Hep C for Merck- another lost cause

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Beats Merck in Hepatitis C Drug Sales


By Oliver Renick - Jul 29, 2011 5:45 PM ET

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) rose the most in three months after the company reported revenue from its new hepatitis C drug that was twice the sales projected by analysts and three times that of a rival drug from Merck & Co.
Vertex, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said second- quarter sales of the treatment, called Incivek, were $75 million, more than double the $35 million estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The company rose $3.88, or 8.1 percent, in Nasdaq Stock Market trading to $51.86, the largest one-day gain in three months.
The better-than-expected sales suggest that Vertex’s Incivek has the market lead against Merck & Co.’s rival drug for hepatitis C, a viral infection of the liver that affects 3.2 million people in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Incivek sales are expected to reach $637 million for 2011, according to 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That compares with about $128 million for Merck’s hepatitis C treatment Victrelis, according to three analysts.
“Vertex delivered a blow to pessimists, skeptics and cynics by more than doubling consensus for Incivek’s first quarter of sales,” said Geoffrey Porges, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York, in a note to investors today. Porges has an ”outperform” rating on the stock.
Merck, which reported second-quarter results today, said Victrelis generated $21 million in sales. Victrelis and Incivek both received U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval to market their drugs in May.
Beating Revenue Estimates
Vertex yesterday reported revenue of $114.4 million in the second quarter, topping the $55.9 million estimate of 20 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The company narrowed its net loss to 85 cents a share, compared with $1.00 a year ago, beating the $1.01 estimate of 17 analysts.
“Merck acknowledged that Victrelis’s complicated dosing has been an issue for physicians,” said Brian Abrahams, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities New York, in a statement to clients today. “The better profile and simpler dosing of Incivek provide important practical advantages for Vertex.”
Merck, based in Whitehouse Station, New Jersey, fell 80 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $34.13 today after announcing it will cut as many as 13,000 jobs by 2015.
To contact the reporter on this story: Oliver Renick in New York at orenick@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor on this story: Reg Gale at rgale5@bloomberg.net.
 












The story will become clear when the full Q3 numbers are in. Anything less that 30% of scrips and 25% of sales dollars is a failure for Merck. They face an uphill battle once doctors prescribing habits get fixed. The HCV community is very keen to promote the best therapy, even if that best is statistically indistinguishable from the second best. That argument doesn't carry weight with the customer. Where are all the negative comments on itchy butts that were supposed to be the deathknell of Vertex?? What will be the impact on PegIntron?
 






The story will become clear when the full Q3 numbers are in. Anything less that 30% of scrips and 25% of sales dollars is a failure for Merck. They face an uphill battle once doctors prescribing habits get fixed. The HCV community is very keen to promote the best therapy, even if that best is statistically indistinguishable from the second best. That argument doesn't carry weight with the customer. Where are all the negative comments on itchy butts that were supposed to be the deathknell of Vertex?? What will be the impact on PegIntron?

Itchy butts not being seen very much. The fact is Vetex has better drug with higher SVR rates and its easier to use. Who wants to use Victrtelis for 44 weeks when you can use Incivek for 12 weeks? Who wants to take 12 pills a day when you can take 6? Who wants to be on Peg Intron for 48 weeks when most treatment naive patients on Incivek will only requie 24 weeks..
You only have the " we cost less " argument and its not working

Vertex Rep Here says: "Who is your Daddy"?
 












The story will become clear when the full Q3 numbers are in. Anything less that 30% of scrips and 25% of sales dollars is a failure for Merck. They face an uphill battle once doctors prescribing habits get fixed. The HCV community is very keen to promote the best therapy, even if that best is statistically indistinguishable from the second best. That argument doesn't carry weight with the customer. Where are all the negative comments on itchy butts that were supposed to be the deathknell of Vertex?? What will be the impact on PegIntron?

Who cares about itchy butts when one product give 66% SVR and is complicated to use, the other gives 80+% SVR and is easy to use, and for shorter duration. This is NO CONTEST folks.
 






"we cost less" isn't working because it all comes down ultimately to formulary placement. and that, comes down to rebates....

MHC has no impact in this fight, as we are at 99% parity. Lets face it, this is a first round knockout. The danger to Vertex Reps though, is that their drug is so superior, and so needed, that it sells itself. Not much need for a rep, ony perhaps Market development, or the like.
 






This is a ridiculous post!!!

FIRST of all.... Vertex WAS running around claiming "victory" in the first 2-3 months.... WHATEVER!!!!!!!!!! Victrelis has a 4 week lead in... So Vertex was comparing themselves to LEAD IN!!! The patients weren't even on Victrelis yet!!!!! It's amazing how Vertex has SHUT UP now that actual Victrelis #'s are kicking in.... Not hearing any of this crap anymore now that we're comparing apple to apples!!
YES... Itchy butts, Fire-rhea (not diarhhea), rash are ABSOLUTELY killing Vertex!!!! We have plans and states that have gone EXCLUSIVE with Victrelis because the "hassle" isn't worth it with Incevik....

Whoever started this post should just LEAVE and go over to Vertex... Oh wait.... You're probably already there!!!!! LOL... Cause anyone on the INSIDE knows the truth!! Nice try!!!
 






This is a ridiculous post!!!

FIRST of all.... Vertex WAS running around claiming "victory" in the first 2-3 months.... WHATEVER!!!!!!!!!! Victrelis has a 4 week lead in... So Vertex was comparing themselves to LEAD IN!!! The patients weren't even on Victrelis yet!!!!! It's amazing how Vertex has SHUT UP now that actual Victrelis #'s are kicking in.... Not hearing any of this crap anymore now that we're comparing apple to apples!!
YES... Itchy butts, Fire-rhea (not diarhhea), rash are ABSOLUTELY killing Vertex!!!! We have plans and states that have gone EXCLUSIVE with Victrelis because the "hassle" isn't worth it with Incevik....

Whoever started this post should just LEAVE and go over to Vertex... Oh wait.... You're probably already there!!!!! LOL... Cause anyone on the INSIDE knows the truth!! Nice try!!!


absolustely killing Vertex? bit of an exaggeration, don't you think? We still are barely getting 25% market share. It's pretty bad over here...
 






When the 3Q numbers come in for Incivek and Victrelis (along with PegIntron and Pegasys), then the true story will become clearer. However, if it looks like Merck is capturing fewer than 25% of the patients for its antiviral, expect some harsh management countermeasures. 25% is the absolutely lowest line in the sand for perscription numbers. Earlier numbers have a lot of variability in them; this market will get very crowded in a couple years and the race between Vertex and Merck will be to establish the new standard of care. 3Q numbers will be published in another 6 weeks. Everyone should keep their BP under control until then.
 






This is a ridiculous post!!!

FIRST of all.... Vertex WAS running around claiming "victory" in the first 2-3 months.... WHATEVER!!!!!!!!!! Victrelis has a 4 week lead in... So Vertex was comparing themselves to LEAD IN!!! The patients weren't even on Victrelis yet!!!!! It's amazing how Vertex has SHUT UP now that actual Victrelis #'s are kicking in.... Not hearing any of this crap anymore now that we're comparing apple to apples!!
YES... Itchy butts, Fire-rhea (not diarhhea), rash are ABSOLUTELY killing Vertex!!!! We have plans and states that have gone EXCLUSIVE with Victrelis because the "hassle" isn't worth it with Incevik....

Whoever started this post should just LEAVE and go over to Vertex... Oh wait.... You're probably already there!!!!! LOL... Cause anyone on the INSIDE knows the truth!! Nice try!!!

Hilarious post! Apples to apples? Are you kidding me? "ABSOLUTELY killing Vertex"....you haven't looked at your sales numbers have you cowboy?
 






When the 3Q numbers come in for Incivek and Victrelis (along with PegIntron and Pegasys), then the true story will become clearer. However, if it looks like Merck is capturing fewer than 25% of the patients for its antiviral, expect some harsh management countermeasures. 25% is the absolutely lowest line in the sand for perscription numbers. Earlier numbers have a lot of variability in them; this market will get very crowded in a couple years and the race between Vertex and Merck will be to establish the new standard of care. 3Q numbers will be published in another 6 weeks. Everyone should keep their BP under control until then.

harsh management countermeasures? You mean I have to be even more obnoxious in my offices?
 












Adam Feuerstein tweeted last night about the numbers and it does not look good for us. Why doesn't management tell us what is really happening? We should know what is happening nationally instead of having to read tweets from an analyst.
 






In three more weeks the quarterly numbers will get published. Numbers will talk and bullshit will walk. No head-start numbers, no partial quarter numbers. And the sales numbers for PegIntron and Pegasys might also reveal if the entire Merck HCV franchise is a bit depressed. Victrelis was originally enthusiastically received by Freddy and Carrie because of its positive impact on PegIntron. As soon as the clincals showed good results, it became its own raison d'etre and not just another PegIntron patent and market extender. That rush to re-invigorate the HCV franchise with these antivirals explains the push to get the earlier but more inferior of the two S-P HCV drugs to market faster (as well as the apparent relative shelving after merger of Old Merck's HCV therapy - which was far enough behind to be considered second generation anyway). But either of S-P's drugs could have been the launch product. Had they chosen the alternate several years ago, it might have been as good or better than Vertex's but probably 2 months behind at launch. First or best. In a market where people care about 2 or 3 % points of cure rate and are sitting with a disease that they have had for 25 years, first might not count as much as best.
 






A tiny startup out of Cambridge kicking our behinds, WHAT a shocker...

Don't let the BS excuses fool you. The strategy and communications plan for our launch was horrible, and our low market share numbers reflect this. We could have had much higher share if we actually had more competent people doing the thinking behind the plan and strategy.
 






This is a ridiculous post!!!

FIRST of all.... Vertex WAS running around claiming "victory" in the first 2-3 months.... WHATEVER!!!!!!!!!! Victrelis has a 4 week lead in... So Vertex was comparing themselves to LEAD IN!!! The patients weren't even on Victrelis yet!!!!! It's amazing how Vertex has SHUT UP now that actual Victrelis #'s are kicking in.... Not hearing any of this crap anymore now that we're comparing apple to apples!!
YES... Itchy butts, Fire-rhea (not diarhhea), rash are ABSOLUTELY killing Vertex!!!! We have plans and states that have gone EXCLUSIVE with Victrelis because the "hassle" isn't worth it with Incevik....

Whoever started this post should just LEAVE and go over to Vertex... Oh wait.... You're probably already there!!!!! LOL... Cause anyone on the INSIDE knows the truth!! Nice try!!!

This sounds like the idiot in Indiana speaking.
 






Funny, if you look at the entire story it also says OVER 80% of MD's haven't started using the drugs. How is that a victory. The 20% that have may be using Victrelis 80% Incivek, but come on 80% more of the market needs to use the drugs first to declare a WIN for either side. So hold tight, wait and see what the months to come bring. Also, managed care will start dictating use AND research centers may not use either drug for their patients as they're enrolling them in new drug studies...