ALKS & Teva

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"Ouch" wasn't for me...I don't own any ALKS stock. But I do know folks who work there. And while the agreement does resolve some of the unknowns, it still represents a major blow to ALKS revenue & profitability long-term. A generic was always going to happen...eventually. But it will drive changes within ALKS that will impact lots of folks...and not always for the good.
 






I’m not sure if you have an angle here or are just really unaware…Alkermes settled with Amneal for generic with a date of 2028. There was no “eventua,” 2028 potential generic has been known for a while.

Instead of Teva winning and getting something to market imminently (assuming they ever can actually get something manufactured). Or a loss and an appeal and longer uncertainty, Alkermes gave up a year.

Solid outcome and buyers lined up for a piece of the action today.
 






Best worst option was taken. Now is when rep jobs won’t be replaced with larger territories to make as much money as possible before the entire sales force is let go. The beginning of the end.
 






anonymous said:
Best worst option was taken. Now is when rep jobs won’t be replaced with larger territories to make as much money as possible before the entire sales force is let go. The beginning of the end.
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Alkermes is a cheap acquisition for dismantling at best. Days are numbered and higher ups will take their buyout and run. No one in their right mind should be looking at openings here.
 
























anonymous said:
I’m not sure if you have an angle here or are just really unaware…Alkermes settled with Amneal for generic with a date of 2028. There was no “eventua,” 2028 potential generic has been known for a while.

Instead of Teva winning and getting something to market imminently (assuming they ever can actually get something manufactured). Or a loss and an appeal and longer uncertainty, Alkermes gave up a year.

Solid outcome and buyers lined up for a piece of the action today.
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Just unaware. But it does appear Teva got something out of the deal...they can go to market Jan 2027...so a year earlier than Amneal.

Timing isn't important to me...but it is probably important to a lot of old friends.
 






anonymous said:
Just unaware. But it does appear Teva got something out of the deal...they can go to market Jan 2027...so a year earlier than Amneal.

Timing isn't important to me...but it is probably important to a lot of old friends.
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Leaving for Braeburn was a smart move before the ship sinks. More reps will be leaving now to avoid the collapse and not having to hear the lies from senior leadership all is well and your job is safe.
 












Braeburn was probably the safer option Bc Braeburn has such a track record of success when it comes to bringing drugs to market...

There’s as strong a chance no generic comes out as there is one does. No generic vaccines exist because biologics are too expensive to make for the ROI. It’s not like pills.

Guess we ll have to circle back in about 5 years and see where thing stand.
 






anonymous said:
ALKS & Teva agree to allow Teva to market generic Vivitrol starting Jan 2027....but could be earlier. Ouch.
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Dude. Your ignorance is showing. 2027 is 4 years away. That's like 2 lifetimes in the pharmaceutical industry. Will they even be able to manufacture properly? Still questionable. Should they be able to... well do they have a clue on how to market it in the complex reimbursement arena in which it operates? Could they just have been looking to get a quick cash payment? Maybe. So lets say 2027/2028 arrive and viv selling $450M a year. How much would TEVA make in that market with an extremely expensive to produce generic? At most it will just be a bit of downward price pressure for viv if the generic ever sees the light of day. Class for ignorant fools dismissed.
 






When I worked at ALKS I was told the actual production cost per vial was under $200. Could be a BS number but the guy who told me was pretty well connected with no ax to grind. Whistling in the grave yard if you think the science is so complicated it will be too expensive to reverse engineer. Musk started a company that puts rockets into space for a fraction of what NASA was spending...so cracking the code on Vivitrol won't take 6 months.

As far as marketing it'll be the same as for every other generic..."Hey, want to save 80% and get the same medication?" They won't spend a penny on trying to convert Bup users or create new believers...they'll simply target Vivitrol prescribers and address the cost issue.
 






$200 is a lot to spend just to make one generic viial. By the time you try to recoup all the money spent on the facility to make it, getting it approved, packaging it, shipping it, marketing it it, pulling it through, fulfilling it…you’re not going to be able to price it too far below the branded version to get any ROI off $200.
 






anonymous said:
When I worked at ALKS I was told the actual production cost per vial was under $200. Could be a BS number but the guy who told me was pretty well connected with no ax to grind. Whistling in the grave yard if you think the science is so complicated it will be too expensive to reverse engineer. Musk started a company that puts rockets into space for a fraction of what NASA was spending...so cracking the code on Vivitrol won't take 6 months.

As far as marketing it'll be the same as for every other generic..."Hey, want to save 80% and get the same medication?" They won't spend a penny on trying to convert Bup users or create new believers...they'll simply target Vivitrol prescribers and address the cost issue.
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Moron. Tell that to the Abbvie peeps who are still making $1B a year in sales on their injectable Lupron which had their loss of exclusivity over 12 years ago. Teva tried to develop a generic but couldn't and still can't. Research it, fool. Same type of technical/trade secret micro sphere technology. Whether you like it or not this company has some amazing technology and technological processes that are not able to be duplicated. If teva can even get close, what will the release be like? Will it be a true 28 day therapy? Will concentration levels stay in the therapeutic range on a constant basis? Not sure they can do it. All that investment with no certainty for at most a $385 a year drug. I give it at most a 50% chance they can manufacture it and guess they're not sure they want to take the investment risk to even try.
 












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