The primary efficacy analysis of the 30,000-patient Cove study that Moderna published today makes authorization seem likely. After 196 trial volunteers tested positive for COVID-19, investigators found 185 were among people randomized to receive a placebo. Just 11 confirmed cases of COVID-19 occurred among patients given mRNA-1273, which works out to a 94.1% efficacy rate.
It's important to note that none of the COVID-19 cases that occurred among patients vaccinated with mRNA-1273 turned severe. A similar coronavirus vaccine candidate from Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) will be the subject of an independent advisory committee meeting with the FDA on Dec. 10. Unlike Moderna, Pfizer and BioNTech can't claim their vaccine candidate was 100% effective at preventing severe COVID-19.
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