Once again, once again, good ole' AZ teams up with another loser company/drug!! But fear not, we have THE most awesome product on the way to save the day......FISH OIL!!!
Following a reassessment of the GLP-1 agonist market, analysts at Barclays moved to dramatically halve their revenue forecasts for AstraZeneca and Bristol-Myers Squibb's diabetes Byetta/Bydureon franchise on Tuesday. The move is significant, not only given the touted position of this franchise as a key growth driver at both companies, but due to the $7 billion joint-acquisition of Amylin last year.
Insight, Analysis & Opinion
In a note to investors, Barclays analyst Mark Purcell says that the GLP-1 agonist class has "settled into a new equilibrium lower than we had previously forecast." Purcell notes that if "optimistically assuming" that revenue growth for the class as a whole continues on a linear trajectory, the GLP-1 market will be worth approximately $7.3 billion in 2020, versus previous estimates of $8.5 billion.
It is the Byetta/Bydureon franchise that emerges as a relative loser from the Barclays downgrade, however, with Purcell revising down 2020 forecasts from $2.9 billion to $1.5 billion.
Purcell concedes that Barclays' revenue forecast for Byetta/Bydureon in 2018 is now some 18 percent below consensus expectations. However, the franchise is likely to remain under the spotlight over the next few quarters, particularly at AstraZeneca where CEO Pascal Soriot has enthused over the company's ability to generate stronger growth from existing businesses as it waits for its late-stage pipeline to mature.
When AstraZeneca presented its Q2 results last month, management conceded that uptake of once-weekly Bydureon was not occurring at a sufficiently rapid pace to offset declining market share for the older once-daily Byetta brand. Sales of Bydureon were $32 million in Q2, some 16 percent below consensus expectations for the quarter, noted analysts at Bloomberg Industries. There is some suggestion that Novo Nordisk has stepped up promotion of its market leading once-daily GLP-1 agonist Victoza in the US market, having failed to secure approval for its long-acting basal insulin Tresiba earlier this year.
According to key opinion leaders (KOLs) recently interviewed by FirstWord's Therapy Trends team, the cumbersome administration of Bydureon remains a major obstacle to uptake (which in many ways appears to offset the convenience of its once-weekly dosing schedule), something that AstraZeneca and Bristol-Myers Squibb are hoping to address by launching a new injection device next year.
Currently, Bydureon is delivered by a 23-gauge needle. KOLs note the large needle size as a potential factor that could lead to prescriber resistance. Another drawback of Bydureon is that the injection has to be reconstituted in six separate steps to mix the microsphere formulation before administration, whereas Byetta and Victoza are available in a prefilled pen.
One KOL told FirstWord "the major issue is the mixing and the size of the needle. We've spent decades saying 'look at the tiny little needles that we're injecting in the case of Byetta or Victoza. They are so tiny you can't even feel them, and are extraordinarily non-painful. If you look at the Bydureon needle, there will be some discomfort associated with it and so I think a lot of it depends upon the patient's pain threshold and queasiness with the concept of doing needles."
The acquisition of Amylin last year may have been completed via a somewhat novel approach – co-acquired by AstraZeneca and Bristol-Myers Squibb – but the two companies now find themselves in something of a bind.
To read more ViewPoints articles, click here.
Following a reassessment of the GLP-1 agonist market, analysts at Barclays moved to dramatically halve their revenue forecasts for AstraZeneca and Bristol-Myers Squibb's diabetes Byetta/Bydureon franchise on Tuesday. The move is significant, not only given the touted position of this franchise as a key growth driver at both companies, but due to the $7 billion joint-acquisition of Amylin last year.
Insight, Analysis & Opinion
In a note to investors, Barclays analyst Mark Purcell says that the GLP-1 agonist class has "settled into a new equilibrium lower than we had previously forecast." Purcell notes that if "optimistically assuming" that revenue growth for the class as a whole continues on a linear trajectory, the GLP-1 market will be worth approximately $7.3 billion in 2020, versus previous estimates of $8.5 billion.
It is the Byetta/Bydureon franchise that emerges as a relative loser from the Barclays downgrade, however, with Purcell revising down 2020 forecasts from $2.9 billion to $1.5 billion.
Purcell concedes that Barclays' revenue forecast for Byetta/Bydureon in 2018 is now some 18 percent below consensus expectations. However, the franchise is likely to remain under the spotlight over the next few quarters, particularly at AstraZeneca where CEO Pascal Soriot has enthused over the company's ability to generate stronger growth from existing businesses as it waits for its late-stage pipeline to mature.
When AstraZeneca presented its Q2 results last month, management conceded that uptake of once-weekly Bydureon was not occurring at a sufficiently rapid pace to offset declining market share for the older once-daily Byetta brand. Sales of Bydureon were $32 million in Q2, some 16 percent below consensus expectations for the quarter, noted analysts at Bloomberg Industries. There is some suggestion that Novo Nordisk has stepped up promotion of its market leading once-daily GLP-1 agonist Victoza in the US market, having failed to secure approval for its long-acting basal insulin Tresiba earlier this year.
According to key opinion leaders (KOLs) recently interviewed by FirstWord's Therapy Trends team, the cumbersome administration of Bydureon remains a major obstacle to uptake (which in many ways appears to offset the convenience of its once-weekly dosing schedule), something that AstraZeneca and Bristol-Myers Squibb are hoping to address by launching a new injection device next year.
Currently, Bydureon is delivered by a 23-gauge needle. KOLs note the large needle size as a potential factor that could lead to prescriber resistance. Another drawback of Bydureon is that the injection has to be reconstituted in six separate steps to mix the microsphere formulation before administration, whereas Byetta and Victoza are available in a prefilled pen.
One KOL told FirstWord "the major issue is the mixing and the size of the needle. We've spent decades saying 'look at the tiny little needles that we're injecting in the case of Byetta or Victoza. They are so tiny you can't even feel them, and are extraordinarily non-painful. If you look at the Bydureon needle, there will be some discomfort associated with it and so I think a lot of it depends upon the patient's pain threshold and queasiness with the concept of doing needles."
The acquisition of Amylin last year may have been completed via a somewhat novel approach – co-acquired by AstraZeneca and Bristol-Myers Squibb – but the two companies now find themselves in something of a bind.
To read more ViewPoints articles, click here.