While you bring up a few good points, it's time to set down the crack pipe and get to reality. Please feel free to dispute these facts.
1) Our (Roche) HCV sales force is much larger than our good friends at Merck. Same is true with Vertex. Pharma/Biotech sizes sales forces to their competition. We will get a reduction of 25-40 sales reps, most likely 5 or six dm's and at least one RSD to size ourselves with our competition, in tghe near future. Thats why there is so much focus on our development. Its to help us get our next job (inside of or outside of Genentech).
2) WE are the market leader in HCV. There are no imminent threats to Pegasys. That's why its time to downsize. Now is the best time to cut our sales force. Trim the fat. Corporate knows that we won't see a dramatic decrease in market share... How much market share did we lose the last time we cut? Nothing is the right answer.
3) Biosimilliars- Yes, they are coming.
4) Profitability- This may be the most obvious. Cutting the sales force or overhead will make us more profitable. Thats what Basel wants.
THis is why my resume is polished. Don't ignore the obvious.
Crack head here!
1 and 2) Sales force sizing is constantly re-evaluated, for ALL sales forces. I have already stated that the sheer dominance of Pegasys could cause cuts, as obviously the drug has minimal competition, and pretty much sells itself at this point; the fight against PegIntron is over! However, speculating on the scope and timing of any change is just that, speculation. "trimming" the sales force is not the same as the imminent doom and gloom predicted by the Original poster. There simply is no indication of a pending reduction, so why speculate, and spout numbers as though they were fact?
3) Biosimilars? Why are we even discussing this, the Pegasys patent does not even expire until 2015! Thats 3-4 years before a Biosimilar can hit the market, and that assumes no patent extensions, and that there is interest in pursuing such a drug. In the drug industry, four years is a lifetime.
4) Profitabilty- ALL companies want maximum profitability, not just "BASEL"; and that means all! All considerations of sales force sizing are considered against the backdrop of sales thus profitabilty. With minimal managed care impact (98% parity vs peg intron), pegasys is a highly profitable drug. Drug reps are not really sales people, they are resources that are deployed as tactics; just like TV commercials, Radio ads, bill boards, print ads, teledetailing, etc. Reps are expensive, but there is a reason that they are used, that is "THEY WORK"; this is a fact! It would make little sense to have dramatic cuts in a sales force, when it is clear that they have caused and have sustained such dramatic success. "Tweaking" yes? doom and gloom scenario espoused by the OP, no!
In conclusion, there is no need for alarm, and there is no pending doom and gloom, at least that you or I know of. These are the facts, Pegasys is being studied with EVERY SINGLE DAA drug in the HCV pipeline; Pegasys does not lose its patent for 3-4 years, and there is no know biosimilar in the pipeline; there is no ALL ORAL therapy. in phase 2 or phase 3 for genotype 1 HCV, hence, any ALL ORAL regimen is years away from being a reality; Roche HCV is the most experience and most successful sales force in the burgeoning HCV market. Our reps will be highly sought after, as these new companies come online, as there simply are not many reps with HCV experince, knowledge, and relationships. The fact of the matter is short term (3-4), even if Pegasys is our only product, most of us have nothing at all to worry about; and long term we will have plenty of opportunities. Trust me when I tell you that management worries much more about mass defections, than layoffs of 10 or 15 reps. And yes, like ALL reps, and others, your resume should always be polished, but there is no pending doo and gloom.