It'll Be a depressing Monday for AZ article









AstraZeneca should write a book Titled: How to F*ck up a pharma company in just a few years! Good Grief!!
Indeed. Some of the decisions they have made are so stupid that it almost seems they were trying to ruin the company on purpose. You couldn't have ruined the morale and hindered the performance of our sales force any more if you had been doing it on purpose. Just look at some of the people they brought back to the company in promoted positions. I mean seriiously, J.S. as ASD, Tuller as ASD and LN as NSD are just a few examples. It might have been different if they had been really successful high performers but they had failed once with us and then with their new company and we give them a huge pay raise and a promotion to come back. How fucking stupid was that?
 




This was once a great company that cared for itself and the employees. Ever since Legal and HR took over there has been no direction and therefore, I have to say this article is correct and AZ is a toilet within the pharma industry.
 




Nothing we all didn't know about before the article came out. It will be interesting to see how fast the generic erosion of Seroquel happens. Selling XR just got a whole lot more interesting.
I am amazed as to how few people were laid off in January. They could have cut 50% or more very easily. We lucked out due to the fact that they even fucked up the layoff!
 




"Offsetting the patent expiration are two new products with potential to do quite well, Conover said, referring to Onglyza, a diabetes drug, and Brilinta, a heart medication.

"If [Onglyza and Brilinta] do a lot better than the Street is anticipating, it could offset," Conover said. "In time, they will probably get a pipeline that's better, but right now they are facing an extending patent cliff, with a pipeline that is not really that strong."

That's a quote from the Delaware Online article. Are we seriously hoping Onglyza and Brilinta are going to offset our brands going generic???
 








From the article:

"At the same time, the company plans to do what it can to support the stock price for investors by buying back shares. AstraZeneca said it will buy back another $4.5 billion of stock this year; it purchased about $5 billion in stock in 2011, its biggest buyback to date."


Looks like a Ponzi strategy. The shares have lost value so if anyone wants to sell, AZ has the cash to gobble up the supply and prop the stock price up with artificial demand. But AZ is losing its ability to generate cash. The value in the company is declining, so every penny AZ spends on shares will likely lose money because the stock value is eroding away with every patent expiry.

This is a poor use of other people's money and the executives running AZ may not even be aware of it, since they published it as a business strategy. The proper thing for any company to do with investors' money, if they can't allocate it to generate a good return, is to return it in a special dividend, according to Benjamin Graham.

That 5 billion spent last year on shares probably isn't worth the 5 billion spent on shares today, unless the buys were timed to perfection -- check out the trend line in the stock:


http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


It's a safe bet, based on the stock chart, that the 5 billion spent on shares last year lost around 5% in value. (That's $250 million.) AZ should be investing the excess capital in the pharmaceutical business or they should return the investors' money to them.

Of course a side effect of this strategy is that any share awards that come due will likely still be worth a lot of money for the people getting share awards, if the share awards are paid at a future date. Maybe that's what's up? Maybe the stock price support isn't "for investors," instead, maybe it's for the executives waiting for their share awards to mature.
 




"In general, this is a company that is probably facing one of the worst patent cliffs in the industry," said Damien Conover, associate director of health care at the Morningstar investment firm. "That, coupled with a pipeline that hasn't produced enough offsetting new products, has really put the company in a challenging spot."
 




"In general, this is a company that is probably facing one of the worst patent cliffs in the industry," said Damien Conover, associate director of health care at the Morningstar investment firm. "That, coupled with a pipeline that hasn't produced enough offsetting new products, has really put the company in a challenging spot."

And what a team to handle the challenge: They've seen the issue on the horizon for 10 years or so (ever since the merger of Astra and Zeneca) and haven't managed to create one single new chemical entity in the interim. Only repackaged versions of existing products.

I'm "all in" on this bet.
 




Nothing we all didn't know about before the article came out. It will be interesting to see how fast the generic erosion of Seroquel happens. Selling XR just got a whole lot more interesting.
I am amazed as to how few people were laid off in January. They could have cut 50% or more very easily. We lucked out due to the fact that they even fucked up the layoff!

With the pressure these days to use generics, historically speaking, you will see negative growth by the second month!!!
 








"The FDA approved generic versions of AstraZeneca's Seroquel (quetiapine) from Dr. Reddy's, Lupin and Sun Pharmaceutical following the expiry of the product's patent on Monday. Dr. Reddy's said it has launched the drug in the US, while Lupin noted it has started shipping the product.

AstraZeneca announced Monday that a US district court denied the company's request seeking to prevent the FDA from approving generic versions of Seroquel. The drugmaker had argued that generic versions of the schizophrenia and bipolar disorder treatment should contain similar warnings to the branded versions about blood glucose levels and possible suicide.

US sales of Seroquel reached approximately $4.6 billion last year."
 




everyone better buckle up..... more cuts on the way. No way around it.

They will cut us 1000x to death. It's easier to lop off people in a few hundred at a time to "finally get it right"

the cost of labor when you are losing more in sales than a sales division can actually sell is a losing proposition. Add the lack of new products and a demoralized sales team..... no success for a long long time
 




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