Company Status













Who's going to buy this zombie of a company? Not Valeant even though they've done some distribution deals with Orexigen. They are trying to pay their debt down and get acquired themselves. Contrave Mysimba sales are less then 70 million. The big problem like the other two obesity drugs is that there is no reimbursement, patients have to pay out of their own pocket. What is the retention rate after patients start therapy? A lot of people have left the company, no pipeline and no cash or stock appreciation to acquire a meaningful product. Just a matter of time before they close the doors on one of the nicest offices in the industry, right next to Torrey Pines golf course in La Jolla over looking the pacific.
 












Just the market leading drug, in the largest untreated disease state in the US. That has to be treated sooner than later because of cost reasons for the payers.

The obesity market is about to break wide open, there’s a reason Novo doubled down on this market. Smart money is moving from diabetes to rare disease drugs and obesity. Lots of headwinds but it’s only a matter of time.
 




Thanks Tom. Part of your statement is true, there's a big unmet need for an effective and safe drug to treat obesity. Unfortunately according to some experts, Contrave or the other two obesity drugs do not result in any clinically meaningful sustained weight loss. All three obesity drugs can have major side effects, some very serious. Until one of the companies conducts a large clinical study that shows cost effectiveness they may not be reimbursed. Speaking of studies all three companies need to complete a large roughly 200 million dollar cardiovascular outcomes study. No one has finished, although positive results would help with reimbursement. Look at Jardiance for a good example of a well run study and drug with a Cardiovascular benefit:

https://diatribe.org/jardiance-first-diabetes-drug-reduce-to-risk-of-heart-related-death

Orexigen will go down in history as making one of the biggest flub ups in their cardiovascular outcomes study. Like the one article stated Orexigen keeps trying to tape a clown wig on. For those people in the non-glamorous drug development and reg areas this is beyond comical, sad example of executives making incredibly stupid decisions, managed to piss off uber-KOLs and top people at FDA. Read on here:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/2993046-orexigen-what-happened-and-whats-next

https://www.fool.com/investing/gene...-for-orexigen-therapeutics-incs-mind-num.aspx

https://www.fool.com/investing/gene...lights-out-for-orexigen-therapeutics-inc.aspx

http://www.cardiobrief.org/2016/04/13/orexigen-terminates-another-cardiovascular-outcomes-trial/

http://www.cardiobrief.org/2016/03/08/controversial-ill-fated-obesity-drug-trial-published-in-jama/

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/844575

http://www.ajmc.com/newsroom/results-and-lessons-from-the-abandoned-light-study
 




Thanks Tom. Part of your statement is true, there's a big unmet need for an effective and safe drug to treat obesity. Unfortunately according to some experts, Contrave or the other two obesity drugs do not result in any clinically meaningful sustained weight loss. All three obesity drugs can have major side effects, some very serious. Until one of the companies conducts a large clinical study that shows cost effectiveness they may not be reimbursed. Speaking of studies all three companies need to complete a large roughly 200 million dollar cardiovascular outcomes study. No one has finished, although positive results would help with reimbursement. Look at Jardiance for a good example of a well run study and drug with a Cardiovascular benefit:

https://diatribe.org/jardiance-first-diabetes-drug-reduce-to-risk-of-heart-related-death

Orexigen will go down in history as making one of the biggest flub ups in their cardiovascular outcomes study. Like the one article stated Orexigen keeps trying to tape a clown wig on. For those people in the non-glamorous drug development and reg areas this is beyond comical, sad example of executives making incredibly stupid decisions, managed to piss off uber-KOLs and top people at FDA. Read on here:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/2993046-orexigen-what-happened-and-whats-next

https://www.fool.com/investing/gene...-for-orexigen-therapeutics-incs-mind-num.aspx

https://www.fool.com/investing/gene...lights-out-for-orexigen-therapeutics-inc.aspx

http://www.cardiobrief.org/2016/04/13/orexigen-terminates-another-cardiovascular-outcomes-trial/

http://www.cardiobrief.org/2016/03/08/controversial-ill-fated-obesity-drug-trial-published-in-jama/

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/844575

http://www.ajmc.com/newsroom/results-and-lessons-from-the-abandoned-light-study
 




Part of your statement is true, there's a big unmet need for an effective and safe drug to treat obesity. Unfortunately according to some experts, Contrave or the other two obesity drugs do not result in any clinically meaningful sustained weight loss. All three obesity drugs can have major side effects, some very serious. Until one of the companies conducts a large clinical study that shows cost effectiveness and a reduction in cardiovascular outcomes they may not be reimbursed. Speaking of studies all three companies need to complete a large roughly 200 million dollar cardiovascular outcomes study. No one has finished, although positive results would help with reimbursement. Look at Jardiance for a good example of a well run study and drug with a Cardiovascular benefit:

https://diatribe.org/jardiance-first-diabetes-drug-reduce-to-risk-of-heart-related-death

Orexigen will go down in history as making one of the biggest flub ups in their cardiovascular outcomes study. Like the one article stated Orexigen keeps trying to tape a clown wig on. For those people in the non-glamorous drug development and reg areas this is beyond comical, sad example of executives making incredibly stupid decisions, managed to piss off uber-KOLs and top people at FDA. Read on here:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/2993046-orexigen-what-happened-and-whats-next

https://www.fool.com/investing/gene...-for-orexigen-therapeutics-incs-mind-num.aspx

https://www.fool.com/investing/gene...lights-out-for-orexigen-therapeutics-inc.aspx

http://www.cardiobrief.org/2016/04/13/orexigen-terminates-another-cardiovascular-outcomes-trial/

http://www.cardiobrief.org/2016/03/08/controversial-ill-fated-obesity-drug-trial-published-in-jama/

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/844575

http://www.ajmc.com/newsroom/results-and-lessons-from-the-abandoned-light-study
 












I have never worked for a more incompetent company. The same people who all got let go from Merck were giving a second chance, and what did they do? They botched a clinical study, spent 30 million dollars on a terrible commercial, didn't listen to their reps, and measured success based off market share vs a generic we should have never targeted in the first place. Very happy to have this place in my rear view mirror.
 




Don't shut the lights off yet. There is still value in the stock at 13 cents a share. Plus you have to believe in the ex-Merck misfits running this place even though they were all shown the door at Merck. But it wasn't their fault. Good luck, god bless and please shut the lights out on the way out.
 




Nobody to blame but themselves. Critical mistake was the cardiovascular outcomes study; trying to patent the benefit long before the study was over, disclosing the blinded results to over 100 people including stock analysts, pissing off FDA and Uber KOLs and then cancelling the study which when about 35% compete showed no benefit. 200 million down the drain and FDA asking for a new 200 million dollar study, that broke their financial backs. Who was behind this incredibly stupid strategy, the Orexigen board, Preston, CEO Mike, the Merck clowns? We will never know but major lesson for the industry, something that will go down in history as one of the most ill conceived strategies ever.
 




I have never worked for a more incompetent company. The same people who all got let go from Merck were giving a second chance, and what did they do? They botched a clinical study, spent 30 million dollars on a terrible commercial, didn't listen to their reps, and measured success based off market share vs a generic we should have never targeted in the first place. Very happy to have this place in my rear view mirror.

Whoever hired Beth the VP should be held culpable for this huge disaster. Beth is the biggest lunatic in Pharma
 




Beth was a bad hire, they got rid of her last year. Other PIA from Valeant they brought onto the board was curious, maybe they thought she could help with an acquisition by Valeant. Just put this one in the rear view mirror, bad management and many lessons learned to avoid in the future.