Forced Takeover

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Anonymous

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I believe these buyout rumors today have merit.

I believe there will be a forced takeout due to this management possibly no longer being allowed to manage this company.

I believe that soon enough suitors will know all legal liability they would be inheriting and will also be able to estimate damages of the class actions. Suitors might soon be able to finally put a bid out there knowing all the facts. The bid to shareholders won't be at much of a premium due to the massive legal liability. i believe final takeout will be under 20.
 






Completely agree but final shares would never reach $15.00/shares. Once Dendreon releases the full numbers regarding 4th quarter of 2011, you will notice that due to deep discounts, profit margins have dropped dramatically. Also, Q1 of 2012 will lack enough sales for month of January. Never the less with competitors such as Abiraterone Acetate data in Chemo-Naive patients to be released Q3 of this year as well as MDV 3100 post chemo approval by May of this year as well MDV 3100 compendium listing for Chemo-Naive patients by July of this year. And other therapies such as Bayer, Alpharedian, coming by May 2012. Market would be crowded with therapies that are much easier to administer, cheaper and best of all we know and expect how they work; Provenge becomes the history.
No one/ Government in Europe and or elsewhere has the money to pay for this expensive therapy that lacks knowledge of how it works (Mechanism of Action). Prostvac and Ipilimumab would be the therapies for Prostate Cncer that would be available as a true Immunetherapy with known mechanism of action and of the shelf, ease of use and administration, that would be in market by late 2014 or early 2015. That means end of leukopheresis and end of Dendreon Platform therapy such as Provenge.
So, how any company can pay billions of dollars for Dendreon without chance of having to recover their investment?
Do your calculation, it is simple, I would not pay more than $7.00/share to buy Dendreon. I would challenge anyone who can prove otherwise in this forum and beyond.
 






I imagine any suitor might want to estimate losses in class action at maybe a billion.(victims would maybe get 25% of their losses back). federal stuff would be a lot less than that but significant and some of the federal stuff i would think would be individual suits as well seeking disgorgement of ill gotten gains.
 






Anonymous said:
Completely agree but final shares would never reach $15.00/shares. Once Dendreon releases the full numbers regarding 4th quarter of 2011, you will notice that due to deep discounts, profit margins have dropped dramatically. Also, Q1 of 2012 will lack enough sales for month of January. Never the less with competitors such as Abiraterone Acetate data in Chemo-Naive patients to be released Q3 of this year as well as MDV 3100 post chemo approval by May of this year as well MDV 3100 compendium listing for Chemo-Naive patients by July of this year. And other therapies such as Bayer, Alpharedian, coming by May 2012. Market would be crowded with therapies that are much easier to administer, cheaper and best of all we know and expect how they work; Provenge becomes the history.
No one/ Government in Europe and or elsewhere has the money to pay for this expensive therapy that lacks knowledge of how it works (Mechanism of Action). Prostvac and Ipilimumab would be the therapies for Prostate Cncer that would be available as a true Immunetherapy with known mechanism of action and of the shelf, ease of use and administration, that would be in market by late 2014 or early 2015. That means end of leukopheresis and end of Dendreon Platform therapy such as Provenge.
So, how any company can pay billions of dollars for Dendreon without chance of having to recover their investment?
Do your calculation, it is simple, I would not pay more than $7.00/share to buy Dendreon. I would challenge anyone who can prove otherwise in this forum and beyond.
Click to expand...

Dude is what you said yesterday true? I hope you're right. You've been on top of this. Simple yes/no would suffice.
 






Dude...what are you smoking?! You are way off. Medivation has not even filed with the FDA! The phase 3 data won't be presented until ASCO GU. That means the company must prepare the file for submission and get approval by the FDA within 3 months to meet your prediction? The "F" in FDA does not stand for "fast."

Prostvac just opened up their phase 3 trial with a primary endpoint of overall survival. Ipilimumab is enrolling their phase 3 trial, also with overall survival as the primary endpoint. That means it will take at least 4+ years to complete the study and another 12 months to file with the FDA.

Finally, good phase 2 data does not always translate into good phase 3 data...everyone knows that. How can you predict an FDA approval when the trials haven't gotten any significant enrollment?

Dendreon folks...Watch out. There are a lot of investor-types who are trying to manipulate the stock by spreading rumors and fear. Look at the volume of activity each day for DNDN. It's unbelieveable. These low lifes are fishing.
 


















wow more upside today on takeout rumors that this time seem to be legit. it totally seems to coincide with the fact that management may be in huge trouble with the law and have to move dendreon quickly. timing says it all.
 












To reply # 5.

Read the latest article in JNCI about Provenge. You are completely wrong regarding MDV 3100. Data was submitted and received fast track approval by FDA in Dec 2011. Wake up and smell the roses. I am not an investor in any of the companies nor work for any of them.

Again, you are wrong about Prostvac and Ipi. You sound like a Dendreon employee or a someone who is writing the Provenge to make the money. I have been a Medical oncologist treating CaP for past 20 years. have participated in more than 20 different CaP trials including Taxotere, Cabazi, Abiraterone, MDV 3100, Avastin and many others. When I prescribe a treatment for my patient, I can explain and manage expectations.

In order for Dendreon to receive the final blow, trials do not require to be fully complete, positive interim analysis would be enough to change behaviors. Ipi and Prostvac will most likely be positive. Prostvac has Phase II data and Ipi has POC and positive label in other tumor.

Compendium listing of MDV 3100 based on phase II data in Chemo-naive patients after they have received approval in post Chemo would be sufficient enough.

Again, go answer Chris Parker and colleagues concerns stated in this month JNCI paper.
Let's think about patients first rather than your pocket.
 












That JNCI article is pure junk science intended to smear Provenge.

Check out the favorable New England Journal of Medicine peer reviewed article on Provenge from last year instead.
 






Anonymous said:
That JNCI article is pure junk science intended to smear Provenge.

Check out the favorable New England Journal of Medicine peer reviewed article on Provenge from last year instead.
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lol come on guys. this thread is about crimes committed by this management team and a possible forced takeover due to those crimes. whether or not provenge is good or not is a much more boring topic that could easily be in another new thread.
 






To Reply #10:

You said that MDV3100 will be approved by May 2012 and I said you are wrong. Do you believe that the FDA will grant approval of this drug within 3 months? Even with a fast track “designation,” it will take time for the company to compile its safety database for the NDA file. The FDA will not compromise safety when certain AEs were seen in the phase 1 and 2 studies. MDV3100 will be approved but not until later in the year.

Prostvac reported encouraging phase 2 results but the FDA will still require significant phase 3 clinical data. I’m sure you know that Prostvac has no effect on PSA and PFS, just like Provenge. How will you explain that to your patients? These issues appear to be related to the immunotherapy class. Have you looked at the three-arm trial design for Prostvac? There is no way an interim analysis is going to show anything especially when the investigator can select subsequent treatments upon progression, and there are a lot of different treatments to choose from. Technically, a non-Prostvac arm patient could get Provenge on progression!

Ipilimumab is a tremendous accomplishment for melanoma but there is still much work to be done in prostate cancer. Why is a 10 mg/Kg dose being studied in prostate cancer whereas a 3 mg/Kg is approved in melanoma? Will this impact the incidence of grade 3 and 4 AEs?

I read the JNCI “commentary”. Interesting hypothesis that even the authors admit is only “plausible.” I don’t recognize any of those authors but I do respect their right to voice their opinions. I am more inclined to have faith in Drake from Johns Hopkins and Gulley from the NCI since these two clinicians have extensive experience in immunology and cancer therapeutics with numerous publications in peer-reviewed journals. Believe who you wish but consider the source.
 












Agreed, no one will buy Dendreon. To reply 14 since it appears to be a Dendreon employee who does not practice Medicine.

First of all, Chris Parker and others are well know GU folks who not only practice medicine but also do research. Chris was a PI for Alpharadine. Others are researchers who have done fantastic work in the past. Also, as it has been disclosed. apparently they have been Dendreon advisors in the past.

No one disputes that Chuck and James have are doing lot of work in role of immune therapy in Oncology but I fail to see where James has stood up and has shown how Provenge works. There are many hypothesis but you have to show the proof.

Assuming that Provenge is an active immunotherapy then one has to show the immune status of each patients before and after therapy and most of all have to show in which HLA this therapy works. I have yet to see any HLA typing data and or read about it.

No one dispute role of immune therapy in future cancer treatment. Ipi has already shown that. What is in dispute is lack of scientific evidence, TTP, PFS, etc NOT regulatory endpoint of OS only. How about showing elevation of specific immune markers in all those who had received Provenge during the trial?

You, Dendreon can not even show how any cycles of Taxotere each patient received. Or if those in treatments had received other experimental therapy and for how long. The difference in OS between the arms is easily explainable. Other way is for Dendreon to conduct a head to head trial agains any active therapy such as Taxotere, Abi or others.

MDV 3100 is a once a day pill with established and known mechanism of action (MOA) that does not interfere with patients daily life and planing. Patients can travel with ease, not to worry about Leukapheresis and take his medication anywhere.

Now, as a physician who treats CaP patients, once approved, this would be a treatment of choice. If it does not work, I can stop the treatment and stop billing to the tax payers. You can not say that about Provenge. Take the therapy and start praying and hope that it may work. In a meanwhile, make Dendreon executives reacher.

It is too funny that I see Dendreon sales reps and their managers selling the spread rather than science. They are selling the FDA mandated safety telling me, I make more money by participating in this and other studies. Yes, if you like to sell your soul, you can make lot of money by infusing the treatment that does not have much science behind. Biggest criminals are those who knowingly are doing this.

I am sure federal authorities such as FDA and CMS will soon catch up with Dendreon and those who are committing Medicare fraud by giving Provenge to all to make money for their practice.
 






i heard there were tapes at a sales conference of salespeople being told to sell the spread. there is evidence right there. not really understanding why it takes so long for the law to step in.

i saw in another thread that katherine may have been interviewed by authorities but i see no follow-up.

maybe they just want to be extremely thorough so they have a rock solid court case.
 






Dear #13
The general consensus is that physicians are learned folk considering all the years they spend in university but you sir make an awful lot of grammatical errors not usually expected of such a person, not to mention the proliferation of the ubiquitous spelling checker. Sadly I must come to the conclusion that there is serious doubt about your bona fides. Although I hardily concur that Karma will pay a visit to the despot ruling Dendreon (it certainly is not the shareholders).

I'm just saying....................
 






Anonymous said:
Dear #13
The general consensus is that physicians are learned folk considering all the years they spend in university but you sir make an awful lot of grammatical errors not usually expected of such a person, not to mention the proliferation of the ubiquitous spelling checker. Sadly I must come to the conclusion that there is serious doubt about your bona fides. Although I hardily concur that Karma will pay a visit to the despot ruling Dendreon (it certainly is not the shareholders).

I'm just saying....................
Click to expand...

#13 is me. i'm not the guy having this scientific discussion. i said it should have been in another thread. i think the guy you are debating has beaten you handily so you're doing what any bad sport does which is deflecting and turning to insults and i'm not even the guy you're talking to.
 






It is interesting to know and to see that in meetings, Phil Kantoff first author of Provenge NEJM does not defend Provenge. One should wonder who actually wrote that paper? One should ask how many patients Phil had in the IMPACT trial and when did he start collaborating with Dendreon?

That is why folks question the data and that is why no company will buy Dendreon.
 






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