Natera going with an IPO?

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Anonymous said:
I thought this company was losing money left and right? They are going public?
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Clearly you have zero business accunem. Amazon has been losing money for years. Most of the top tech companies are losing money. Has nothing to do with IPO. Natera has shown substantial growth from 2014-2015. That's what is of interest. I could name dozens of big name companies that show net losses over billions in revenue, but you are just a troll and I'm not going to waste time.
 



Anonymous said:
Clearly you have zero business accunem. Amazon has been losing money for years. Most of the top tech companies are losing money. Has nothing to do with IPO. Natera has shown substantial growth from 2014-2015. That's what is of interest. I could name dozens of big name companies that show net losses over billions in revenue, but you are just a troll and I'm not going to waste time.
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Both are valid statements, but no need to be condescending with your reply. Not everyone understands how this works. The fundamental issue Natera will face post IPO is that the growth rates can not be sustained long term. Here is why:

1. The market is saturated right now and Natera has over expanded the sales force. Senior management knows this and has begun selectively collapsing vacant territories (Indiana/Michigan not being filled). They also know that the monster growth expectations set quarter over quarter have hit the pinical with Q-2 goals (80-85% of sales force not going to hit goal), and they know SPIFS are more about luck and timing than about performance. Strong reps are already planning exit strategies.

2. Reimbursement nightmare is just beginning. Management needs continued 35% growth quarter over quarter to make up for losses on existing sales. We are loosing revenue on 70% of all NIPT tests that are processed. Now we are having billing push to get more money from patients when they call in. We have abandoned the $25, and the $100, as well as the " we will accept what you patient can afford" and the " billing will not attempt to negotiate" strategies. We are now asking for $200 if a patient says they can afford $100. It will only get worse. An RD in the East told a rep that "even if a new account is 100% Medicaid to go ahead and take the kits now because we need the volume now". It is a house of cards with our billing structure.

3. The IPO will generate $$$$$ based on share price and volume, but only in the short run. Anyone remember what the initial price of Facebook was? What it dropped to within 30 days? Where it trades today? The initial pop will be nice for Natera, but by the time the 6 month trading block expires and most employees will be allowed to sell their shares....the price will have settled in much lower that the I itial IPO price. That is because Wall Street will have discovered that NIPT is loosing more than it can bring in on growth, and that an $11,000+ Carrier Screening test will not be loved by insurance companies. Once the stock settles in at <$10.00 a share in December, all hell will break loose. Rep layoffs and cost control measures in order to get someone to come buy them.

Rest assured, by this time next year, Natera will no longer be Natera. But by then, DC, PE, KS and PM will have moved on to the next company to destroy...I mean build out. All under the leadership of SC. But I'm sure they will take everyone with them.
 









Anonymous said:
Both are valid statements, but no need to be condescending with your reply. Not everyone understands how this works. The fundamental issue Natera will face post IPO is that the growth rates can not be sustained long term. Here is why:

1. The market is saturated right now and Natera has over expanded the sales force. Senior management knows this and has begun selectively collapsing vacant territories (Indiana/Michigan not being filled). They also know that the monster growth expectations set quarter over quarter have hit the pinical with Q-2 goals (80-85% of sales force not going to hit goal), and they know SPIFS are more about luck and timing than about performance. Strong reps are already planning exit strategies.

2. Reimbursement nightmare is just beginning. Management needs continued 35% growth quarter over quarter to make up for losses on existing sales. We are loosing revenue on 70% of all NIPT tests that are processed. Now we are having billing push to get more money from patients when they call in. We have abandoned the $25, and the $100, as well as the " we will accept what you patient can afford" and the " billing will not attempt to negotiate" strategies. We are now asking for $200 if a patient says they can afford $100. It will only get worse. An RD in the East told a rep that "even if a new account is 100% Medicaid to go ahead and take the kits now because we need the volume now". It is a house of cards with our billing structure.

3. The IPO will generate $$$$$ based on share price and volume, but only in the short run. Anyone remember what the initial price of Facebook was? What it dropped to within 30 days? Where it trades today? The initial pop will be nice for Natera, but by the time the 6 month trading block expires and most employees will be allowed to sell their shares....the price will have settled in much lower that the I itial IPO price. That is because Wall Street will have discovered that NIPT is loosing more than it can bring in on growth, and that an $11,000+ Carrier Screening test will not be loved by insurance companies. Once the stock settles in at <$10.00 a share in December, all hell will break loose. Rep layoffs and cost control measures in order to get someone to come buy them.

Rest assured, by this time next year, Natera will no longer be Natera. But by then, DC, PE, KS and PM will have moved on to the next company to destroy...I mean build out. All under the leadership of SC. But I'm sure they will take everyone with them.
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I can agree with a lot of what you are saying, but not all of it. Also, any company filing for IPO generally does so with a strong pipeline and business plan moving forward. The like of Goldman and Morgan Stanley wouldn't even entertain us if not for a strong financial plan looking into 2016/2017/2018. You make a lot of mention on NIPT and Carrier screening but fail to mention the companies oncology division. Rest assured, the hopes and dreams of the IPO and Natera rest in the hands of that division and how well the tests perform. That's what the stock price will be built on and continue to grow on. 6 months the stock price will still be high. It's after the oncology division shows clinical validation (or doesn't) that something might change significantly.
 









Anonymous said:
Clearly you have zero business accunem. Amazon has been losing money for years. Most of the top tech companies are losing money. Has nothing to do with IPO. Natera has shown substantial growth from 2014-2015. That's what is of interest. I could name dozens of big name companies that show net losses over billions in revenue, but you are just a troll and I'm not going to waste time.
Click to expand...

So, according to you........a company can lose money, but still be considered successful?
 



Anonymous said:
Both are valid statements, but no need to be condescending with your reply. Not everyone understands how this works. The fundamental issue Natera will face post IPO is that the growth rates can not be sustained long term. Here is why:

1. The market is saturated right now and Natera has over expanded the sales force. Senior management knows this and has begun selectively collapsing vacant territories (Indiana/Michigan not being filled). They also know that the monster growth expectations set quarter over quarter have hit the pinical with Q-2 goals (80-85% of sales force not going to hit goal), and they know SPIFS are more about luck and timing than about performance. Strong reps are already planning exit strategies.

2. Reimbursement nightmare is just beginning. Management needs continued 35% growth quarter over quarter to make up for losses on existing sales. We are loosing revenue on 70% of all NIPT tests that are processed. Now we are having billing push to get more money from patients when they call in. We have abandoned the $25, and the $100, as well as the " we will accept what you patient can afford" and the " billing will not attempt to negotiate" strategies. We are now asking for $200 if a patient says they can afford $100. It will only get worse. An RD in the East told a rep that "even if a new account is 100% Medicaid to go ahead and take the kits now because we need the volume now". It is a house of cards with our billing structure.

3. The IPO will generate $$$$$ based on share price and volume, but only in the short run. Anyone remember what the initial price of Facebook was? What it dropped to within 30 days? Where it trades today? The initial pop will be nice for Natera, but by the time the 6 month trading block expires and most employees will be allowed to sell their shares....the price will have settled in much lower that the I itial IPO price. That is because Wall Street will have discovered that NIPT is loosing more than it can bring in on growth, and that an $11,000+ Carrier Screening test will not be loved by insurance companies. Once the stock settles in at <$10.00 a share in December, all hell will break loose. Rep layoffs and cost control measures in order to get someone to come buy them.

Rest assured, by this time next year, Natera will no longer be Natera. But by then, DC, PE, KS and PM will have moved on to the next company to destroy...I mean build out. All under the leadership of SC. But I'm sure they will take everyone with them.
Click to expand...

I've been telling you ......... KS is a nobody.
 






Anonymous said:
So, according to you........a company can lose money, but still be considered successful?
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I don't know..do you consider GoDaddy successful? How about Amazon? Box? Spotify? Aol? General Motors? Etc...the list of successful companies that post net losses on a yearly basis is quite long. So, to answer your question....yes.
 



Anonymous said:
I don't know..do you consider GoDaddy successful? How about Amazon? Box? Spotify? Aol? General Motors? Etc...the list of successful companies that post net losses on a yearly basis is quite long. So, to answer your question....yes.
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Brother....you are in dire need of an education. You really think 1 + 1 = 3? You're merely scratching the surface with those remarks. You seriously believe those companies you listed ae simply "losing money" end of story? You need to retake microeconomics 101, basic accounting and business psychology. After you get your GED.
 



Anonymous said:
Brother....you are in dire need of an education. You really think 1 + 1 = 3? You're merely scratching the surface with those remarks. You seriously believe those companies you listed ae simply "losing money" end of story? You need to retake microeconomics 101, basic accounting and business psychology. After you get your GED.
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I'm well aware of the generalization from which my comment is derived from. It speaks to the very elementary basics of the question asked; "you are saying a company can lose money and still be successful." Would you not agree all the above companies are successful? They all lost net losses (which is what this person is referring to) and are considered successful. So, before we jump into a micro economics debate followed by going public 101, just take the root of the question posed and try to answer as dumb as you can. Companies that post net losses can be considered successful. End of story. No need for all the other stuff...unless you really want to dive in and then we can go there as well. I have a high school diploma and a couple other ones beyond as well. No worries.
 



Anonymous said:
I'm well aware of the generalization from which my comment is derived from. It speaks to the very elementary basics of the question asked; "you are saying a company can lose money and still be successful." Would you not agree all the above companies are successful? They all lost net losses (which is what this person is referring to) and are considered successful. So, before we jump into a micro economics debate followed by going public 101, just take the root of the question posed and try to answer as dumb as you can. Companies that post net losses can be considered successful. End of story. No need for all the other stuff...unless you really want to dive in and then we can go there as well. I have a high school diploma and a couple other ones beyond as well. No worries.
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omg.......must be our company management.
 






Anonymous said:
And you must be an underperforming diva who can't seem to grasp the basic concepts of what you are supposed to be selling. Keep practicing those role plays girl, you may have to actually know something in the field. This isn't pharma after all..
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CafePharma needs a "like" button or something...so true ^ .....so many of those at training and with other companies. Industry standard it seems..
 






Anonymous said:
And you must be an underperforming diva who can't seem to grasp the basic concepts of what you are supposed to be selling. Keep practicing those role plays girl, you may have to actually know something in the field. This isn't pharma after all..
Click to expand...

Our beloved management sucks !!!! I'm spending my time looking elsewhere to get out of this s#$%hole. Thank you.
 






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