Amgen will say the data hit primary endpoint of at least a 15% relative reduction. The problem is that a difference of 30% is expected and needed for cost effectiveness. Amgen will hit around 18% and then try and weave a story of why that is a meaningful number. Analyst will say the data sucks and the status quo is maintained. Repatha is a nice drug and now Amgen will wait for that 10% tax repatriation rate for a merger. Senior management will get a nice golden parachute.
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Time to watch Amgen stock decline on March 17th at ACC
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We still have Corlanor to pay the bills. Lol!
We all know that if the data was awesome amgen would have released to line ASAP instead of waiting for ACC to carefully craft their story so the stock won't drop immediately.
Wow, prediction was correct. Amgen shares dropping due to magnitude of effect not being large enough.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthe...ot-deaths-disappointing-experts/#4767c8f117cb
Analysts at investment banks and top cardiologists had been hoping that Repatha would reduce by as much as 30% the risk of a combined measure of heart attacks, strokes, deaths from heart disease, hospitalizations due to chest pain, and stent and heart bypass procedures. Instead, that result was just 15%, although the drug did better on reducing heart attacks and strokes, two of the measures that matter most. But Repatha also had no effect at all on whether patients died.
Haste Makes Waste?
But Repatha also didn’t impact a more important measure: whether patients lived longer. On Repatha, 1.8 of 100 patients died of cardiovascular causes; for placebo, that figure was 1.7. For the most part, these “cardiovascular causes” were not heart attacks and strokes, but sudden cardiac deaths, when a patient dies suddenly for unknown reasons. It could be that a cholesterol drug had no effect on sudden cardiac death. But only 0.4% of patients died from either a heart attack or stroke; the rates of fatal heart attacks and fatal strokes were actually better in the Repatha group, but were too small to draw conclusions. Doctors may just be better at preventing death compared to 20 years ago, when the first statin studies were run.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthe...ot-deaths-disappointing-experts/#4767c8f117cb
Analysts at investment banks and top cardiologists had been hoping that Repatha would reduce by as much as 30% the risk of a combined measure of heart attacks, strokes, deaths from heart disease, hospitalizations due to chest pain, and stent and heart bypass procedures. Instead, that result was just 15%, although the drug did better on reducing heart attacks and strokes, two of the measures that matter most. But Repatha also had no effect at all on whether patients died.
Haste Makes Waste?
But Repatha also didn’t impact a more important measure: whether patients lived longer. On Repatha, 1.8 of 100 patients died of cardiovascular causes; for placebo, that figure was 1.7. For the most part, these “cardiovascular causes” were not heart attacks and strokes, but sudden cardiac deaths, when a patient dies suddenly for unknown reasons. It could be that a cholesterol drug had no effect on sudden cardiac death. But only 0.4% of patients died from either a heart attack or stroke; the rates of fatal heart attacks and fatal strokes were actually better in the Repatha group, but were too small to draw conclusions. Doctors may just be better at preventing death compared to 20 years ago, when the first statin studies were run.
It is now up to the sales rep to prove the investors wrong. That is what you will be hearing from a manager near you on a conference call.
The IC plan is not motivating so many do not care to push hard.
The IC plan is not motivating so many do not care to push hard.
Won't happen is managed care restrictions are not dropped significantly. Amgen needs net price to drop around 3.5k net
Great call by the OP. Spot on. The Fifth Floor oversold and under delivered here. Share holders and employees will pay for this in lost investments and in jobs. So sad.
OP nailed it...AMG down -6.38% Friday after negative Repatha news. The drug and this launch has been a total disappointment and now layoffs are inevitable.
The Amgen study, while successful, was not all that compelling. Yes, the relative risk for the composite cardiovascular endpoints used in the study went down, but not by as much as observers were hoping for (15% reduction versus 20 or 25%). And when you get down to overall mortality, there was no change at all, which has to be a disappointment. Amgen has been arguing that this was a relatively short study, and that the first measurements were also taken at a relatively early point in the treatment, and that the overall trend is for better numbers as the treatment goes on (which may well continue). But while these points may be valid, it’s a little rich for Amgen to be making them, because they designed this trial themselves, presumably to generate the most compelling results in the shortest amount of time. The fact that they’re having to make such arguments at all is a sign that the trial definitely did not come out the way that they’d hoped – you can be sure that the plan was not to have to say “Well, gosh, it’s really not bad if you look closely”.
Yeah but if we eliminate all of the patients in south america then the data look much better. Please Trump quickly build that wall !
Get rid of them beaners in the data. They are bringing down outcomes. Those burrito beans and tacos need to be an exclusion factor.