Given Omars top line growth is being fueled by stents(MDT at close to 50% share according to a stent rep I talked to in Miami last week), he may not be sweating BIO today but if they and abbott both launch absorbable stents in 2015? That multi billion dollar cash cow is in trouble. Bio could go from 1- 3 billion in 12-18 months if they capture even 35% of this market. Bio prints money so what would prevent them from buying a strong TAVR or renal denervation line? nothing. europe is filled with these type companies.
Aint no way Omar can make up that revenue loss with Corevalve, flat CRM and very flat spine business. AAA? unless they buy this new 14 french approved device(trivasive), that is going to be a tough market to grow as well given gores position and md's excitement over a 14 french device.
Renal denervation may be big but its not as lucrative long term given 5-6 companies could have US approval by 2016. Could be today's stent in terms of commodization and if the "ultrasound" type technologies prove less harmful, Ardian could prove to be a very questionable acquisition. Not as bad as Kyphon yet the jury is out here in terms of what it paid vs how long it will be the only technology on the market
You guys need to look at the big picture, CRM is an ok biz margin wise but it is a flat and declining market with little to no innovation forthcoming. Days of clinical studies to assess a mnor algorthim addition are over too, MDs' are too smart to get involved in this nickel and dime market game moving forward given the Sunshine will give some bad sunburn
