Over under on when gilenya gets pulled or the lawsuits start to fly


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Not pulled but might as well be. Goes down to 7500 patients and 3% total marketshare. 225 million dollar drug. Yes, Gilenya is OVER.

It won't be pulled, but it will not e able to withstand the new label and new orals coming on the market. Novartis botch the launch and it's going to be a dead drug in 1 yr.
 




Shame on NVS for over paying all those outside MS reps to come over here with base salaries in the 120's, 130's or even the 140's. They could have hired 50% from within and taken the best to develop them.
 












They botch every single drug they bring to market. How could this one be any different. It can't be bad luck- it has to be either incompetence or compromised ethics. Signals in the early trials that they decided to ignore.
 








Tysabri has caused 200 cases of PML and doing fine. Gilenya will do 500 million far below expectations but they won't pull the drug.

Gilenya will do far below expectations as seen in recent trends. The sales force has had enough of broken promises and are preparing to interview with Genzyme/Sanofi and Biogen. Novartis has made it clear that they miscalculated quotas by 20% but are only making a 5% correction. I believe they want people to move on to reduce the sales force.
 




Tysabri has caused 200 cases of PML and doing fine. Gilenya will do 500 million far below expectations but they won't pull the drug.


See, your logic is flawed. Yes Tysabri has issues. But Tysabri shuts the disease down. Gilenya is all a matter of convenience. The food & drug administration is not going to bend over backwards to help Gilenya because it's efficacy is decent, but not even close to Tysabri. Gilenya is a molecule that the body hates to metabolize, and at the end of the day it's in serious trouble. FDA will come back with a massive restriction algorhythm that will cripple the usage of the drug. Nothing like Touch...touch is simple. This will be a mess never seen before in the industry. At most Gilenya will be a 400,000,000 drug. Reps will be cut by 2013 dramatically and the entire KAM team will be eliminated.
 




Gilenya will do far below expectations as seen in recent trends. The sales force has had enough of broken promises and are preparing to interview with Genzyme/Sanofi and Biogen. Novartis has made it clear that they miscalculated quotas by 20% but are only making a 5% correction. I believe they want people to move on to reduce the sales force.

This is typical for Novartis.
 




See, your logic is flawed. Yes Tysabri has issues. But Tysabri shuts the disease down. Gilenya is all a matter of convenience. The food & drug administration is not going to bend over backwards to help Gilenya because it's efficacy is decent, but not even close to Tysabri. Gilenya is a molecule that the body hates to metabolize, and at the end of the day it's in serious trouble. FDA will come back with a massive restriction algorhythm that will cripple the usage of the drug. Nothing like Touch...touch is simple. This will be a mess never seen before in the industry. At most Gilenya will be a 400,000,000 drug. Reps will be cut by 2013 dramatically and the entire KAM team will be eliminated.

I agree 400k but the KAM team will stay and given a bigger area. The mirror reps will be let go. Remember we have a salesforce for a drug that does 40 million.
 




I agree 400k but the KAM team will stay and given a bigger area. The mirror reps will be let go. Remember we have a salesforce for a drug that does 40 million.

True but 40 million on the hope of a billion. Once the FDA comes back and Novartis realized the REAL POTENTIAL of 400m at most, drastic cuts will occur. KAMs will be cut in half and given double the geography and yes mirrors will be immediately eliminated. So sad. We thought we were safe in MS division. Turns out this is a sinking ship just like the rest of this god awful company.
 




True but 40 million on the hope of a billion. Once the FDA comes back and Novartis realized the REAL POTENTIAL of 400m at most, drastic cuts will occur. KAMs will be cut in half and given double the geography and yes mirrors will be immediately eliminated. So sad. We thought we were safe in MS division. Turns out this is a sinking ship just like the rest of this god awful company.

I will bet that they will get rid of all the KAMS first.