Stock price Jan 2024

[anonymous]

Any predictions?

 

[anonymous]

Hard to say. I could argue both cases.

1. Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Botox, Vraylar - are solid products with enough DTC support that sales should be good. Maybe an over reaction to Humira last quarter that will be corrected in the coming quarters. So this argues a price og 140-160.

2. Sales for the above products don’t meet the promises. Our competition for each of these drugs gains ground. Some new failure in AbbVie execution is uncovered. Maybe another CRL or 483 or something. Humira erosion is more aggressive than anticipated (see Mark Cuban thing) - other external threats like government stuff on big pharma in an election year. We are then looking at maybe 80-100.

Based on recent performance by management I would bet on scenario 2.

 

[anonymous]

Fittingly, the inflation reduction act was written with Humira top of mind.

Line extensions and new indications and patent thickets on blockbusters have been knee capped. 130 patents? Doesn’t matter anymore. 18 indications? Clock starts with first indication.

The above is going to have a big impact on Upa and particularly Riza.

For the stock to grow or even maintain someone needs to totally redo R&D, because it takes a decade of good ideas (even if you buy them) to generate value through developing and launching the asset.

 

[anonymous]

Fittingly, the inflation reduction act was written with Humira top of mind.

Line extensions and new indications and patent thickets on blockbusters have been knee capped. 130 patents? Doesn’t matter anymore. 18 indications? Clock starts with first indication.

The above is going to have a big impact on Upa and particularly Riza.

For the stock to grow or even maintain someone needs to totally redo R&D, because it takes a decade of good ideas (even if you buy them) to generate value through developing and launching the asset.

This so true. The ‘innovation engine’ at AbbVie, be it Discovery or Development Sciences is incredibly broke. The people who actually innovate and can formulate are regularly pushed down and pushed out. I believe this happens due to the threat they pose and to allow the incompetent leaders to better secure their spots all with the enablement of HR.

To that end, Jan 2024 will see the price continue to descend below 100.

 

[anonymous]

This so true. The ‘innovation engine’ at AbbVie, be it Discovery or Development Sciences is incredibly broke. The people who actually innovate and can formulate are regularly pushed down and pushed out. I believe this happens due to the threat they pose and to allow the incompetent leaders to better secure their spots all with the enablement of HR.

To that end, Jan 2024 will see the price continue to descend below 100.

At least 100 and nowhere near the bottom.

 

[anonymous]

It’s aiming toward 130 going into the 4th.

Is there a plan, or just aim for a “soft landing” in 2025 and build back up before the next LOEs?

What would reassure investors?