Nothing wrong with idle speculation here. It is much like a group of reps sitting around a table at a hotel bar during a sales meeting speculating about a lot of things ranging from who might be in danger of losing their job to what team is going to win that night's football game.
The big unknown here is who comes to the table with good (inside) information and who is just speculating. Certainly the speculation is sometimes way off the mark but sometimes it is amazingly accurate. There are a lot of clues on the trail and most are interpretating those clues with some accuracy. In truth what happened the week before Christmas does not have the dust completely settled yet. Work force reductions were in the works prior to the Tekturna news and now the Tekturna news will deepen those cuts, it does not take a rocket scientist to see that. Folks are taking into what happened last year and that is a good foundation for the current speculation. Also hard information from a few, but they cannot give their identity away and the waters are often muddied by those who are throwing a lot of dirt in the air.
Okay speculation #1: They are going to do things fast right after New years it's too expensive otherwise. The hotel reservations for the meetings are being re-calibrated for a smaller number of employees. Hotel business is down and they're more than happy to accommodate the reservation change. They will act fast so employees do not have time to think about their options ie. taking sick days, etc. etc.
The warn act can start in Jan saving them the money they need to pay the Alcon bill. News in Jan will be focusing on the payroll cut, unemployment compensation extension. If I were Novartis I would do it in Jan yet they're not that smart so maybe they'll wait. Sometimes they're wasteful business practices can work in everyones favor.
In view of industry changes, the pipeline, the patent expirations and the sudden product withdrawals I don't see how anyone could see anything less than MAJOR work force reductions, likely, and this is my speculation, at least 50% of current numbers. One could argue "why that high", but you can also say that a new product could bring in a new "starting level" sales force with just a 3 month lead. That is what happened back in 1995 when Sandoz contracted with Innovex to hire and train a new 450 rep sales force to launch Lamisil - 2 months to interview and hire and really less than 1 month to train (during December) before hitting the field to promote Lescol first, and then Lamisil when it launched.
I really don't think however (once again, my speculation, not based on inside information) that reps now covering cardiovascular will be cross trained to cover Reclast in any great numbers. Maybe a few, but really very little. Reclast is perhaps more highly dependent upon relationships that take a while to build. The company knows that and how much can be regained in that market place with a new rep with the little time left for Reclast.
So nothing wrong with speculation, it may bring new ideas to the table and it is better to vent to others in the same situation that to keep everything bottled up inside.