Novartis Stock: RTBKPL
- Thread starter RTBKPL
- Start date
Management probably driving price up with buy back program so they can excercise options at good price, then bail.
My technical indicators show a top around 66. That is from patterns establihed a while ago and I have been waiting it out since. My stops are in place @ 59, so I'll risk the extra buck here to get 5+ (hopefully) in the near term future.....
"Advise all of our clients to sell NVS at $66. Mr. Valentine has set the price."
My financial advisor thinks I recommends sell. He claims all indicators look dismal, this is near the tope of what we can expect.
I am going to sell as my kids want the G. I. Joe with the Kung Fu Grip.
My son wants Stretch Armstrong. It appears that Novartis and Stretch Armstrong have alot in common. They are both plastic, their goals are to stretch as far as they can (reps), and when broken, due to THEIR playing inappropriately, they throw you away!
Hello Wage and Overtime suit!
Hello Wage and Overtime suit!
RT, it is at 61 and change right now. at what price would you sell?
The noted American economist John Kenneth Galbraith was once asked to predict the future of the market at the time. After his answer, someone asked him how he knew what was going to happen. His reply, "I don't, but you asked."
So now we have RT telling us to "buy the dips, sell the tips." I know he has pontificated (yes RT it is me) in the past, but now this???!!! How do YOU know when the tips and dips are? WTF? Closed today at $61.19, and my word is that it will go to $75 to $82 by end of 2012. Listen glider boy, you'll have to watch your six with financial advice like that!
No one KNOWS when the "Tips or Dips" are but RT is wise in his advice. When a healthy Multi-national company like Novartis is trading at its 52 week high you sell and when it's trading at its 52 week low you buy. You may leave some profit on the table but no one knows what the tip is ultimately going to be. Follow RT's rule and you'll do just fine.
If you sold your APL or GOOG at any 52 week high in the last few years, you would be crying in your soup right now. Granted, NVS is no tech flyer, but you don't sell a rallying stock - nor do you buy a falling one. That is the reason you use trailing stops (Google it if you are clueless on the topic). The first question to ask yourself is are you an investor or a trader? If you sell now, where will you put the money? Are you going to buy the stock back if it keeps going up? Will you buy it back if it goes back down, and where?
- RTBKPL May 17, 2011 at 01:22: PM
RTBKPL
Member
By the end of 2012? 75 go 82$? Well may I ask on what do you base that rise in price? I am an active investor, I take profit when profit is there to take and I do quite well. So Galbraith admitted he couldn't predict the future but you can? You might be right, I might be wrong, that is one certainty. The other certainty is that if you bought at the historical low and sold at the historical high you would be doing well. I sold below the high and bought after the low but made out well all the same.
Good advice from the guy who asked if you're an investor or trader. I do both. The Pharma industry is too volatile for me to see companies as good long term investments, a few yes but the majority no. Other industries are more stable but in this economy we don't know if we will wake up tomorrow and the bottom falls out of everything. I am amused at the number of strong buy recommendations vs sell recommendations for Novartis at this time. I am equally amused at their reasons for strong buy recommendations. Bottom line is no one truly knows but if you have made a reasonable profit, take some of it off the table.
Novartis cash flow is good, it is diversifying but as yet I do not see what you are seeing.
No one should act unless they have consulted their own broker or advisor but at 60 I would be happy with my profits.
Never let the bastards get you down.
RTBKPL
Everyone has an opinion, some unbiased and some (especially on here) very biased....
For good insight into what analysts look at when evaluating NVS, read this:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/270534-novartis-dividend-stock-analysis?source=marketwatch
They don't take into effect the way NVS treats employees, just pure dollars and cents > remember, it's all for the shareholders, stupid.
For good insight into what analysts look at when evaluating NVS, read this:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/270534-novartis-dividend-stock-analysis?source=marketwatch
They don't take into effect the way NVS treats employees, just pure dollars and cents > remember, it's all for the shareholders, stupid.
BS? That's the most intelligent comment you can make? Is your vocabulary so limited or perhaps your opinion so clouded that BS is all you could come up with? Novartis has a good degree of diversification in business in general but between 2011 and 2015 they will experience a substantial degree of erosion in their pharma division due to generics while there is questionable upside potential at best for their pipeline.
I spoke with three brokers and three analysts all of whom disagreed. One buy, one hold and one sell. Not even the "experts" seem to agree. How can we in the rank and file make an informed decision? We can't, the information will never be adequately available to us nor do I think the analysts get all the necessary information to make their decisions.
RT is right. Take profits when you can. Twenty dollars per share in the bank is better than a potential twenty dollars more a year or two down the road.
jmhfo
Why not be protective and risk a couple dollars to get more gain? I have a standing $59 stop in place, so I'll still take a nice chunk of change off the table if it falters, but I'm not out of the game if there are unseen factors that will drive this higher. Never take yourself out of a good position unless the market tells you to be out.
- RTBKPL May 19, 2011 at 08:59: AM
RTBKPL
Member
I'm fine with using stop loss orders, set a bottom and go with it, adjust your position as necessary. I do not see the strong buy indicators that some of the analysts see. Eight with strong buy recommendations and one with a sell? Perhaps they have info to which I am not privy. While the cash and diversification situation of Novartis looks favorable, I just don't see the same upside potential, I have been wrong before. The open market theory seldom exists and analysts are rarely held accountable for their mistakes. As they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Never let the bastards get you down.
RTBKPL
- RTBKPL May 19, 2011 at 09:12: AM
RTBKPL
Member
What I find interesting is the following comment at the end of his report: "Disclosure: As of this writing, I have no position in NVS.
You can see my full list of individual holdings here."
Fine, he has no position so he is not writing to have the sales go up, the price meet with demand and then he can sell at a profit. However he is touting a company in which he has no position, why? Shouldn't he buy now? Sure, no one has the money to buy every position they find favorable, but how many buys out there are more favorable? I have always been suspicious of analysts, somewhere down the line someone has a strong position and wants to see the price move up so they can sell. Can you say Cahoots? I took the six courses required to sit for the CFP exam years ago, what I learned was that Wall Street will never be totally honest with you, me or anyone who is not part of their organization. I have had moments of buying genius and moments of buying idiocy. If you can beat the S&P you are doing well. Buy what you know, do your own analysis and good luck. I'd still sell at the current price.
Never let the bastards get you down.
RTBKPL
If you would look at the weekly charts you will see NVS has good support between 57.50-58.00 range. Your 59 stop is not sound. Likely you will get taken out on a re-test of the support levels and then you'll see the shares rebound back over 59. Happens all the time.