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Baird Analyst Day - Patterson 10/2/14
Baird
We still believe likelihood of SIRO moving to a non-exclusive
arrangement on CEREC post the FY'17 expiration of PDCO's 10-year
exclusive is ~50/50 and PDCO management acknowledged yesterday that a
non-exclusive arrangement on this product might help drive faster CAD/CAM
(and CEREC-specific) penetration overall. Either way, though, PDCO doesn't
expect to pay additional fees even if it can work out an exclusive extension
beyond FY'17.
With regards to management’s expectations for its SIRO relationship following the 2017
expiration of the 10-year CEREC exclusive distribution agreement:
We thought management’s message was a bit mixed, although that’s likely explained by uncertainty
that still exists with regards to a potential extension of this agreement. Specifically, CEO Scott
Anderson first noted that he believes opening up CEREC distribution in North America to others
beyond 2017 might help drive accelerating uptake of in-office CAD/CAM in general, which he stated
“would be good for everyone involved, including PDCO.” Anderson also noted that a change to
non-exclusive CEREC distribution in North American would also potentially allow PDCO to sell
other competitive systems if others were to close the competitive gap with CEREC over coming
years.
Our sense initially was that these comments were almost a tacit acknowledgment of the rumors
we’ve increasingly heard that SIRO isn’t 100% satisfied with PDCO currently and may be looking to
open distribution of CEREC and other products to other distributors beyond 2017.
However, Anderson also reminded investors during his presentation that PDCO has certain
performance targets written in to its exclusive distribution agreement with SIRO that, if hit, would
allow PDCO to extend its exclusivity on SIRO products beyond 2017 at its own (PDCO’s own)
choosing.
We frankly hadn’t realized this latter point and believe it throws a wrinkle into the discussion about
whether SIRO will ultimately open up to other North American distributors beyond 2017. Our gut
(and checks with SIRO and other industry sources) suggest that an opening up of CEREC and
other product distribution to HSIC and others is the most likely scenario beyond 2017
Baird
We still believe likelihood of SIRO moving to a non-exclusive
arrangement on CEREC post the FY'17 expiration of PDCO's 10-year
exclusive is ~50/50 and PDCO management acknowledged yesterday that a
non-exclusive arrangement on this product might help drive faster CAD/CAM
(and CEREC-specific) penetration overall. Either way, though, PDCO doesn't
expect to pay additional fees even if it can work out an exclusive extension
beyond FY'17.
With regards to management’s expectations for its SIRO relationship following the 2017
expiration of the 10-year CEREC exclusive distribution agreement:
We thought management’s message was a bit mixed, although that’s likely explained by uncertainty
that still exists with regards to a potential extension of this agreement. Specifically, CEO Scott
Anderson first noted that he believes opening up CEREC distribution in North America to others
beyond 2017 might help drive accelerating uptake of in-office CAD/CAM in general, which he stated
“would be good for everyone involved, including PDCO.” Anderson also noted that a change to
non-exclusive CEREC distribution in North American would also potentially allow PDCO to sell
other competitive systems if others were to close the competitive gap with CEREC over coming
years.
Our sense initially was that these comments were almost a tacit acknowledgment of the rumors
we’ve increasingly heard that SIRO isn’t 100% satisfied with PDCO currently and may be looking to
open distribution of CEREC and other products to other distributors beyond 2017.
However, Anderson also reminded investors during his presentation that PDCO has certain
performance targets written in to its exclusive distribution agreement with SIRO that, if hit, would
allow PDCO to extend its exclusivity on SIRO products beyond 2017 at its own (PDCO’s own)
choosing.
We frankly hadn’t realized this latter point and believe it throws a wrinkle into the discussion about
whether SIRO will ultimately open up to other North American distributors beyond 2017. Our gut
(and checks with SIRO and other industry sources) suggest that an opening up of CEREC and
other product distribution to HSIC and others is the most likely scenario beyond 2017