Those joining Onyx thinking the Brinksmanship truck backing up at their house think again. Gonna have to hit $90+ now that market just baked in results of carf. Into revenues.
That ain't gonna happen my friends. Nothing like being underwater in your home and your options.
Well, let's do the math. Let's say you get brought on after the stock popped. So after a stock pops, you have profit taking meaning that the stock will fall back some (watch what happens later on today 6/22/2012). Profit takers (including many new managers and employees) will sell and take profits from the "pop." Then reps get hired and stock price will be around upper 50s at the time (once the profit takers sell). Company gets bought at $80 a share (because we all know $100 a share is ridiculous and WAY overvalued---see additional commentary below).
So if I sign on at $58 a share with 2000 shares of stock options and ONXX gets bought out at $80, then I make (at best) $25 a share. $25 x 2000=$50,000
So now I have $50K. But I had to buy a $30K car to sign on with ONXX and I will likely be stuck with that car after the potential new buyer comes in and cleans house. So I end up with about $20K. Now, the market cap of the company jumped about $1.25 Billion just with today's stock activity. Carfilz won't likely do $500M in its best year. So, is this recent stock bump sustainable? Is the stock undervalued, overvalued, or just about right? These are all decisions YOU have to ask yourself.
I would love to see ONXX tell potential buyers to piss off and let the stock ride, split, ride, split, ride, split. And they may do it. The economy is about to take another downturn and many "big pharmas" are not in positions to be spending a lot of cash. So it may be a good gamble. But no big pharma is going to pay $100 a share. And the stock is likely already overvalued.
Well, let's do the math. Let's say you get brought on after the stock popped. So after a stock pops, you have profit taking meaning that the stock will fall back some (watch what happens later on today 6/22/2012). Profit takers (including many new managers and employees) will sell and take profits from the "pop." Then reps get hired and stock price will be around upper 50s at the time (once the profit takers sell). Company gets bought at $80 a share (because we all know $100 a share is ridiculous and WAY overvalued---see additional commentary below).
So if I sign on at $58 a share with 2000 shares of stock options and ONXX gets bought out at $80, then I make (at best) $25 a share. $25 x 2000=$50,000
So now I have $50K. But I had to buy a $30K car to sign on with ONXX and I will likely be stuck with that car after the potential new buyer comes in and cleans house. So I end up with about $20K. Now, the market cap of the company jumped about $1.25 Billion just with today's stock activity. Carfilz won't likely do $500M in its best year. So, is this recent stock bump sustainable? Is the stock undervalued, overvalued, or just about right? These are all decisions YOU have to ask yourself.
I would love to see ONXX tell potential buyers to piss off and let the stock ride, split, ride, split, ride, split. And they may do it. The economy is about to take another downturn and many "big pharmas" are not in positions to be spending a lot of cash. So it may be a good gamble. But no big pharma is going to pay $100 a share. And the stock is likely already overvalued.
How do you get away without paying taxes? Can you please let me know I have several stock purcases over the year to where on 50K I'd have to pay at least $15K in taxes??
Please advise
Good Luck finding a company willing to pay $80/shr.
How do you get away without paying taxes? Can you please let me know I have several stock purcases over the year to where on 50K I'd have to pay at least $15K in taxes??
Please advise
Good Luck finding a company willing to pay $80/shr.
Not to mention:
Those joining company will get options in 60's. Stock will fall based on overhype and lackluster sales. yes it will happen because MM is not a multi billion dollar disease state. That my friends is CML.
Sales fall, stock falls to mid 40's, company gets sold in 60's,
NOW, YOUR OPTIONS WORTHLESS!!! That my friend is the real situation not somebody buying in the 80's, 90's or 100's.
Not to mention:
Those joining company will get options in 60's. Stock will fall based on overhype and lackluster sales. yes it will happen because MM is not a multi billion dollar disease state. That my friends is CML.
Sales fall, stock falls to mid 40's, company gets sold in 60's,
NOW, YOUR OPTIONS WORTHLESS!!! That my friend is the real situation not somebody buying in the 80's, 90's or 100's.
Why would a company sell itself in the 60’s when it is already in the 60’s even if it drops to the 40’s??? It makes absolutely zero sense that a company would take a deal in the 60’s with the amount of cash Onyx has on hand, the 20% of Rego sales coming, expanded label in Nex with thyroid, and even if we receives modest revenue from Cfz sales? Again do you not follow the market? Alexion has one drug in two niche indications and nothing big on the horizon in their pipeline yet they are trading in the mid 90’s, with a $17.5B mkt cap yet no company is buying them and no one is screaming they are overvalued!!! Yet, Onyx with 50% share of Nex which is and will be for the foreseeable future the only systemic therapy in the fast growing HCC market, a soon to be had thyroid indication, 20% of revenue with no overhead contribution with Rego in CRC, and more indications coming with CFZ with phase III, more indications in Rego coming, yet Onyx is going to take $40 a share!?! Seriously you have got to be the stupidest person on the board with absolutely zero background in biotech M&A’s. Our BOD and institutional investors(many of whom have been with us for many years) have stuck with us and turned down much higher offers than what we are currently trading yet you think they are going to dump and run in the 40’s? So you think you are smarter than our institutional investors? If they thought we are tee up for a downfall why not sell off now at the highest share price in the history of the company? They could dump and run now and never hit the 40’s no matter how flooded the market gets with ONXX shares.
Do your homework next time instead of giving us your very green and uneducated ‘opinion’!
So a 33% return on stock price not good for ya? LOL
3-4 x book is very very reasonable
This is why you do not make any strategic decisions for Onyx. You're an idiot
Nevermind, you will get $240/shr buyout per share and retire lol
33% increase since postitive ODAC is great, but Onyx will get 40% on current price of $64, why settle for 33% of $44?
That's why you've never made any real money in the market...back to night school loser.
