If Valeant Buys Allergan, Many Docs Will Shift Business, a Survey Finds
By Ed Silverman
—Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg News
While the takeover war between Valeant Pharmaceuticals VRX.T -0.14% and Allergan AGN -1.08% is necessarily devoted to swaying investor sentiment, there is another key constituency to consider – physicians.
After all, doctors represent another type of battleground for drug makers, since their prescribing decisions so readily affect pharmaceutical fortunes. So how might these treasured holders of prescribing pads react if Valeant succeeds in buying Allergan?
As it turns out, a sizeable portion of them have a dour view of the deal. A survey of 100 dermatologists and plastic surgeons – those who use Botox, line fillers and breast implants – finds that 44% will consider shifting business away from the company if the merger and planned cost cuts go through.
“While one could argue the survey overstates the problem, we would argue there is material risk for business loss which will grow over time,” writes Sanford Bernstein analyst Ronny Gal, who sponsored the survey, in an investor note today. Why? The results “suggest a real threat to the aesthetic revenue stream if physicians act as they argue they would.”
Such sentiment goes to the heart of the war of words between Valeant, its ally, activist investor William Ackman, and Allergan, which is best known for marketing the best-selling Botox treatment, and is furiously resisting an unwanted $54 billion takeover bid.
In arguing against the offer, Allergan has told investors that Valeant cost-cutting strategies would make a shell of valuable R&D efforts that have, so far, paid off. Valeant has denied this, but the survey suggests the warning has resonated far and wide enough to concern some physicians.
Gal acknowledges there are some arguments which could be used to dismiss the observations. Such as? Well, he notes that change is always risky and this may disturb some physicians, who also have nothing to lose by being negative. “The actual views are much more moderate,” he writes.
In any event, dissatisfaction can be fixed. “Once Valeant takes over,” he continues, “the company will go on a relationship blitz, explain they are now more customer focused, give extra discounts to show good will and win the relationships back.” The doctors are businesspeople, after all.
On a cynical note, he also points out that they have no option, since the market is an oligopoly. Although Allergan has several widely used products that are bundled into discount packages, the doctors can be expected to stay with the business. even if they are unhappy about new management. Of course, Valeant will have to maintain the goodwill created by Allergan.
But Gal also cautions not to take their views lightly, because the responses are “sharper” than in past surveys. He cites a poll in which similar questions were asked after Valeant acquired Obagi and Medicis. In those instances, 75% to 87% said the deals would not influence their product preferences.
To sum it up, Gal believes the survey “supports the argument that Valeant’s strategy would lead to lower growth and eventual decline of the aesthetic business. The change will be slow and one could argue the Valeant transaction makes financial sense despite the decline. However, it does suggest the argument for maintenance or even acceleration of growth is unsound.”
We have asked Valeant and Allergan for responses and will update you accordingly.
[UPDATE: An Allergan spokeswoman writes us to say that the survey results are "consistent with the feedback Allergan has received from physician societies and patient support groups from around the world, and confirm the value of Allergan’s customer-focused approach, which runs completely counter to Valeant’s strategy."]