I own some TITXF as well and I think you make some valid points; some I was not aware of. However, I will challenge you about two things- interested for feedback:
1) If Medtronic, Boston, etc are not already developing a robot, by the time they go through development, testing, FDA submission, and FDA clearance, Intuitive will have about a 16-18 year head start on the market. I don't see those companies going down that path. It's much easier for them to buy out another company who has already done all of the dirty work. My opinion is Titan gets purchased very shortly after FDA clearance or market launch. I think they will get purchased by one of the huge device companies.
2) At $2.5 million, Intuitive's Ducati will only be appealing to certain hospitals (likely large hospitals with high surgical volume and high volume of complex procedures). Smaller hospitals interested in robotic surgery are not going to fork over $2.5 million. They will buy 2 SPORT robots and promote they have robotic surgery just like the big boys in the big cities.
2a) Do not forget how many customers absolutely hate dealing with Intuitive. I think there will be certain customers who anxiously await the day of competition and will willingly bring in a different robot out of spite to ISRG.
2b) Do not underestimate the shift in power in hospitals where decisions are made at the very top (C level) and the very bottom (purchasing, materials management, etc). Intuitive has burned some serious bridges in both spots. Docs will continue to lose influence and be forced into using what the hospital deems to be the best business decision. If Titan is purchased by a huge device company, they will have contracts in place and relationships at the C-level and be a very legitimate threat to sell systems much quicker than Titan could do with their own sales force.
I'm clearly not an expert in this space but took a small risk on Titan stock a while back. Someone has to challenge Intuitive and I think Titan has an interesting product and approach. Just my opinion and interested for other thoughts.
