit After Expectations for Hepatitis C Treatment Disappoint

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Anonymous

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From WSJ...

Most pharmaceutical-company investors would be thrilled at the prospect of a new drug reaching annual sales of $2 billion to $3 billion. But the hit AbbVie Inc. shares took Friday shows how high expectations have become for new hepatitis C drugs.

AbbVie Inc. Chief Executive Richard Gonzalez said Friday he expects the company’s new hepatitis C treatment, Viekira Pak, to be selling at an annualized clip of more than $3 billion by the end of 2015. “We believe we have potential to capture a meaningful share” of the hepatitis C market, he said on a conference call with analysts.

But because Mr. Gonzalez characterized the $3 billion prediction as a year-end “exit rate”—not a full-year forecast—some analysts calculated that full-year 2015 sales would come in closer to $2 billion, reflecting a ramping up throughout the year.


A $2 billion drug in its first full year on the market would still be impressive by historical standards, but in the case of Viekira Pak it falls short of analysts’ current consensus forecast of about $2.8 billion—and short of what investors have come to expect for new hepatitis C drugs.
 




Anonymous said:
From WSJ...

Most pharmaceutical-company investors would be thrilled at the prospect of a new drug reaching annual sales of $2 billion to $3 billion. But the hit AbbVie Inc. shares took Friday shows how high expectations have become for new hepatitis C drugs.

AbbVie Inc. Chief Executive Richard Gonzalez said Friday he expects the company’s new hepatitis C treatment, Viekira Pak, to be selling at an annualized clip of more than $3 billion by the end of 2015. “We believe we have potential to capture a meaningful share” of the hepatitis C market, he said on a conference call with analysts.

But because Mr. Gonzalez characterized the $3 billion prediction as a year-end “exit rate”—not a full-year forecast—some analysts calculated that full-year 2015 sales would come in closer to $2 billion, reflecting a ramping up throughout the year.


A $2 billion drug in its first full year on the market would still be impressive by historical standards, but in the case of Viekira Pak it falls short of analysts’ current consensus forecast of about $2.8 billion—and short of what investors have come to expect for new hepatitis C drugs.
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Chicago Tribune ...

What's next: AbbVie will work to expand its Humira-reliant pipeline in 2015. The company expects to have $3 billion in Viekira Pak sales in 2015, capturing 40 percent of the insured market.
 
















Other analyst reports show Gilead with 85% of the market. ESI will be approx 27% of total ESI thier total Comercial. Gilead expected to have 13 out of 15 top plans. JP Morgan rep said ABBV expect about 10-12% US share total. Total US sales at $1.7 billion. Stockholders were expecting much more. Your guidance will be lowered resulting in a drop in stock values by approx 15% over next few months.
 
















It's a shitty product. US sales will be under $2B. Gilead will be over $12B. End of story. Your launch trjectory looks bad. ESI deal looks to have backfired. And even if there is parity in the market you will loose. That would be the best thing for Gilead.
 








Anonymous said:
It's a shitty product. US sales will be under $2B. Gilead will be over $12B. End of story. Your launch trjectory looks bad. ESI deal looks to have backfired. And even if there is parity in the market you will loose. That would be the best thing for Gilead.
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VPak is not a shitty product. There's just a easier regimen with slightly better efficacy. Had we been first to market maybe things might have been different.
 








Anonymous said:
VPak is not a shitty product efficacy and safety wise but as far as convienence goes, Harvoni wins on all counts.
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A lot of questions need to be asked of the top people in the company:

1. R&D/Clinical Development: bringing a drug with all of this baggage to market (pill count, QD/BID dosing schema, DDIs, RBV, RTV). Also not putting any effort to developing and/or acquiring a Nuc. If we needed to bring in the talent to do so then we should have coughed up the cash to acquire the talent to develop one in house or buy one. There still are a couple out there in development that look pretty good (ACH-3422 to name one).
2. Business Intelligence/Forecasting: dropping the ball and not seeing how quickly Gilead would bring Harvoni to market. They felt VPak would be first. Don't forget, Merck is coming at the end of 2015/early 2016 with 5172 + 8742. VPak is likely to get barely any scripts once this hits the market.
3. Sales & Marketing: for believeing this dog could win against Harvoni. VPak should have been shelved the minute we knew Harvoni was coming first to market. All focus should have been put on accelerating our Second Generation drugs - QD PI with no RTV and QD NS5A that is more potent than OBV. Will be able to coformulate to one pill QD, hopefully no RBV, and pangenotypic.
 








Anonymous said:
A lot of questions need to be asked of the top people in the company:

1. R&D/Clinical Development: bringing a drug with all of this baggage to market (pill count, QD/BID dosing schema, DDIs, RBV, RTV). Also not putting any effort to developing and/or acquiring a Nuc. If we needed to bring in the talent to do so then we should have coughed up the cash to acquire the talent to develop one in house or buy one. There still are a couple out there in development that look pretty good (ACH-3422 to name one).
2. Business Intelligence/Forecasting: dropping the ball and not seeing how quickly Gilead would bring Harvoni to market. They felt VPak would be first. Don't forget, Merck is coming at the end of 2015/early 2016 with 5172 + 8742. VPak is likely to get barely any scripts once this hits the market.
3. Sales & Marketing: for believeing this dog could win against Harvoni. VPak should have been shelved the minute we knew Harvoni was coming first to market. All focus should have been put on accelerating our Second Generation drugs - QD PI with no RTV and QD NS5A that is more potent than OBV. Will be able to coformulate to one pill QD, hopefully no RBV, and pangenotypic.
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Totally Agree!! So who needs to be FIRED for letting this occur??? People need to be accountable for this bad clinical and business F UP!!!!!!
 




Well said. The rumor is we were six months ahead of Harvoni in clinical trials. We should have been to market ahead of Gilead by several months. It would have definately changed things and we would not have been put in the position to contact the way we did. That being said, the execution by leadership, managed care, and marketing was and is ridiculous. Lutz and Louie are silent and have their heads up their ass! They are already moving people around and out of HCV while in the first month of launch???? This will go down in MBA case studies as the biggest botched launch in pharma history!
 








Anonymous said:
Well said. The rumor is we were six months ahead of Harvoni in clinical trials. We should have been to market ahead of Gilead by several months. It would have definately changed things and we would not have been put in the position to contact the way we did. That being said, the execution by leadership, managed care, and marketing was and is ridiculous. Lutz and Louie are silent and have their heads up their ass! They are already moving people around and out of HCV while in the first month of launch???? This will go down in MBA case studies as the biggest botched launch in pharma history!
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Movement in house - moving ppl around especially out of HCV means they're preparing for a layoff. Protecting ppl by moving them out. Smh. We're all on the chopping block. It's not a matter of IF; it's a matter of WHEN. Good Luck all.
 




Anonymous said:
Well said. The rumor is we were six months ahead of Harvoni in clinical trials. We should have been to market ahead of Gilead by several months. It would have definately changed things and we would not have been put in the position to contact the way we did. That being said, the execution by leadership, managed care, and marketing was and is ridiculous. Lutz and Louie are silent and have their heads up their ass! They are already moving people around and out of HCV while in the first month of launch???? This will go down in MBA case studies as the biggest botched launch in pharma history!
Click to expand...

Is that why Pehocki was moved out of his position in January - - - was Lootsie protecting him or making him the fall guy? The politics of HQ!! Morale is very low in the HCV marketing team! The VP and Directors look like they have seen a ghost!!
 




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