Base Business Decline, New product failures, and BD incompetence

[anonymous]

Lower stock price and more layoffs!

 

[anonymous]

Lower stock prices, yes, but no layoffs

 

[anonymous]

Lower stock prices, yes, but no layoffs

Not yet

 

[anonymous]

Stock price is not an indicator for lay-offs. Revenue declines YOY are. The reality of limited price increases to achieve "revenue growth" vs actual volume growth will show that Amgen is a no growth company. The game of using price increases to inflate revenue growth is over. Costs have been with AFP to fund the launch of new products (Repatha and Kyprolis) - both failures. Biosimilars of Neupogen/Neulasta are pending with uncertainty surrounding Enbrel biosimilars. With no revenue growth, the middle of the P&L will be cut to show a positive bottom line to the Street. That middle cut means layoffs in 2017 - unless the sales force can actually sell something.

 

[anonymous]

Stock price is not an indicator for lay-offs. Revenue declines YOY are. The reality of limited price increases to achieve "revenue growth" vs actual volume growth will show that Amgen is a no growth company. The game of using price increases to inflate revenue growth is over. Costs have been with AFP to fund the launch of new products (Repatha and Kyprolis) - both failures. Biosimilars of Neupogen/Neulasta are pending with uncertainty surrounding Enbrel biosimilars. With no revenue growth, the middle of the P&L will be cut to show a positive bottom line to the Street. That middle cut means layoffs in 2017 - unless the sales force can actually sell something.

I agree as well. All CEOs are judged by revenue growth since stock price is dependent upon future outlook. Industries such as oil and gas may not have significant growth but they pay out a nice dividend. Gilead's rapid HCV success is now putting pressure on them to continue to grow, which is tough given that they have a large revenue base like Amgen does. My bet is layoffs will be announced mid year or Q3 after two more unsuccessful quarters of negative revenue growth. Repatha outcomes likely positive but the magnitude will not be strong enough to support premium pricing and a large patient population.