I came over for the Praluent launch.
It is NOT going to be OK. I have to agree with anon @5:22 a.m. on the article post.
Here's what I know/believe. PI = Permanent Injunction, by the way:
- Amgen wants us gone, NEVER had the idea of royalties.They won the LAST major patent challenge & injunction case.
- LenS made it pretty clear @JP Morgan conference that Royalties = Guilt = No Way in Hell. http://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/...gan-everything-you-need-to-know-all-one-place and read "Updated Story" article. Trust me, our CEO sees "all or nothing" with AMGN.
- Praluent has [cough] under-performed, and won't turn a profit anytime soon. Still too many mouths to feed after SNFI layoffs. Even if we overturn the PI- we already have thin 2017 budgets. Even a "modest" royalty would impact head count, territory size, ability to compete.
- Managed care will bail. Most Praluent business comes from parity plans, meaning equal opportunity for R or P. Let's face it, the AMGN RAS can do lots more than a REGN FAS to pull through a patient. We already lost a Praluent exclusive plan this year (Tricare); UHC is the only other major commercial player where P>R - for now.
- Success means getting PI overturned, which (per article) happens 23% of the time. The appeal doesn't matter to sales; if you can't sell Praluent, and can't for maybe years, you don't need a sales force! And if our lawyers see we can't overturn the PI, REGN leadership will cut us loose - PDQ.
- Won't go into detail, REGN already has contingency plans with the expectation that PI will remain. Plans might go into effect prior to 45 day suspense.
- Timing is all wrong for PCSK9s! We can't say removing P hurts patients, we only have firm data on a biomarker (LDL-C). In 2017, R will have plaque regression + true outcomes data. P's outcomes - maybe Q1-2018? PBMs still believe $4 generic statins (w/outcomes data) should be maxed out first, and they know patients don't take them. We pushed next step after statins; MC plans added Zetia and we spent a year trying to peel that away. Even branded copay for Zetia + generic Lipitor is way less than Med D co-insurance. We might have a better argument in 5 years.
- Next commercial launch for REGN (RSV) is at best 1.5-2 yrs away. Maybe dupi when it expands its label, but we don't have 6-9 months.
DO NOT buy into the hype that DR, BT, and other sales leaders tell you - it ain't "Business As Usual." Same time they are telling us it's no big deal, and it's going to be fine, they are talking to headhunters as well. Actions speak a lot louder than empty catch phrases.
If we get a miracle (PI gets overturned) great. But it will be a miracle. And nothing the Alliance has done to this point has worked. If someone can point out anything, please post back. I want someone to make me feel better about this, and the picture has just gotten more and more grim the more I learn.
And if the miracle happens, that gets us back to the issue we've had since launch: The Sanofi-Regeneron business relationship has serious flaws.
C'mon, someone throw a ray of sunshine my way... seriously...