The sellside’s most controversial products

Certain circumstances make forecasting future drug sales particularly tricky – a global pandemic, for example – but such are the trials of a sellside analyst. Some products will always prompt more divergence than others, however, so Evaluate Vantage scoured consensus forecasts to find biopharma’s most controversial blockbusters.

Merck & Co’s Keytruda stands out, with a huge $11bn spread between the highest and lowest forecast for sales in 2026; the checkpoint inhibitor is expected to be biopharma’s biggest-selling drug that year. Biogen’s newly approved Alzheimer’s antibody, Aduhelm, and a couple of Covid-19 products also feature, while it seems that not all analysts are convinced that Intracellular Therapeutics’ Caplyta has a blockbuster future.