Lilly sales beat forecast; drugmaker raises view

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On the surface, here in the calm before the storm, all seems well.

HOWEVER, in the first half of 2011, total revenue in nominal $US is up 7.6 %, while 4 major products for which patents will expire between now and 2014 (Zyprexa, Cymbalta, Humalog, and Evista), combined revenue has increased by 10.3 % in the first half of 2011, so the 4 products now make up 51.6 % of total renue vs 50.4 % in first half 2010.

In contrast, Erbitux revenues to Lilly were down 4 % in Q2, Byetta revenues were down 3 % in Q2, and Effient (formerly known as the annointed replacement for Zyprexa revenues) sold only $128 million in 1st half 2011.

So the old stuff is carrying more of the load and new stuff is not growing like it needs to be.

In contrast, Prozac was decreasing as a percentage of total revenues in the 1-2 year prior to its patent expiration.

So Lilly needs to hope that new products (Trajenta and Bydureon) do better than these other recent product additions and/or something big comes out of Phase 3. Otherwise, I see another 5,500 job cuts in their future

Sincerely,

a former Lilly peon (and current holder of their stock)
 






























Anonymous said:
Why the hell do you still own Lilly stock? Even if you worked for Lilly at one time, that shouldn't make you stupid.
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It's a reasonable question given the obvious ineptitude of Lilly management. The dividend is good compared to the paltry sums available from 'safe' investments like CD's.

I have dumped a lot of Lilly stock both from the 401k account (company match) and from past performance stock awards. Currently holding still some in 401k and only this year's performance award (left company very recently) but with an eye on the exit.
 


















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